东北地区未来气候变化对农业气候资源的影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb201707010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探求未来气候变化对东北地区农业气候资源的影响,本文基于区域气候模式系统输出的东北地区IPCC AR5提出的低辐射和高辐射强迫RCP_4.5（低排放）、RCP_8.5（高排放）情景下2005-2099年气象资料,通过与东北地区1961-2010年91个气象站点观测资料同化,分析了历史资料（Baseline）、RCP_4.5、RCP_8.5情景下东北地区农业热量资源和降水资源空间分布及其变化趋势。结果表明：① 年均温度空间分布自南向北降低,未来各地区温度均有升高,RCP_8.5情景下升温更明显,Baseline情景年均温度为7.70 ℃,RCP_4.5和RCP_8.5年均温度分别为9.67 ℃、10.66 ℃;其他农业热量资源随温度变化一致,具体≥ 10 ℃初日提前3 d、4 d,初霜日推迟2 d、6 d,生长季日数延长4 d、10 d,积温增加400 ℃·d、700 ℃·d;水资源稍有增加,但不明显。② 历史增温速率为0.35 ℃/10a,未来增温速率最快为RCP_8.5情景0.48 ℃/10a,高于RCP_4.5的0.19 ℃/10a。21世纪后期,RCP_8.5增温趋势明显快于RCP_4.5,北部地区增温更加速。其他农业热量资源随温度变化趋势相一致,但具体空间分布有所不同。生长季降水总体呈增加趋势,但不显著,年际间变化较大;东部地区降水增加,西部减少。未来东北地区总体向暖湿方向发展,热量资源整体增加,但与降水的不匹配可能将会对农业生产造成不利的影响。

关键词: 气候变化, 农业气候资源, 东北地区, 数据同化

Abstract:

Aiming at examining the responses of agro-climate resource to climate change in Northeast China, this study explores the 1960-2099 daily climatic data of regional model simulation in RCP_4.5 and RCP_8.5 scenarios, assimilated with 1961-2010 ground observations from 91 meteorological stations. Agroclimate heat resources and water resources in scenarios are analyzed and the findings are obtained as follows: (1) The annual mean temperature decreases from south to north and is projected to increase across the study region. Obviously, the temperature is higher in the high emission scenario. The annual mean temperature of the baseline, RCP_4.5 and RCP_8.5 is 7.70 ℃, 9.67 ℃ and 10.66 ℃, respectively. The changes of other agro-climate heat resources are similar with those of the temperature. For example, the start date ≥10 ℃ has advanced by 3 d and 4 d; the first frost date has delayed by 2 d and 6 d; the growing season is prolonged by 4 d and 10 d; and the accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ has increased by 400 ℃·d and 700 ℃·d, respectively. In addition, water resources have a slight increase. (2) The average temperature growth rate of climatic trendency is 0.35 ℃/10 a historically. The highest increasing rate of annual average temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario is 0.48 ℃/10a in the high emission scenario, compared with 0.19 ℃/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario in the low emission scenario. By the end of this century, the warming trend in RCP_8.5 would be faster than that in RCP_4.5 especially in the north of the study region. Other agro-climate heat resources have similar trends with the temperature, but their spatial distribution varies in different parts of the region. Precipitation in growing season is projected to increase although the trend is not statistically significant and has distinct inter-annual variations. Precipitation increases in the east part of the study region, while it decreases in the west. Overall Northeast China is getting warmer and wetter in the future with increased heat resources. However, the imbalance with water resources may have negative impacts on agricultural productivities.

Key words: climate change, agro-climate resources, Northeast China, data assimilation

初征, 郭建平, 赵俊芳. 东北地区未来气候变化对农业气候资源的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(7): 1248-1260.

Zheng CHU, Jianping GUO, Junfang ZHAO. Impacts of projected climate change on agricultural climate resources in Northeast China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(7): 1248-1260.

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	实测值	同化前				同化后
	实测值	平均值		误差	均方根误差(RMSE)	平均值	误差	均方根误差(RMSE)
年降水量(P)	547.50	959.95	412.45	1.1238		540.20	7.30	0.5616
年均温度(T)	4.52	4.24	0.28	4.0893		4.70	0.18	2.9605
年均最低气温(T_min)	-1.18	-0.43	0.75	3.6150		-0.94	0.24	3.4786
年均最高气温(T_max)	10.86	9.71	1.15	9.6059		11.07	0.21	8.2661

	年均温度(℃)	≥ 10 ℃初日(d)	初霜日(d)	可能生长季(d)	生长季积温(℃·d)	生长季降水(mm)
Baseline情景	7.70	128	292	183	3435	608
RCP_4.5情景	9.67	125	294	187	3867	624
RCP_8.5情景	10.66	124	298	193	4127	619