[1] |
Hansen A J, Neilson R P, Dale V H, et al.Global change in forests: Responses of species, communities, and biomes. BioScience, 2001, 51(9): 775-779.
|
[2] |
Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R, et al.Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 2005, 310: 1333-1337.
doi: 10.1126/science.1115233
pmid: 16254151
|
[3] |
Karl T R, Trenberth K E.Modern global climate change. Science, 2003, 302: 1719-1723.
doi: 10.1126/science.1090228
|
[4] |
Foley J A, Defries R, Asner G P, et al.Global consequences of land use. Science, 2005, 309: 570-574.
doi: 10.1126/science.1111772
|
[5] |
Parmesan C, Yohe G.A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 2003, 421: 37-42.
doi: 10.1038/nature01286
|
[6] |
Drummond M A, Loveland T R.Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the eastern United States. BioScience, 2010, 60(4): 286-298.
doi: 10.1525/bio.2010.60.4.7
|
[7] |
Rounsevell M D A, Arneth A, Brown D G, et al. Incorporating human behaviour and decision making processes in land use and climate system models .GLP Report No.7. GLP-IPO, São José dos Campos, 2012.
|
[8] |
Liu J G, Mooney H, Hull V, et al.Systems integration for global sustainability. Science, 2015, 374: 1258832.
|
[9] |
Schindler D E, Hilborn R.Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change. Science, 2015, 347: 953-954.
doi: 10.1126/science.1261824
|
[10] |
Boisvenue C, Running S W.Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity: Evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Global Change Biology, 2006, 12: 862-882.
doi: 10.1111/gcb.2006.12.issue-5
|
[11] |
Bertrand R, Lenoir J, Piedallu C, et al.Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests. Nature, 2011, 479: 517-520.
doi: 10.1038/nature10548
pmid: 22012261
|
[12] |
Michaletz S T, Cheng D, Kerkhoff A J, et al.Convergence of terrestrial plant production across global climate gradients. Nature, 2014, 512: 39-43.
doi: 10.1038/nature13470
pmid: 25043056
|
[13] |
Dai E F, Wu Z, Ge Q S, et al.Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCPs scenarios in southern China. Global Change Biology, 2016, 22: 3642-3661.
doi: 10.1111/gcb.13307
pmid: 27029713
|
[14] |
Fearnside P M.Global warming and tropical land-use change: Greenhouse gas emissions from biomass burning, decompotition and soils in forest conversion, shifting cultivation and secondary vegetation. Climatic Change, 2000, 46: 115-158.
doi: 10.1023/A:1005569915357
|
[15] |
Mickler R A, Earnhardt T S, Moore J A.Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass. Environmental Pollution, 2002, 116: S7-S16.
doi: 10.1016/S0269-7491(01)00241-X
pmid: 11833920
|
[16] |
Payette S, Filion L, Delwaide A, et al.Reconstruction of tree-line vegetation response to long-term climate change. Nature, 1989, 341: 429-432.
doi: 10.1038/341429a0
|
[17] |
Medlyn B, Barton C, Broadmeadow M, et al.Stomatal conductance of forest species after long-term exposure to elevated CO2 concentration: A synthesis. New Phytologist, 2001, 149: 247-264.
doi: 10.1046/j.1469-8137.2001.00028.x
|
[18] |
Rudel T K, Coomes O T, Moran E, et al.Forest transitions: Towards a global understanding of land use change. Global Environmental Change, 2005, 15: 23-31.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.11.001
|
[19] |
Gustafson E J, Shvidenko A Z, Sturtevant B, et al.Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. Ecological Applications, 2010, 20(3): 700-715.
doi: 10.1890/08-1693.1
pmid: 20437957
|
[20] |
Schröter D, Acosta-Michlik L, Arnell A W, et al.ATEAM Final Report 2004. Potsdam: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2004.
|
[21] |
Nepstad D C, Stickler C M, Filho B S, et al.Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: Prospects for a near-term forest tipping point. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 2008, 363: 1737-1746.
