地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (1): 3-17.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701001

• 气候与植被 •    下一篇

中国综合气候变化风险区划

吴绍洪1, 潘韬1, 刘燕华1, 邓浩宇1,2, 焦珂伟1,2, 陆晴1,2, 冯爱青1,2, 岳溪柳1,2, 尹云鹤1, 赵东升1, 高江波1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2016-07-22 修回日期:2016-10-10 出版日期:2017-01-20 发布日期:2017-03-23
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吴绍洪(1961-), 男, 广东潮州人, 博士, 研究员, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110000894M), 主要研究方向为自然地理综合研究与全球变化。E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(41530749);中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013034);“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B10);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41301092)

Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China

Shaohong WU1, Tao PAN1, Yanhua LIU1, Haoyu DENG1,2, Kewei JIAO1,2, Qing LU1,2, Aiqing FENG1,2, Xiliu YUE1,2, Yunhe YIN1, Dongsheng ZHAO1, Jiangbo GAO1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2016-07-22 Revised:2016-10-10 Online:2017-01-20 Published:2017-03-23
  • Supported by:
    Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530749;Grants Program of China Clean Development Mechanism Fund, No.2013034;National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the 12th Five-year Plan Period, No.2012BAC19B10;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41301092

摘要:

气候变化作用于自然环境与社会经济系统,产生一系列影响。随着未来社会经济发展,气候变化危险性与自然环境和社会经济承险体耦合形成有规律的风险时空格局。将此时空格局系统化表达即是综合气候变化风险区划,是适应气候变化的科学基础之一。本文基于RCP 8.5下的近中期(2021-2050年)气候情景,分析了中国未来气温和降水变化趋势与速率,评价了干旱、高温热浪以及洪涝等极端事件危险性,选取人口、经济、粮食生产和生态系统等承险体风险作为综合风险定量评估的指标。在系统性、主导因素以及空间连续性原则的指导下,提出中国综合气候变化风险区划三级区域系统方案,划分出8个气候变化敏感区、19个极端事件危险区和46个承险体综合风险区。结果发现:2021-2050年RCP 8.5情景下中国的气候变化高风险区主要包括:华北弱暖增雨敏感区,华北平原热浪危险区,人口经济粮食高风险区;华南—西南弱暖增雨敏感区,黔滇山地热浪危险区,生态经济粮食人口高风险区;华南沿海涝热危险区,生态粮食经济人口高风险区。中国综合气候变化风险区划涵盖了气候变化情景、极端事件发生、社会经济与生态系统的可能损失信息,可以为国家或地方应对气候变化及气候变化风险管理提供科技支撑。

关键词: 综合气候变化风险, 区划, 气候变化敏感区, 极端事件危险区, 承险体综合风险区, 中国

Abstract:

The influence of climate change on the natural environmental and socio-economic system leads to a series of adverse effects. With the development of socio-economy, climate change hazards interact with the environmental and socio-economic risk bearing body and form the spatial-temporal patterns of climate change risk. The systematic expression of the spatial-temporal patterns is the scientific foundation of climate changes adaptation. Based on the RCP8.5 climate scenario data from 2021 to 2050, we analyzed the variation trend and rate of temperature and precipitation, and assessed the hazard of extreme climate events including drought, heat wave and flood. Then, economy, population, food production and ecosystem were selected as the risk bearing bodies to assess the possible impacts of climate change as the indices qualifying the comprehensive climate change risk. Under the guidance of systematic principle, predominating factor principle, as well as the space consecution principle, we proposed a scheme of three-level regional division system for the comprehensive climate change risk regionalization in China. Finally, the Chinese mainland was divided into 8 climate change sensitive zones, 19 danger zones of extreme events and 46 comprehensive risk zones of bearing body. The result shows that the climate changes high risk zones in China under the RCP8.5 climate scenario from 2021 to 2050 include North China weak warming and precipitation increased sensitive zone, North China Plain heat wave danger zone, population-economy-food high risk zone, South China-Southwest China weak warming and precipitation increased sensitive zone, Yunnan-Guizhou mountain heat wave danger zone, ecosystem-economy-food-population high risk zone; coastal South China flood-heat wave danger zone, ecosystem-food-economy-population high risk zone. The comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China covers the climate change scenarios, the extreme events, and the possible lost information of the socio-economy and ecosystem, which can provide scientific and technological support for national and local governments to cope with the climate change and risk management.

Key words: comprehensive climate change risk, regionalization, climate change sensitive zones, danger areas of extreme events, comprehensive risk zones of bearing body, China