地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (5): 804-816.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201705004
收稿日期:
2016-03-29
修回日期:
2016-12-10
出版日期:
2017-05-20
发布日期:
2017-05-20
作者简介:
作者简介:孙超(1986-), 男, 内蒙古呼和浩特人, 博士, 研究方向为城市灾害情景推演、应急演练方案评估、应急决策优化。E-mail:
基金资助:
Chao SUN1(), Shaobo ZHONG1, Yu DENG2(
)
Received:
2016-03-29
Revised:
2016-12-10
Published:
2017-05-20
Online:
2017-05-20
Supported by:
摘要:
城市自然灾害的情景推演与应急方案的动态预评估是优化应急决策的重要支撑。然而,传统的应急救援方案评估往往基于有限信息进行时间片段式的情景推演并采用应急方案的灾后评估。本文在构建基于内涝水淹模型和多智能体城市路况模型的全链条、多维度灾害情景推演方案的基础上,实施不同应急救援目标导向下多时间刻度的应急救援方案预评估,重点从受损车辆规模和遭受安全威胁人数定量评估基于救援人数、救援时间和救援空间布局原则的应急方案优劣,为灾害情景推演方案和应急决策优化提供了一种新的思路与解决方案。基于救援人数规模的应急方案表明,救援力量将优先布局在风险指数高企的区域,包括北蜂窝路、南蜂窝路、广莲路以及莲花桥等路段。在现实情况中及时参加的救援力量往往有限,此类根据不同救援力量数量的空间指向将对最优的救援决策起到关键作用。同时,研究也应证了救援力量多寡在应急事件处置中的基础性地位。基于救援启动时间的应急方案中得出,最优的救援启动时间在45 min到75 min之间,适时的救援启动可以有效规避过早启动导致的救援空间配置不当和过晚启动导致的救援失效两类问题。不同救援空间布局原则有着迥异的救援力量空间配置特点和最优运用条件。
孙超, 钟少波, 邓羽. 基于暴雨内涝灾害情景推演的北京市应急救援方案评估与决策优化[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(5): 804-816.
Chao SUN, Shaobo ZHONG, Yu DENG. Scenario deduction based emergency rescue plan assessment and decision optimization of urban rainstorm water-logging:A case study of Beijing[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(5): 804-816.
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