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2007.0036
pmid: 2373903
|
[22] |
Thompson J R, Foster D R, Scheller R M, et al.The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA. Ecological Applications, 2011, 21: 2425-2444.
doi: 10.1890/10-2383.1
pmid: 22073633
|
[23] |
Gao Zhiqiang, Liu Jiyuan, Cao Mingkui, et al.Impacts of land use and climate change on ecosystem productivity and carbon circulation in the transition between farm and grassland. Science in China (Series D), 2004, 34(10): 946-957.
|
|
[高志强, 刘纪远, 曹明奎, 等. 土地利用和气候变化对农牧过渡区生态系统生产力和碳循环的影响. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 2004, 34(10): 946-957.]
|
[24] |
Gao Zhiqiang, Liu Jiyuan, Cao Mingkui, et al.Impact of land use and climate change on regional net primary productivity. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(4): 581-591.
|
|
[高志强, 刘纪远, 曹明奎, 等. 土地利用和气候变化对区域净初级生产力的影响. 地理学报, 2004, 59(4): 581-591.]
|
[25] |
Guo Junting, Zhang Zhiqiang, Wang Shengping, et al.Appling SWAT model to explore the impact of changes in land use and climate on the streamflow in a watershed of northern China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(6): 1559-1567.
doi: 10.5846/stxb201304190746
|
|
[郭军庭, 张志强, 王盛萍, 等. 应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响. 生态学报, 2014, 34(6): 1559-1567.]
doi: 10.5846/stxb201304190746
|
[26] |
Liu Shirong, Wu Shuirong, Wang Hui.Managing planted forests for multiple uses under a changing environment in China. New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science, 2014, 44(Suppl. 1): S3.
doi: 10.1186/1179-5395-44-S1-S3
|
[27] |
Liu S R, Lin Y, Zhang Y D, et al.Landscape ecology contributions to forestry and forest management in China: Progresses and research needs//Li C, Lafortezza R, Chen J Q. Landscape Ecology in Forest Management and Conservation. Beijing: Springer, Higher Education Press, 2011.
|
[28] |
Wang Y D, Li Q K, Wang H M, et al.Precipitation frequency controls interannual variation of soil respiration by affecting soil moisture in a subtropical forest plantation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2011, 41(9): 1897-1906.
doi: 10.1139/x11-105
|
[29] |
Thompson J R, Simons-Legaard E, Legaard K, et al.A LANDIS-II extension for incorporating land use and other disturbances. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016, 75: 202-205.
doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.021
|
[30] |
Scheller R M, Domingo J B, Sturtevant B R, et al.Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution. Ecological Modelling, 2007, 201: 409-419.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.10.009
|
[31] |
Mladenoff D J, He H S.Design and behavior of LANDIS, an object-oriented model of forest landscape disturbance and succession//Mladenoff D J, Baker W L. Spatial Modeling of Forest Landscape Change: Approaches and Applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
|
[32] |
Scheller R M, Mladenoff D J.A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA. Global Change Biology, 2005, 11: 307-321.
doi: 10.1111/gcb.2005.11.issue-2
|
[33] |
Chen X Y, Li W G, Pan Q M, et al.Studies on spacial distribution and the spread distance of pollen in Chinese fir seed orchards. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 1996, 18(2): 24-30.
doi: 10.1007/BF02951625
|
|
[陈晓阳, 李文刚, 潘奇敏, 等. 杉木种子园花粉空间分布和传播距离的研究. 北京林业大学学报, 1996, 18(2): 24-30.]
doi: 10.1007/BF02951625
|
[34] |
Editorial Committee of Forest of China. Forest of China (Vols.2&3). Beijing: China Forestry Publishing House, 2000.
|
|
[中国森林编辑委员会. 中国森林(第二、三卷). 北京: 中国林业出版社, 2000.]
|
[35] |
Aber J D, Federer C A.A generalized, lumped-parameter model of photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and net primary production in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Oecologia, 1992, 92: 463-474.
