地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (1): 18-26.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701002
收稿日期:
2016-08-24
修回日期:
2016-11-01
出版日期:
2017-01-20
发布日期:
2017-01-20
作者简介:
作者简介:陈亚宁(1958-), 男, 研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110004398M), 主要从事干旱区水资源与地表过程研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Yaning CHEN(), Zhi LI, Gonghuan FANG, Haijun DENG
Received:
2016-08-24
Revised:
2016-11-01
Published:
2017-01-20
Online:
2017-01-20
Supported by:
摘要:
本文结合资料分析和文献阅读,对全球气候变化背景下的中亚天山山区水文、水资源变化进行了讨论分析。在全球升温滞缓背景下,中亚天山山区在过去的10余年,气温却一直处于高位态波动状态;气候变暖及持续高位态波动加剧了山区冰川和积雪等固态水体的消融,导致山区降雪率降低,天山山区降雪率从1960-1998年的11%~24%降低到2000年以来的9%~21%,有97.52%的冰川表现为退缩状态,水储量呈明显减少趋势,减小幅度约为-3.72 mm/a;气候变暖直接影响区域水循环和水系统的稳定性,引起径流补给方式和水资源数量的改变,加大了水资源时空分布的不确定性。天山山区在短时期内因冰雪融水增多,会出现径流量增加现象。但在未来气候持续变暖、降水条件维持不变的条件下,河川径流量将会出现减少趋势。
陈亚宁, 李稚, 方功焕, 邓海军. 气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1): 18-26.
Yaning CHEN, Zhi LI, Gonghuan FANG, Haijun DENG. Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountians, Central Asia[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 18-26.
表1
中亚天山Karatal River流域冰川变化[22]
分区 | 冰川面积(km2)/数目(条) | 面积变化(%)/年平均变化率(%) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1956年 | 1989年 | 2001年 | 2012年 | 1956-1989年 | 1989-2012年 | 1956-2012年 | ||
Terisakkan | 14.1/36 | 8.4/21 | 6.5/21 | 5.1/17 | -40/-1.22 | -39/-1.68 | -63/-1.13 | |
Koksu | 108.6/167 | 75.3/149 | 64.1/140 | 56.1/135 | -31/-0.93 | -26/-1.11 | -48/-0.86 | |
Shyzhyn | 8.7/19 | 4.9/11 | 4.2/10 | 3.8/10 | -44/-1.32 | -22/-1.32 | -56/-1.0 | |
Kora | 49.3/66 | 50.8/62 | 45.6/55 | 42.7/52 | -22/-0.68 | -21/-0.91 | -39/-0.69 | |
Total | 198.9/285 | 142.8/243 | 122.2/226 | 109.3/214 | -28/-0.86 | -23/-1.02 | -45/-0.81 | |
Glaciers <0.1 in 1956 | 3.6/73 | 2.36/77 | 0.76/39 | 0.59/34 | -34/-1.0 | -75/-3.2 | -83/-1.5 |
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