地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (3): 407-419.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201703004

• 气候变化与地表过程 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对北方农牧交错带界线变迁影响的定量探测方法研究

史文娇1,2,3,4(), 刘奕婷2,3, 石晓丽5   

  1. 1. 中国土地勘测规划院 国土资源部土地利用重点实验室,北京 100035
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京 100101
    3. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
    4. 北京师范大学遥感科学国家重点实验室,北京 100875
    5. 河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院 河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,石家庄 050024
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-26 修回日期:2016-11-20 出版日期:2017-03-15 发布日期:2017-03-15
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：史文娇(1982-), 女, 辽宁葫芦岛人, 博士, 副研究员, 硕士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110008514M), 研究方向为全球变化与区域农业。E-mail: shiwj@lreis.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41371002, 41401113);国土资源部土地利用重点实验室开放基金(KLLU201603);遥感科学国家重点实验室开放基金(OFSLRSS201622);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所优秀青年人才基金项目(2016RC201)

Quantitative methods for detecting the impacts of climate change on the fluctuation of farming-pastoral ecotone boundaries in northern China

Wenjiao SHI1,2,3,4(), Yiting LIU2,3, Xiaoli SHI5   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Use, Ministry of Land and Resources, China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
    4. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    5. Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province, College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China
  • Received:2016-09-26 Revised:2016-11-20 Published:2017-03-15 Online:2017-03-15
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41371002, No.41401113;Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Land Use, Ministry of Land and Resources, No.KLLU201603;Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, No.OFSLRSS201622;Fund for Excellent Young Talents in Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, No.2106RC201

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摘要：

气候对北方农牧交错带界线变迁的定量影响是目前生态脆弱敏感区对气候变化响应领域的研究热点问题。前人已在气候变化对农牧交错带界线的定性影响方面有较为深刻的认识,但仍缺乏在时间和空间上对气候贡献率进行有针对性的定量辨识。本文利用1970年以来长时间序列的国家气象站点数据和土地利用遥感解译数据,分别提取了基于气候要素和土地利用的20世纪70年代、80年代、90年代和21世纪前10年4个时期的北方农牧交错带界线,通过垂直和水平方向变动探测方法（FishNet）和界线变迁方向变动探测方法（DSAS）对气候界线与土地利用界线的时空变化进行探测,定量分析了不同时期气候对农牧交错带界线变迁影响的贡献率。结果表明,气候与土地利用界线空间分布格局及气候贡献率在不同时期、不同区域差异较大,在西北地区变幅最小,东北地区变幅最大。在大兴安岭东南缘农田控制水源涵养生态功能区西北段以及内蒙古高原东南缘农、林、牧业生态—生产功能区西北段,气候与土地利用界线空间耦合关系最为密切,在该地区基于FishNet方法下水平方向上气候贡献率达10.7%~44.4%,垂直方向上达4.7%~55.9%;基于DSAS方法下气候贡献率为1.1%~16.8%。两种方法探测结果大部分趋于一致,但DSAS方法精度高,适用于小范围精确探测;FishNet方法更简单,适用于精度要求不高、快速直观的统计分析。本研究可为北方农牧交错带内农牧业生产适应气候变化、合理开发土地生产潜力、保护农牧交错带区内生态环境提供科学依据和指导。

关键词: 北方农牧交错带, 气候变化, 土地利用, 垂直和水平方向变动探测方法（FishNet方法）, 界线变迁方向变动探测方法（DSAS方法）, 定量探测

Abstract:

The quantitative analysis of the effect of climate change on the fluctuation of farming-pastoral ecotone (FPE) boundary in northern China is a current focus in the field of response to climate change in ecological vulnerable regions. Previous studies have given profound descriptions about the effects of climate change on the boundary shifts of the ecotones qualitatively, but lacked quantitative analysis of the contribution of climate change on both spatial and temporal scales. Here, climate data from national meteorological stations and land use data interpreted from remote sensing images of the farming-pastoral ecotone (FPE) in northern China since 1970 were used to describe boundaries of the FPE based on both climate and land use in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Detection in horizontal and vertical directions method (FishNet) and Digital Shoreline Analysis System method (DSAS) were applied to detect the spatial pattern of the FPE boundaries and to examine how much of the boundaries shifts can be explained by climate change in different periods. The results showed that the spatial pattern of the FPE boundaries and contributions of climate varied in different regions and periods. The FPE boundaries moved slightly in the northwest part of the FPE and violently in the northeast part. The shift of climate and land use boundaries in northwest segment of the Greater Hinggan Mountains showed the most highly coupling relationship and the contribution rate of climate change reached 10.7%-44.4% in east-west direction and 4.7%-55.9% in north-south direction based on FishNet method and 1.1%-16.8% based on DSAS method from the 1970s to the 2000s. Most of the detections based on the two methods had consistent results. Moreover, DSAS method was better than FishNet method in overall accuracy and suitable for the precise detection in small range, while FishNet method was more appropriate for intuitive, rapid and low-precision analysis. Our findings highlight the importance of different adaption measures to climate change in the FPE of northern China in different regions and periods.

Key words: farming-pastoral ecotone (FPE) in northern China, climate change, land use, detection in horizontal and vertical directions method (FishNet), digital shoreline analysis system method (DSAS), quantitative detection