SWIM模型在东北黑土区流域的适用性评价——以乌裕尔河中上游流域为例

doi:10.11821/dlxb201703008

地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (3): 457-470.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201703008

所属专题：黑土侵蚀格局及机理

SWIM模型在东北黑土区流域的适用性评价——以乌裕尔河中上游流域为例

杨志远¹(), 高超², 臧淑英¹(), 杨秀春³

1. 哈尔滨师范大学黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室,哈尔滨 150025
2. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,芜湖 241000
3. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京 100081

收稿日期:2016-11-13 修回日期:2017-02-13 出版日期:2017-03-15 发布日期:2017-03-15
作者简介:
作者简介：杨志远(1972-), 男, 河北迁安人, 博士, 主要从事土地利用、区域环境模拟与评价研究。E-mail: yzybsz@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41571199, 41571105);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(ZD201308)

Assessing SWIM model applicability in the black soil region of Northeast China: A case study in the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River Basin

Zhiyuan YANG¹(), Chao GAO², Shuying ZANG¹(), Xiuchun YANG³

1. Harbin Normal University, Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Monitoring of Geographic Environment, Harbin 150025, China
2. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China
3. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2016-11-13 Revised:2017-02-13 Published:2017-03-15 Online:2017-03-15
Supported by:
National Natrual Science Foundation of China, No.41571199, No.41571105;Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province, No.ZD201308

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以典型东北黑土区乌裕尔河中上游流域为研究区,引入SWIM水文模型,利用偏相关系数评价模型参数的敏感性,基于流域出水口依安水文站1961-1997年实测日径流数据和部分气象站小型蒸发皿数据,进行了多站点、多变量的模型率定和验证,并通过模拟结果与实测资料对比,探讨了SWIM模型在东北黑土区流域的适用性、存在的误差及其原因。结果表明：① 在率定期和验证期,月径流和日径流的纳希效率系数分别大于0.71和0.55,径流相对误差在6.0%以内,月径流的模拟效果好于对日径流的模拟效果;月潜在蒸散发的纳希效率系数达0.81以上;② 在月尺度上经过校准的SWIM模型可以应用于东北黑土区与径流相关的各种模拟分析;③ 但模型在模拟融雪和冻土产流方面存在一定的限制;对同时具有春汛和夏汛的年份模拟效果也较差;对年降水量出现骤增的年份年径流量的模拟结果会几倍于实测值,但基本能够重现汛期的流量变化过程。模型不仅可以为管理者对该流域水环境综合管理提供水文基础支持,对黑土区其他流域也具有一定的推广和应用价值。

关键词: SWIM模型, 乌裕尔河流域, 敏感性分析, 径流, 潜在蒸散发, 适用性评价

Abstract:

The black soil region of Northeast China is an important national commodity grain base. The Wuyuer River Basin is a typical black soil region and agricultural area in Northeast China. In this paper, a SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was constructed to study the applicability in the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River Basin. Based on observed daily runoff data from a local hydrologic station and evaporating dish weather data from 1961-1997, the model was validated using multiple criteria and sites. Special attention was paid to the use of both spatial information (potential evapotranspiration) and more commonly used observations of water discharge at the basin outlet to validate the model. The applicability of the SWIM is evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and the relative error of runoff. Based on this analysis, the study discusses the applicability of the SWIM model in the black soil region of Northeast China, and the associated errors and causes. The study reached three key conclusions. First, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of monthly runoff and daily runoff are greater than 0.71 and 0.55, respectively; the relative error of runoff is less than 6.0%. The simulation efficiency of the SWIM for both monthly runoff and daily runoff satisfies the assessment requirements, but the simulation efficiency of daily runoff is not ideal, and the simulation is more accurate for monthly runoff than daily runoff. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of monthly evapotranspiration is more than 0.81. Second, the calibrated monthly SWIM model can be used to conduct different runoff simulations and analyses in the black soil region of Northeast China. Third, the study identified structural elements of the model that may limit some uses in the black soil region of Northeast China. The simulated values of spring flood runoff were less than the observed values; and the yearlong simulated results with spring and summer floods were poor. In years with a sudden increase in annual precipitation, the simulated results of the annual runoff were several times of the measured value. However, the model can fundamentally reproduce the flow change process during the flood season. The simulation results have an important reference value to study the impact of land-use change and climate change on hydrological processes at the regional scale. It can provide hydrological information to support the integrated management of the basin water environment, as well as other watersheds in the black soil region.