doi: 10.1007/BF00317837
pmid: 28313216
|
[36] |
Xu C G, Gertner G Z, Scheller R M.Uncertainties in the response of a forest landscape to global climatic change. Global Change Biology, 2009, 15: 116-131.
doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01705.x
|
[37] |
Yu Q Z, Wang S Q, Shi H, et al.An evaluation of spaceborne imaging spectrometry for estimation of forest canopy Nitrogen concentration in a subtropical conifer plantation of southern China. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2014, 5(1): 1-10.
doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2014.01.001
|
[38] |
Wu Zhonglun. Chinese Fir.Beijing: China Forestry Publishing House, 1984.
|
|
[吴中伦. 杉木. 北京:中国林业出版社, 1984.]
|
[39] |
Editorial Committee of Encyclopedia of Chinese Agriculture. Encyclopedia of Chinese Agriculture: Forestry Volume. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 1989.
|
|
[中国农业百科全书编辑委员会. 中国农业百科全书: 林业卷. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 1989.
|
[40] |
Sheng Wenping, Ren Shujie, Yu Guirui, et al.Patterns and driving factors of WUE and NUE in natural forest ecosystems along the North-South Transect of Eastern China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011, 21: 651-665.
doi: 10.1007/s11442-011-0870-5
|
[41] |
Fang Jingyun, Chen Anping, Peng Changhui, et al.Changes in forest biomass carbon storage in China between 1949 and 1998. Science, 2001, 292: 2320-2322.
doi: 10.1126/science.1058629
pmid: 11423660
|
[42] |
Mi Na, Yu Guirui, Wen Xuefa, et al.Responses of subtropical conifer plantation to future climate change: A simulation study. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2008, 19(9): 1877-1883.
|
|
[米娜, 于贵瑞, 温学发, 等. 中亚热带人工针叶林对未来气候变化的响应. 应用生态学报, 2008, 19(9): 1877-1883.]
|
[43] |
Wittig V E, Bernacchi C J, Zhu X G, et al.Gross primary production is stimulated for three Populus species grown under free-air CO2 enrichment from planting through canopy closure. Global Change Biology, 2005, 11: 644-656.
doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00934.x
|
[44] |
Cojocariu C, Escher P, Häberle K H, et al.The effect of ozone on the emission of carbonyls from leaves of adult Fagus sylvatica. Plant, Cell and Environment, 2005, 28: 603-611.
doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3040.2005.01305.x
|
[45] |
Huang W J, Zhou G Y, Liu J X, et al.Shifts in soil phosphorus fractions under elevated CO2 and N addition in model forest ecosystems in subtropical China. Plant Ecology, 2014, 215: 1373-1384.
doi: 10.1007/s11258-014-0394-z
|
[46] |
Scheller R M, Mladenoff D J.A forest growth and biomass module for a landscape simulation model, LANDIS: Design, validation, and application. Ecological Modelling, 2004, 180: 211-229.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.01.022
|
[47] |
Scheller R M, Domingo J B, Sturtevant B R, et al.Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution. Ecological Modelling, 2007, 201: 409-419.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.10.009
|
[48] |
Wu Dan, Shao Quanqin, Liu Jiyuan, et al.Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest carbon storage in Taihe County of Jiangxi Province in 1985-2030. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2011, 22(1): 41-46.
|
|
[吴丹, 邵全琴, 刘纪远, 等. 1985-2030年江西泰和县森林植被碳储量的时空动态. 应用生态学报, 2011, 22(1): 41-46.]
|
[49] |
Tebaldi C, Knutti R.The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2007, 365: 2053-2075.
doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2076
|
[50] |
Yu Qiangyi, Wu Wenbin, Tang Huajun, et al.Complex system theory and agent-based modeling: progresses in land change science. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(11): 1518-1530.
doi: 10.11821/xb201111008
|
|
[余强毅, 吴文斌, 唐华俊, 等.复杂系统理论与Agent模型在土地变化科学中的研究进展. 地理学报, 2011, 66(11): 1518-1530.]
doi: 10.11821/xb201111008
|