地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (1): 18-26.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701002

• 气候与植被 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究

陈亚宁(), 李稚, 方功焕, 邓海军   

  1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-24 修回日期:2016-11-01 出版日期:2017-01-20 发布日期:2017-03-23
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:陈亚宁(1958-), 男, 研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110004398M), 主要从事干旱区水资源与地表过程研究。E-mail: chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41630859, 41471030)

Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountians, Central Asia

Yaning CHEN(), Zhi LI, Gonghuan FANG, Haijun DENG   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
  • Received:2016-08-24 Revised:2016-11-01 Online:2017-01-20 Published:2017-03-23
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41630859, No.41471030

摘要:

本文结合资料分析和文献阅读,对全球气候变化背景下的中亚天山山区水文、水资源变化进行了讨论分析。在全球升温滞缓背景下,中亚天山山区在过去的10余年,气温却一直处于高位态波动状态;气候变暖及持续高位态波动加剧了山区冰川和积雪等固态水体的消融,导致山区降雪率降低,天山山区降雪率从1960-1998年的11%~24%降低到2000年以来的9%~21%,有97.52%的冰川表现为退缩状态,水储量呈明显减少趋势,减小幅度约为-3.72 mm/a;气候变暖直接影响区域水循环和水系统的稳定性,引起径流补给方式和水资源数量的改变,加大了水资源时空分布的不确定性。天山山区在短时期内因冰雪融水增多,会出现径流量增加现象。但在未来气候持续变暖、降水条件维持不变的条件下,河川径流量将会出现减少趋势。

关键词: 气候变化, 冰川积雪, 降雪率, 水文水资源, 中亚天山

Abstract:

Changes in hydrological processes and water resources under climate change in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia have been investigated based on data analysis and paper review. Under the context of global warming hiatus, temperature of the Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia has been in a state of high variability, which has accelerated the melting of glacier and snow. Warming has resulted in a series of changes in water resources. Snowfall fraction decreased from 11%-24% in 1960-1998 to 9%-21% in 2000-2014, 97.25% of the glaciers retreated in the last 50 years; and water storage decreased at a rate of -3.72 mm/a during 2003-2014. Warming has led to changes in mountainous hydrological processes and water resources. The runoff in the Tianshan Mountains has increased due to the accelerated glacier/snow melt, however, the runoff will decrease in the long term under continuous warming and current precipitation conditions.

Key words: climate change, glacier and snow, snowfall fraction, water resources, Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia