中国综合气候变化风险区划

doi:10.11821/dlxb201701001

地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (1): 3-17.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701001

• 气候与植被 • 下一篇

中国综合气候变化风险区划

吴绍洪¹, 潘韬¹, 刘燕华¹, 邓浩宇^1,², 焦珂伟^1,², 陆晴^1,², 冯爱青^1,², 岳溪柳^1,², 尹云鹤¹, 赵东升¹, 高江波¹

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2016-07-22 修回日期:2016-10-10 出版日期:2017-01-20 发布日期:2017-01-20
作者简介:
作者简介：吴绍洪(1961-), 男, 广东潮州人, 博士, 研究员, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110000894M), 主要研究方向为自然地理综合研究与全球变化。E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41530749);中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013034);“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B10);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41301092)

Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China

Shaohong WU¹, Tao PAN¹, Yanhua LIU¹, Haoyu DENG^1,², Kewei JIAO^1,², Qing LU^1,², Aiqing FENG^1,², Xiliu YUE^1,², Yunhe YIN¹, Dongsheng ZHAO¹, Jiangbo GAO¹

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2016-07-22 Revised:2016-10-10 Published:2017-01-20 Online:2017-01-20
Supported by:
Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530749;Grants Program of China Clean Development Mechanism Fund, No.2013034;National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the 12th Five-year Plan Period, No.2012BAC19B10;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41301092

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化作用于自然环境与社会经济系统,产生一系列影响。随着未来社会经济发展,气候变化危险性与自然环境和社会经济承险体耦合形成有规律的风险时空格局。将此时空格局系统化表达即是综合气候变化风险区划,是适应气候变化的科学基础之一。本文基于RCP 8.5下的近中期（2021-2050年）气候情景,分析了中国未来气温和降水变化趋势与速率,评价了干旱、高温热浪以及洪涝等极端事件危险性,选取人口、经济、粮食生产和生态系统等承险体风险作为综合风险定量评估的指标。在系统性、主导因素以及空间连续性原则的指导下,提出中国综合气候变化风险区划三级区域系统方案,划分出8个气候变化敏感区、19个极端事件危险区和46个承险体综合风险区。结果发现：2021-2050年RCP 8.5情景下中国的气候变化高风险区主要包括：华北弱暖增雨敏感区,华北平原热浪危险区,人口经济粮食高风险区;华南—西南弱暖增雨敏感区,黔滇山地热浪危险区,生态经济粮食人口高风险区;华南沿海涝热危险区,生态粮食经济人口高风险区。中国综合气候变化风险区划涵盖了气候变化情景、极端事件发生、社会经济与生态系统的可能损失信息,可以为国家或地方应对气候变化及气候变化风险管理提供科技支撑。

关键词: 综合气候变化风险, 区划, 气候变化敏感区, 极端事件危险区, 承险体综合风险区, 中国

Abstract:

The influence of climate change on the natural environmental and socio-economic system leads to a series of adverse effects. With the development of socio-economy, climate change hazards interact with the environmental and socio-economic risk bearing body and form the spatial-temporal patterns of climate change risk. The systematic expression of the spatial-temporal patterns is the scientific foundation of climate changes adaptation. Based on the RCP8.5 climate scenario data from 2021 to 2050, we analyzed the variation trend and rate of temperature and precipitation, and assessed the hazard of extreme climate events including drought, heat wave and flood. Then, economy, population, food production and ecosystem were selected as the risk bearing bodies to assess the possible impacts of climate change as the indices qualifying the comprehensive climate change risk. Under the guidance of systematic principle, predominating factor principle, as well as the space consecution principle, we proposed a scheme of three-level regional division system for the comprehensive climate change risk regionalization in China. Finally, the Chinese mainland was divided into 8 climate change sensitive zones, 19 danger zones of extreme events and 46 comprehensive risk zones of bearing body. The result shows that the climate changes high risk zones in China under the RCP8.5 climate scenario from 2021 to 2050 include North China weak warming and precipitation increased sensitive zone, North China Plain heat wave danger zone, population-economy-food high risk zone, South China-Southwest China weak warming and precipitation increased sensitive zone, Yunnan-Guizhou mountain heat wave danger zone, ecosystem-economy-food-population high risk zone; coastal South China flood-heat wave danger zone, ecosystem-food-economy-population high risk zone. The comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China covers the climate change scenarios, the extreme events, and the possible lost information of the socio-economy and ecosystem, which can provide scientific and technological support for national and local governments to cope with the climate change and risk management.

Key words: comprehensive climate change risk, regionalization, climate change sensitive zones, danger areas of extreme events, comprehensive risk zones of bearing body, China

吴绍洪, 潘韬, 刘燕华, 邓浩宇, 焦珂伟, 陆晴, 冯爱青, 岳溪柳, 尹云鹤, 赵东升, 高江波. 中国综合气候变化风险区划[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1): 3-17.

