地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (9): 1539-1554.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201709001

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土地利用和气候变化对森林地上生物量的影响模拟——以江西省泰和县为例

吴卓1,2,3(), 戴尔阜1,2(), 葛全胜1, 奚为民4, 汪晓帆1,2,5   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3. 广州大学地理科学学院,广州 510006
    4. 德克萨斯A&M大学,Kingsville,美国 德克萨斯州 78363;
    5. 中国土地勘测规划院国土资源部土地利用重点实验室,北京 100035
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-10 修回日期:2017-06-06 出版日期:2017-09-30 发布日期:2017-09-30
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：吴卓(1988-), 男, 博士, 中国地理学会会员(S110010054M), 主要研究方向为土地利用与生态过程。E-mail: wuz.14b@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2015CB452702);国家自然科学基金项目(41571098, 41371196, 41530749);中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-4);中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院重大咨询项目(Y02015003)

Modelling the integrated effects of land use and climate change scenarios on forest aboveground biomass: A case study in Taihe County of China

Zhuo WU1,2,3(), Erfu DAI1,2(), Quansheng GE1, Weimin XI4, Xiaofan WANG1,2,5   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
    4. Department of Biological and Health Sciences, Texas A&M University, Kingsville, Texas 78363, USA;
    5. Key Laboratory of Land Use, Ministry of Land and Resources, China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035, China
  • Received:2016-12-10 Revised:2017-06-06 Published:2017-09-30 Online:2017-09-30
  • Supported by:
    National Key Basic Research Program of China, No.2015CB452702;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41571098, No.41371196, No.41530749;Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-4;A Major Consulting Project of Strategic Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.Y02015003

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摘要：

以土地利用变化和气候变化为特征的全球和区域环境变化及其影响已经成为国际社会和公众关注的焦点,同时也是土地科学、全球变化科学和全球生态学关注的关键问题。由于土地、气候和森林生态系统之间存在着复杂而密切的关系,土地利用变化和气候变化将不可避免地对森林结构和功能产生重要影响。如何采用合理的适应措施降低这些变化可能带来的损失,是目前全球变化研究亟待解决的问题之一。因此,研究土地利用和气候变化对森林的单独及综合影响具有重要的科学意义。本文综合利用基于主体的土地利用模型（ABM/LUCC）、生态系统过程模型（PnET-II）以及森林景观动态模型（LANDIS-II）构建了综合模拟研究框架,选择森林类型多样且具有长期观测数据积累的江西省泰和县为研究区,模拟并对比了土地利用和气候变化组合情景下未来森林地上总生物量的变化差异。结果表明：① 土地利用变化对泰和县森林地上总生物量的影响比气候变化所带来的影响更加显著。研究区森林地上总生物量在有土地利用变化干扰的情景下与RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5单独的气候情景下相比分别减少33.13%、32.92%和32.42%;② 尽管未来气候变化可能有利于森林地上总生物量的积累,但土地利用变化将使森林地上总生物量显著减少,并将抵消气候变化带来的正效应;③ 本文提出的综合模拟研究框架可以很好地模拟土地利用和气候变化对森林生态系统的影响,可为提升和优化人工林结构和功能、开展可持续森林管理提供科学建议。

关键词: RCPs, 森林地上生物量, ABM/LUCC, LANDIS-II, 江西省泰和县

Abstract:

Global and regional environmental change such as land use and climate change have significant and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to respond and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change (ABM/LUCC), an ecosystem process model (PnET-II), and a forest dynamic landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the change of forest total aboveground biomass (AGB), which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period 2010-2050 in Taihe County of southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest total AGB. The results show that: (1) land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion, and climate change are likely to influence forest total AGB in the near future in Taihe County. (2) Although climate change will make a contribution to an increase in the forest total AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in forest total AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest total AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 33.13% (RCP2.6+land use), 32.92% (RCP4.5+land use), and 32.42% (RCP8.5+land use) by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance. (3) The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function, and developing measures for sustainable forest management.

Key words: RCPs, forest aboveground biomass, ABM/LUCC, LANDIS-II, Taihe County