Key words: SWIM model, sensitivity analysis, runoff, evapotranspiration, applicability assessment, Wuyuer River Basin

杨志远, 高超, 臧淑英, 杨秀春. SWIM模型在东北黑土区流域的适用性评价——以乌裕尔河中上游流域为例[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(3): 457-470.

Zhiyuan YANG, Chao GAO, Shuying ZANG, Xiuchun YANG. Assessing SWIM model applicability in the black soil region of Northeast China: A case study in the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(3): 457-470.

图/表 9

图1

表1

图2

表2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

参考文献 42

[1]	Gao Chao, Zhai Jianqing, Tao Hui, et al.Hydrological response to land use/land cover change in Chaohu Basin. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(10): 1794-1803. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2009.10.013
	[高超, 翟建青, 陶辉, 等. 巢湖流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(10): 1794-1803.] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2009.10.013
[2]	Faramarzi M, Abbaspour K C, Schulin R, et al.Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran. Hydrological Processes, 2009, 23(3): 486-501. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7160
[3]	Krysanova V, Wechsung F, Arnold J, et al.Soil and Water Integrated Model User Manual. BeiJing: China Meteorological Press, 2011.
	[Krysannona V, Wechsung F, Arnold J, 等. SWIM模型使用指南. 北京: 气象出版社, 2011.]
[4]	Stefanova A, Krysanova V, Hesse C, et al.Climate change impact assessment on water inflow to a coastal lagoon: The Ria de Aveiro watershed, Portugal. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2015, 60(5): 1-20. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.983518
[5]	Conradt T, Wechsung F, Bronstert A.Three perceptions of the evapotranspiration landscape: comparing spatial patterns from a distributed hydrological model, remotely sensed surface temperatures, and sub-basin water balances. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences, 2013, 17(7): 2947-2966. doi: 10.5194/hess-17-2947-2013
[6]	Hesse C, Krysanova V, Stefanova A, et al.Assessment of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality of the multi-river Vistula Lagoon catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2015, 60(5): 1-22 doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.983518
[7]	Hattermann F F, Wattenbach M, Krysanova V, et al.Runoff simulations on the macroscale with the ecohydrological model SWIM in the Elbe catchment-validation and uncertainty analysis. Hydrological Processes, 2005, 19(3): 693-714. doi: 10.1002/hyp.5625
[8]	Krysanova V, Hattermann F, Huang S, et al.Modelling climate and land use change impacts with SWIM: Lessons learnt from multiple applications. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2015, 60(4): 606-635. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.925560
[9]	Krysanova V, Hattermann F, Wechsung F.Development of the ecohydrological model SWIM for regional impact studies and vulnerability assessment. Hydrological Processes, 2005, 19(3): 763-783. doi: 10.1002/hyp.5619
[10]	Ge G, Xu C Y, Chen D, et al.Spatial and temporal characteristics of actual evapotranspiration over Haihe River basin in China. Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 2012, 26(26): 1-15. doi: 10.1007/s00477-011-0525-1
[11]	Wortmann M, Krysanova V, Kundzewicz Z W, et al.Assessing the influence of the Merzbacher Lake outburst floods on discharge using the hydrological model SWIM in the Aksu headwaters, Kyrgyzstan/NW China. Hydrological Processes, 2014, 28(26): 6337-6350. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10118
[12]	Tao Y, Wang X, Yu Z, et al.Climate change and probabilistic scenario of streamflow extremes in an alpine region. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2014, 119(14): 8535-8551. doi: 10.1002/2014JD021824
[13]	Huang S, Hesse C, Krysanova V, et al.From meso- to macro-scale dynamic water quality modelling for the assessment of land use change scenarios. Ecological Modelling, 2009, 220(19): 2543-2558. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.06.043
[14]	Gao Chao, Jin Gaojie.Effects of DEM resolution on results of the SWIM hydrological model in the Changtaiguan basin. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(3): 399-408.
