地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (11): 1875-1885.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201611001
• 气候与水文 • 下一篇
刘剑宇1,2(), 张强3,4(
), 陈喜5, 顾西辉1,2
收稿日期:
2016-07-09
修回日期:
2016-10-22
出版日期:
2016-11-25
发布日期:
2016-11-29
作者简介:
作者简介:刘剑宇(1991-), 男, 江西丰城人, 博士生, 主要从事气象水文学研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Jianyu LIU1,2(), Qiang ZHANG3,4(
), Xi CHEN5, Xihui GU1,2
Received:
2016-07-09
Revised:
2016-10-22
Online:
2016-11-25
Published:
2016-11-29
Supported by:
摘要:
利用中国372个水文站月径流数据(1960-2000年)及41个水文站年径流数据(2001-2014年),采用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程,构建气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响定量评估模型,在Penman-Monteith潜在蒸发分析基础上,进一步分析气象因子对径流变化的弹性系数,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:① 中国北方地区流域径流变化对各气象因子弹性系数明显大于中国南方地区。就全国而言,径流变化对各因子的弹性系数为:降水>土地利用/土地覆盖变化(LUCC)>相对湿度>太阳辐射>最高气温>风速>最低气温;② 1980-2000年,气候变化总体上有利于增加中国年径流量,而降水对年径流量增加的贡献最为显著;③ 1980-2000年,中国南方流域中,气候变化对年径流变化的影响以增加作用为主,而北方流域,以减少年径流作用为主。对中国大多数流域径流变化而言,人类活动的影响主要以减少年径流量为主。2001-2014年,气候变化以减少径流量为主,人类活动对径流变化的影响程度明显增强,气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为53.5%、46.5%。该研究对气候变化与人类活动影响下,中国水资源规划管理、防灾减灾及保障水资源安全具有重要理论与现实意义。
刘剑宇, 张强, 陈喜, 顾西辉. 气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(11): 1875-1885.
Jianyu LIU, Qiang ZHANG, Xi CHEN, Xihui GU. Quantitative evaluations of human- and climate-inducedimpacts on hydrological processes of China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(11): 1875-1885.
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