Shaohong WU, Tao PAN, Yanhua LIU, Haoyu DENG, Kewei JIAO, Qing LU, Aiqing FENG, Xiliu YUE, Yunhe YIN, Dongsheng ZHAO, Jiangbo GAO. Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 3-17.

图/表 8

表1

表2

中国综合气候变化风险区划系统

气候变化敏感区	极端事件危险区	承险体风险区
I 东北强暖增雨敏感区	A 大小兴安岭—内蒙古高原干旱危险区	I A 1(ba) 经济人口低风险区 I A 1(bac) 经济人口生态低风险区 I A 1(cab) 生态人口经济低风险区 I A 2(cba) 生态经济人口中低风险区 I A 3(cab) 生态人口经济中风险区
I 东北强暖增雨敏感区	B 松辽平原—长白山山地洪涝危险区	I B 1(ba) 经济人口低风险区 I B 2(ba) 经济人口中低风险区 I B 2(bacd) 经济人口生态粮食中低风险区
II 华北弱暖增雨敏感区	A 黄土高原干旱危险区	II A 1(ba) 经济人口低风险区 II A 2(badc) 经济人口粮食生态中低风险区 II A 2(cba) 生态经济人口中低风险区 II A 3(bacd) 人口经济生态粮食中风险区
	B 华东沿海洪涝危险区	II B 3(abc) 人口经济生态中风险区 II B 3(ba) 经济人口中风险区 II B 4(abdc) 人口经济粮食生态中高风险区
	C 华北平原热浪危险区	II C 3(bad) 经济人口粮食中风险区 II C 3(badc) 经济人口粮食生态中风险区 II C 5(abd) 人口经济粮食高风险区
	D 鄂尔多斯高原旱热危险区	II D 1(bac) 经济人口生态低风险区 II D 2(cab) 生态人口经济中低风险区
III 华东—华中强暖减雨敏感区	B 东南沿海洪涝危险区	III B 2(adb) 人口粮食经济中低风险区 III B 4(dabc) 粮食人口经济生态中高风险区
	C 四川盆地—鄂黔山地热浪危险区	III C 2(abd) 人口经济粮食中低风险区 III C 2(ba) 经济人口中低风险区 III C 3(abc) 人口经济生态中风险区
	E 长江中下游涝热危险区	III E 3(abc) 人口经济生态中风险区 III E 4(abdc) 人口经济粮食生态中高风险区
IV 华南—西南弱暖增雨敏感区	A 滇西—滇中干旱危险区	IV A 1(bac) 经济人口生态低风险区 IV A 4(dcba) 粮食生态经济人口中高风险区
	C 黔滇山地热浪危险区	IV C 3(bcda) 经济生态粮食人口中低风险区 IV C 5(cbda) 生态经济粮食人口高风险区
	E 华南沿海涝热危险区	IV E 3(dba) 粮食经济人口中风险区 IV E 5(cdba) 生态粮食经济人口高风险区
V 西北强暖增雨敏感区	C 东塔里木盆地热浪危险区	V C 1(dba) 粮食经济人口低风险区 V C 2(dab) 粮食人口经济中低风险区
V 西北强暖增雨敏感区	D 新甘蒙—准格尔旱热危险区	V D 1(abc) 人口经济生态低风险区 V D 1(ba) 经济人口低风险区 V D 2(dab) 粮食人口经济中低风险区
VI 西北弱暖减雨敏感区	A 天山高山盆地干旱危险区	VI A 2(cbad) 生态经济人口粮食中低风险区
VI 西北弱暖减雨敏感区	C 西塔里木盆地热浪危险区	VI C 1(d) 粮食低风险区 VI C 3(dba) 粮食经济人口中风险区
VII 青藏高原弱暖增雨敏感区	A 青藏高原东部干旱危险区	VII A 1(ba) 经济人口低风险区 VII A 2(dcba) 粮食生态经济人口中低风险区
VII 青藏高原弱暖增雨敏感区	B 东喜马拉雅南翼洪涝危险区	VII B 1(cab) 生态人口经济低风险区
VIII 青藏高原强暖增雨敏感区	A 青藏高原中西部干旱危险区	VIII A 0 基本无风险区 VIII A 1(dba) 粮食经济人口低风险区

表2

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

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指标名称	轻度	中度	重度
综合气象干旱指数(CI)	-1.8<CI ≤ -1.2	-2.4<CI ≤ -1.8	CI ≤ -2.4
高温热浪指数(HI)	2.8 ≤ HI<6.5	6.5 ≤ HI<10.5	HI ≥1 0.5
洪涝指数(FI)*	30(35)~150 mm	150~250 mm	≥ 250 mm

中国综合气候变化风险区划

Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China

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