	[高超, 金高洁. SWIM水文模型的DEM尺度效应. 地理研究, 2012, 31(3): 399-408.]
[15]	Gao Chao, Liu Qing, Su Buda, et al.The applicability assessment of hydrological models with different resolution and database in the Huaihe River Basin, China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(10): 1765-1777. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.10.011
	[高超, 刘青, 苏布达, 等. 不同尺度和数据基础的水文模型适用性评估研究: 淮河流域为例. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(10): 1765-1777.] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.10.011
[16]	Zhang Zhengtao.The influence of different spatial resolution and algorithm selection on the SWIM Hydrological Model[D]. Wuhu: Anhui Normal University, 2015.
	[张正涛. 不同空间分辨率及算法选择对SWIM水文模型模拟的影响[D]. 芜湖: 安徽师范大学, 2015.]
[17]	Zhang Shulan, Yu Pengtao, Wang Yanhui, et al.Estimation of actual evapotranspiration and its component in the upstream of Jinghe basin. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(3): 385-395.
	[张淑兰, 于澎涛, 王彦辉, 等. 泾河上游流域实际蒸散量及其各组分的估算. 地理学报, 2011, 66(3): 385-395.]
[18]	Zhang Shulan, Yu Pengtao, Zhang Haijun, et al.A simulation study on the hydrological impacts of varying forest cover in the stony mountain area and loess area of the upper reaches of Jinghe basin. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2015, 35(4): 1068-1078. doi: 10.5846/stxb201304240792
	[张淑兰, 于澎涛, 张海军, 等. 泾河流域上游土石山区和黄土区森林覆盖率变化的水文影响模拟. 生态学报, 2015, 35(4): 1068-1078.] doi: 10.5846/stxb201304240792
[19]	Mo Fei.The hydrological effects of forest/vegetation and simulation in the small watershed of Honggou, Liupan mountains [D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Forestry, 2008.
	[莫菲. 六盘山洪沟小流域森林植被的水文影响与模拟[D]. 北京: 中国林业科学研究院, 2008.]
[20]	Xu Yanhui.A study on influences of land use change to Huangqian Watershed based on SWIM model [D]. Tai'an: Shandong Agricultural University, 2011.
	[徐艳会. 基于SWIM模型分析土地利用变化对黄前流域产流的影响[D]. 泰安: 山东农业大学, 2011.]
[21]	Zhang Shulan.The assessment of impact of land use change and climate variability on hydrologtic process in basin [D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Forestry, 2011.
	[张淑兰. 土地利用和气候变化对流域水文过程影响的定量评价[D]. 北京: 中国林业科学研究院, 2011.]
[22]	Zhang Shulan, Zhang Haijun, Wang Yanhui, et al.Influence of vegetation type on hydrological process at landscape scale in the upper reaches of Jinghe basin. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(2): 231-237.
	[张淑兰, 张海军, 王彦辉, 等. 泾河流域上游景观尺度植被类型对水文过程的影响. 地理科学, 2015, 35(2): 231-237.]
[23]	Cui Ming, Zhang Xudong, Cai Qiangguo, et al.Relationship between black soil development and climate change and geomorphological evolution in Northeast China. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(3): 527-535.
	[崔明, 张旭东, 蔡强国, 等. 东北典型黑土区气候、地貌演化与黑土发育关系. 地理研究, 2008, 27(3): 527-535.]
[24]	Liu Zhuo, Liu Changming.The analysis about water resource utilization, ecological and environmental problems in Northeast China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006, 21(5): 700-708. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.05.003
	[刘卓, 刘昌明. 东北地区水资源利用与生态和环境问题分析. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(5): 700-708.] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.05.003
[25]	Maidment D R.GIS and hydrologic modelling: An assessment of progress//Proceedings of the Third International Conference on GIS and Environmental Modeling, Santa Fe, New Mexico, 22-26 January, 1996.
[26]	Song Xiaomeng, Zhang Jianyun, Zhan Chesheng, et al.Review parameter sensitivity analysis hydrologic modeling. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources, 2015, 23(6): 105-112.
	[宋晓猛, 张建云, 占车生, 等. 水文模型参数敏感性分析方法评述. 水利水电科技进展, 2015, 23(6): 105-112.]
[27]	Kong Fanzhe, Song Xiaomeng, Zhan Chesheng, et al.An efficient quantitative sensitivity analysis approach for hydrological model parameters using RSMSobol method. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(9): 1270-1280.
	[孔凡哲, 宋晓猛, 占车生, 等. 水文模型参数敏感性快速定量评估的RSMSobol方法. 地理学报, 2011, 66(9): 1270-1280.]
[28]	Shu Chang, Liu Suxia, Mo Xingguo, et al.Uncertainty analysis of Xinanjiang model parameter. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(2): 343-352.
