地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (6): 1049-1062.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201706008
收稿日期:
2016-10-09
修回日期:
2017-03-07
出版日期:
2017-06-25
发布日期:
2017-06-25
作者简介:
作者简介:崔娜娜(1990-), 女, 河南周口人, 博士生, 主要研究方向为城市与区域规划、土地与房地产经济。E-mail:
基金资助:
Nana CUI1,2(), Changchun FENG1,2(
), Yu SONG3
Received:
2016-10-09
Revised:
2017-03-07
Online:
2017-06-25
Published:
2017-06-25
Supported by:
摘要:
以2004-2015年北京市六环内居住用地的交易样本为基本数据,借助ArcGIS、GS+、Surfer和Geoda软件,采用空间趋势面分析、最近邻指数(NNI)、探索性空间分析(ESDA)探讨居住用地出让和居住地价的空间格局特征,并对比OLS和空间回归模型(SLM和SEM)进一步探讨居住地价的影响因素。结果表明:① 北京市居住用地出让数量和出让面积不均衡,五六环间出让的居住用地最多。② 出让地块沿主要道路(如京石高速、京开高速、京沪高速及京藏高速)、地铁线(如地铁1号线、5号线、6号线、15号线、房山线、大兴线及亦庄线)呈轴线扩散,其中远郊区域这一特征更加明显。③ 居住地价从中心向外围总体表现“倒U型”趋势,且呈多中心圈层递减结构。④ 呈集聚分布模式,存在空间自相关,低值集聚区和高值集聚区明显。⑤ 模型对比方面,SLM>SEM>OLS,说明北京市居住地价存在实质性的空间依赖,而非干扰性的空间依赖。周边居住地块的价格、公交站、地铁站、重点小学、占地面积、容积率和出让方式对居住地价有显著影响。
崔娜娜, 冯长春, 宋煜. 北京市居住用地出让价格的空间格局及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(6): 1049-1062.
Nana CUI, Changchun FENG, Yu SONG. Spatial pattern of residential land parcels and determinants of residential land price in Beijing since 2004[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(6): 1049-1062.
表2
变量描述"
解释变量 | 变量描述 | 数据来源 | 均值 | 标准差 |
---|---|---|---|---|
居住地块单价(land_price) | 每平方米出让居住地块的成交价格(元/m2) | 样本交易数据 | 25458 | 19145 |
天安门(Tiananmen) | 地块到天安门距离(m) | 实测距离 | 18242 | 6459 |
公交站(Bus) | 地块到最近公交站的距离(m) | 实测距离 | 388 | 261 |
地铁站(Subway) | 地块到出让年份开通运营的最近地铁站距离(m) | 实测距离 | 5112 | 5450 |
公园(Park) | 地块到最近公园的距离(m) | 实测距离 | 1860 | 1380 |
三甲医院(Hospital) | 地块到最近三甲医院的距离(m) | 实测距离 | 6573 | 4732 |
重点小学(Pschool) | 地块到最近重点小学的距离(m) | 实测距离 | 10103 | 6284 |
地块面积(Area) | 居住地块面积(万m2) | 样本交易数据 | 8.47 | 6.7 |
地块面积的平方(Area2) | 居住地块面积的平方(万m2×万m2) | 样本交易数据 | 116.42 | 204.76 |
容积率(FAR) | 地块出让的容积率(%) | 样本交易数据 | 2.27 | 0.75 |
出让方式(Leasing) | 挂牌=1,招标=0 | 样本交易数据 | 0.68 | 0.47 |
表3
OLS估计结果"
变量 | 系数 | 标准差 | t统计量 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | 12.99 | 0.887 | 14.637 | 0.000 |
Ln Tiananmen | -0.28*** | 0.119 | -2.302 | 0.022 |
Ln Bus | 0.10** | 0.042 | 2.329 | 0.020 |
Ln Subway | -0.12*** | 0.027 | -4.389 | 0.000 |
Ln Park | 0.05 | 0.044 | 1.138 | 0.256 |
Ln Hospital | 0.04 | 0.045 | 0.880 | 0.379 |
Ln Pschool | -0.20*** | 0.058 | -3.449 | 0.001 |
Area | 0.03** | 0.012 | 2.231 | 0.026 |
Area2 | -0.001** | 0.000 | -2.602 | 0.010 |
FAR | 0.32*** | 0.042 | 7.569 | 0.000 |
Leasing | 0.32*** | 0.064 | 5.064 | 0.000 |
R2 | 0.432 | |||
调整R2 | 0.418 | |||
LogL | -360.4 | |||
AIC | 742.8 | |||
SC | 787.3 |
表5
空间滞后模型和空间误差模型的估计结果"
变量 | 空间滞后模型(SLM) | 空间误差模型(SEM) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | 标准差 | P值 | 系数 | 标准差 | P值 | ||
ρ/λ | 0.441*** | 0.1 | 0.000 | 0.511*** | 0.107 | 0.000 | |
Intercept | 6.382 | 1.687 | 0.000 | 12.712 | 1.248 | 0.000 | |
Ln Tiananmen | -0.097 | 0.12 | 0.420 | -0.243 | 0.169 | 0.420 | |
Ln Bus | 0.087** | 0.04 | 0.031 | 0.085** | 0.04 | 0.031 | |
Ln Subway | -0.121*** | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.144*** | 0.028 | 0.000 | |
Ln Park | 0.046 | 0.043 | 0.282 | 0.039 | 0.046 | 0.282 | |
Ln Hospital | 0.024 | 0.043 | 0.575 | 0.018 | 0.057 | 0.575 | |
Ln Pschool | -0.121** | 0.059 | 0.040 | -0.146** | 0.074 | 0.040 | |
Area | 0.025** | 0.012 | 0.035 | 0.021* | 0.011 | 0.035 | |
Area2 | -0.001** | 0.000 | 0.013 | -0.001** | 0.000 | 0.013 | |
FAR | 0.328*** | 0.041 | 0.000 | 0.334*** | 0.041 | 0.000 | |
Leasing | 0.336*** | 0.062 | 0.000 | 0.307*** | 0.061 | 0.000 | |
R2 | 0.458 | 0.461 | |||||
LogL | -352.48 | -352.09 | |||||
AIC | 728.96 | 726.19 | |||||
SC | 777.5 | 770.68 |
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