气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb201701002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文结合资料分析和文献阅读,对全球气候变化背景下的中亚天山山区水文、水资源变化进行了讨论分析。在全球升温滞缓背景下,中亚天山山区在过去的10余年,气温却一直处于高位态波动状态;气候变暖及持续高位态波动加剧了山区冰川和积雪等固态水体的消融,导致山区降雪率降低,天山山区降雪率从1960-1998年的11%~24%降低到2000年以来的9%~21%,有97.52%的冰川表现为退缩状态,水储量呈明显减少趋势,减小幅度约为-3.72 mm/a;气候变暖直接影响区域水循环和水系统的稳定性,引起径流补给方式和水资源数量的改变,加大了水资源时空分布的不确定性。天山山区在短时期内因冰雪融水增多,会出现径流量增加现象。但在未来气候持续变暖、降水条件维持不变的条件下,河川径流量将会出现减少趋势。

关键词: 气候变化, 冰川积雪, 降雪率, 水文水资源, 中亚天山

Abstract:

Changes in hydrological processes and water resources under climate change in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia have been investigated based on data analysis and paper review. Under the context of global warming hiatus, temperature of the Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia has been in a state of high variability, which has accelerated the melting of glacier and snow. Warming has resulted in a series of changes in water resources. Snowfall fraction decreased from 11%-24% in 1960-1998 to 9%-21% in 2000-2014, 97.25% of the glaciers retreated in the last 50 years; and water storage decreased at a rate of -3.72 mm/a during 2003-2014. Warming has led to changes in mountainous hydrological processes and water resources. The runoff in the Tianshan Mountains has increased due to the accelerated glacier/snow melt, however, the runoff will decrease in the long term under continuous warming and current precipitation conditions.

Key words: climate change, glacier and snow, snowfall fraction, water resources, Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

陈亚宁, 李稚, 方功焕, 邓海军. 气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1): 18-26.

Yaning CHEN, Zhi LI, Gonghuan FANG, Haijun DENG. Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountians, Central Asia[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 18-26.

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分区	冰川面积(km²)/数目(条)				面积变化(%)/年平均变化率(%)
分区	1956年	1989年	2001年	2012年	1956-1989年	1989-2012年	1956-2012年
Terisakkan	14.1/36	8.4/21	6.5/21	5.1/17	-40/-1.22	-39/-1.68	-63/-1.13
Koksu	108.6/167	75.3/149	64.1/140	56.1/135	-31/-0.93	-26/-1.11	-48/-0.86
Shyzhyn	8.7/19	4.9/11	4.2/10	3.8/10	-44/-1.32	-22/-1.32	-56/-1.0
Kora	49.3/66	50.8/62	45.6/55	42.7/52	-22/-0.68	-21/-0.91	-39/-0.69
Total	198.9/285	142.8/243	122.2/226	109.3/214	-28/-0.86	-23/-1.02	-45/-0.81
Glaciers <0.1 in 1956	3.6/73	2.36/77	0.76/39	0.59/34	-34/-1.0	-75/-3.2	-83/-1.5

	最大积雪^②				最小积雪^③
	覆盖率(%)		面积变化(km²/a)	变化率(%/a)	覆盖率(%)	面积变化(km²/a)	变化率(%/a)
西天山	87	2.3	0.001		1.4	16	0.085
中天山	79	-672	-0.32		4.7	-60	-0.029
北天山	90	-78	-0.28		0.51	-20	0.02
东天山	54	-240	-0.09		2.1	17.6	0.08