地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (2): 329-340.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201702012

• GIS在犯罪地理学的应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

入室盗窃多尺度地理因子分析

王增利1,2,3(), 刘学军2,3,4, 陆娟5   

  1. 1. 南京林业大学土木工程学院,南京 210037
    2. 南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,南京 210046
    3. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210046
    4. 警用地理信息技术公安部重点实验室,南京 210046
    5.南京市公安局科技信息化处,南京 210005
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-05 修回日期:2016-12-29 出版日期:2017-02-15 发布日期:2017-02-15
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：王增利(1984-), 男, 山东济南人, 博士, 主要从事犯罪空间模拟和GIS应用研究。E-mail: wangzl@njfu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41501488);江苏省测绘地理信息科研项目(JSCHKY201602);国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(012BAH35B02);南京林业大学青年科技创新基金(CX2015007);警用地理信息技术公安部重点实验室开放课题(2016LPGIT06)

Multiscale geographic analysis of burglary

Zengli WANG1,2,3(), Xuejun LIU2,3,4, Juan LU5   

  1. 1. College of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
    3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210046, China
    4. Key Laboratory of Police Geographic Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, Nanjing 210046, China
    5. Nanjing Public Security Bureau, Nanjing 210005, China
  • Received:2016-12-05 Revised:2016-12-29 Published:2017-02-15 Online:2017-02-15
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41501488;Surveying and Mapping Geographic Information Scientific Research Project in Jiangsu Province, No.JSCHKY201602;The National Science ＆ Technology Pillar Program, No.2012BAH35B02;Youth Science ＆ Technology Innovation Fund of Nanjing Forestry University, No.CX2015007;Open Research Fund Program of Key Laboratory of Police Geographic Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, No.2016LPGIT06

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摘要：

选取N市作为研究区域,以该市2013年全年的入室盗窃案件作为研究对象。将研究区域内入室盗窃与地理因子在不同空间尺度上进行关联性对比分析。首先,从环境犯罪学理论和现有犯罪地理特征研究两方面出发,分析现有研究中的尺度依赖性。每一套环境犯罪学理论均有其适用的空间尺度,在犯罪地理特征研究中会有相应的地理因子与之关联;其次,引入似不相关回归模型获取入室盗窃与地理因子在小区、街区、社区、街道以及区等多个空间尺度上的关联性。并用瓦尔德检验来测试各个关联系数之间差异的显著性。实验结果表明,随着尺度的变化,有些地理因子与入室盗窃的关联性并未变化,有些则发生了显著变化。这些变化可用不同尺度的犯罪地理学理论进行解释;最后,将多个尺度地理因子反演入室盗窃空间分布的结果进行综合,并将之与单一尺度的反演结果进行比较。结果证明,与单一尺度的地理因子反演犯罪空间分布的精度相比,利用多个尺度地理因子解释犯罪空间分布的精度更高。研究表明：在犯罪地理学研究中,环境犯罪学理论、地理因子分析以及犯罪空间分布反演均存在尺度依赖性。综合多个尺度的结果进行分析,不仅有利于准确认识犯罪的地理因子及其对应理论,对于犯罪反演精度也有所提高。

关键词: 环境犯罪学, 多尺度, 入室盗窃, 地理因子, 反演精度

Abstract:

Current theoretical and empirical literature provides abundant knowledge about why and where crime takes place. However, few empirical studies analyze the scale applicability of the existing research. In order to get a better understanding of the relationship between burglary and sociodemographic and economic characteristics, this paper applies multiscale analysis to assess the stability of model parameters on different spatial scales. First, this paper summarizes the existing theories of environmental criminology, and concludes that each kind of theory can only be employed in a certain spatial scale. Thus, a more comprehensive explanation of crime needs more than one crime theory. Geographical factors associated with burglary also distinct between the results from different spatial scales. Therefore, multiscale analysis method may offer a more comprehensive and accurate analysis than single scale analysis in crime modelling. Second, using a recent burglary dataset from N city in southeast China, the current research applies a seemingly unrelated regression model to assess the stability of correlation coefficients between burglary and geographical factors among five spatial scales (residential area, neighborhood, community, street and district). After Wald's test for a significant test of correlation coefficients, the experimental result shows that, some correlation coefficients do not vary, while others vary significantly. Environmental criminology theories at different spatial scales explain the changes of these correlation coefficients. Finally, compared with the inversion results from single spatial scales, those integrating five spatial scales show a higher accuracy. The result demonstrates that, in the research of environmental criminology, the theories, geographical factors and spatial distribution inversion all depend on scale change. Multiscale analysis method performs better in geographical analysis, theory research and crime inversion than single scale analysis.

Key words: environmental criminology, multiscale, burglary, geographical factors, inversion accuracy