	[舒畅, 刘苏峡, 莫兴国, 等. 新安江模型参数的不确定性分析. 地理研究, 2008, 27(2): 343-352.]
[29]	Rougier J, Richmond A D.Sensitivity of the SWAT model to the soil and land use data parametrisation: A case study in the Thyle catchment, Belgium. Ecological Modelling, 2005, 187(1): 27-39. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.025
[30]	Yang Dawen, Li Chong, Ni Guangheng, et al.Application of a distributed hydrological model to the Yellow River Basin. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(1): 143-154. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2004.01.018
	[杨大文, 李翀, 倪广恒, 等. 分布式水文模型在黄河流域的应用. 地理学报, 2004, 59(1): 143-154.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2004.01.018
[31]	Cheng Lei, Xu Zongxue, Luo Rui, et al.SWAT application in arid and semi-arid region: A case study in the Kuye river basin. Geographical Research, 2009, 28(1): 65-73. doi: 10.11821/yj2009010009
	[程磊, 徐宗学, 罗睿, 等. SWAT在干旱半干旱地区的应用: 以窟野河流域为例. 地理研究, 2009, 28(1): 65-73.] doi: 10.11821/yj2009010009
[32]	Bai Shuying, Zhang Shuwen, Zhang Yangzhen.Analyzing dynamic process of land use change in Songnen Plain of China: A case study in Duerbote Mongolian autonomous county of Daqing city. Resources Science, 2007, 29(4): 164-169.
	[白淑英, 张树文, 张养贞. 松嫩平原土地利用/覆被变化的动态过程分析: 以大庆市杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县为例. 资源科学, 2007, 29(4): 164-169.]
[33]	Abbaspour K, Vejdani M, Haghighat S.SWAT-CUP Calibration and Uncertainty Programs for SWAT. In: Modsim 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2007: 1596-1602. doi: 10.1109/MICRO.2007.30
[34]	Guo Min, Fang Haiyan, Li Zhiying.SWAT model-based runoff simulation of Wuyuer river basin in the black soil region of Northeast China. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2016, 23(4): 43-47.
	[郭敏, 方海燕, 李致颖. 基于SWAT东北黑土区乌裕尔河流域径流模型模拟. 水土保持研究, 2016, 23(4): 43-47.]
[35]	Feng Xiaqing, Zhang Guangxin, Yin Xiongrui.Study on the hydrological response to climate change in Wuyur river basin based on the SWAT model. Progress in Geography, 2010, 29(7): 827-832. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.07.008
	[冯夏清, 章光新, 尹雄锐. 基于SWAT模型的乌裕尔河流域气候变化的水文响应. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(7): 827-832.] doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.07.008
[36]	Tzyy-Woei Chu.Modeling Hydrologic and water quality response of a mixed land use watershed in piedmont physiographic region [D]. Graduatie School of the University of Maryland, 2003.
[37]	Song Yanhua, Ma Jinhui.Applicability of SWAT model in Longxi of the Loess Plateau. Arid Land Geography, 2007, 30(6): 933-938.
	[宋艳华, 马金辉. SWAT模型在陇西黄土高原地区的适用性研究. 干旱区地理, 2007, 30(6): 933-938.]
[38]	Zhang Yongfang, Deng Junli, Guan Dexin, et al.Spatiotemporal changes of potential evapotranspiration in Songnen Plain of Northeast China. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2011, 22(7): 1702-1710.
	[张永芳, 邓珺丽, 关德新, 等. 松嫩平原潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征. 应用生态学报, 2011, 22(7): 1702-1710.]
[39]	Fitzhugh T W, Mackay D S.Impacts of input parameter spatial aggregation on an agricultural nonpoint source pollution model. Journal of Hydrology, 2001, 236(1/2): 35-53. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00276-6
[40]	Romanowicz A A, Vanclooster M, Rounsevell M, et al.Sensitivity of the SWAT model to the soil and land use data parametrisation: A case study in the Thyle catchment in Belgium. Ecological Modelling, 2005, 187(1): 27-39. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.025
[41]	Li Jinfeng, Huang Chongfu, Zong Tian.Anti-accuracy phenomenon and formalization. Systems Engineering: Theory & Practice, 2005, 25(4): 128-132.
	[李金锋, 黄崇福, 宗恬. 反精确现象与形式化研究. 系统工程理论与实践, 2005, 25(4): 128-132.]
[42]	Wang Genxu, Li Yuanshou, Wu Qingbai, et al.The relationship between frozen soil and vegetation in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its impact on the alpine ecosystem. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 2006, 36(8): 743-754. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1006-9267.2006.08.007
	[王根绪, 李元寿, 吴青柏, 等.青藏高原冻土区冻土与植被的关系及其对高寒生态系统的影响.中国科学(D)辑: 地球科学, 2006, 36(8): 743-754.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1006-9267.2006.08.007

集水区面积(km²)	子流域个数(个)	水文单元数量(个)	年均径流量(m³/s)	R值	效率系数E
90	93	1206	29.88	0.834	0.39
100	37	653	29.27	0.896	0.43
140	29	577	27.69	0.898	0.47
150	27	556	27.73	0.899	0.48
160	27	556	27.67	0.898	0.48
170	25	525	29.30	0.898	0.46

参数代码	参数含义	取值范围	参数值	泾河上游流域参数取值
thc	土壤蒸发修正系数	0.5~1.5	0.7	1.6
CN	SCS曲线形参数	10~100	70	-
bff	流域基流修正系数	0.2~1.0	0.7	0.01
gwq0	土壤初始含水量贡献率	0.01~1.0	0.03	0.5
abf0	地下水回流速率	0.001~1.0	0.001	0.001
roc2	汇流系数	1~100	1.5	0.5
roc4	汇流系数	1~100	3	2
sccor	土壤饱和传导率校正因子	0.01~10	1.8	5

SWIM模型在东北黑土区流域的适用性评价——以乌裕尔河中上游流域为例

Assessing SWIM model applicability in the black soil region of Northeast China: A case study in the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River Basin

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 9

参考文献 42

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	刘诗奇, 王平, 王田野, 黄其威, 于静洁. 西伯利亚北极河流有机碳输出特征及影响要素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1065-1077.
[2]	田晶, 郭生练, 刘德地, 陈启会, 王强, 尹家波, 吴旭树, 何绍坤. 气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(11): 2307-2318.
[3]	谢林环, 江涛, 曹英杰, 张得胜, 黎坤, 唐常源. 城镇化流域降水径流氢氧同位素特征及洪水径流分割[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1733-1744.
[4]	李朝君,王世杰,白晓永,谭秋,李汇文,李琴,邓元红,杨钰杰,田诗琪,胡泽银. 全球主要河流流域碳酸盐岩风化碳汇评估[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(7): 1319-1332.
[5]	严鑫,孙昭华,谢翠松,夏军强. 基于经验模型的长江口南支上段压咸临界流量[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 935-947.
[6]	曹晓娟, 谢林妤, 张风宝, 杨明义, 李占斌. 沙层特性对沙盖黄土坡面产流产沙变化贡献的定量分析[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 962-974.
[7]	潘威, 郑景云, 满志敏. 1766-2000年黄河上中游汛期径流量波动特征及其与PDO关系[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(11): 2053-2063.
[8]	胡胜, 曹明明, 邱海军, 宋进喜, 吴江, 高宇, 李京忠, 孙克红. CFSR气象数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性评价——以灞河流域为例[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(9): 1571-1587.
[9]	马延东, 赵景波, 罗小庆, 邵天杰, 岳大鹏, 周旗. 巴丹吉林沙漠沙山区径流与地下水补给条件[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(3): 433-448.
[10]	刘剑宇, 张强, 陈喜, 顾西辉. 气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(11): 1875-1885.
[11]	刘晓燕, 党素珍, 刘昌明. 天桥泉域与黄河河段的补径排关系变化及其对河川径流的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(1): 66-74.
[12]	张健, 满志敏, 宋进喜, 李同昇. 1765-2010年黄河中游5-10月面降雨序列重建与特征分析[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(7): 1101-1113.
[13]	周永强, 李景保, 张运林, 章新平, 黎昔春. 三峡水库运行下洞庭湖盆冲淤过程响应与水沙调控阈值[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(3): 409-421.
[14]	刘晓燕, 刘昌明, 杨胜天, 金双彦, 高亚军, 高云飞. 基于遥感的黄土高原林草植被变化对河川径流的影响分析[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(11): 1595-1603.
[15]	潘威, 郑景云, 萧凌波, 闫芳芳. 1766 年以来黄河中游与永定河汛期径流量的变化[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(7): 975-982.