地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (10): 1741-1751.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201610007

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中国经济权力空间格局演化研究——基于国家间相互依存的敏感性与脆弱性分析

杜德斌1,2(), 段德忠1,2, 杨文龙1,2, 马亚华3   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 200062
    2. 华东师范大学科技创新与发展战略研究中心,上海 200062
    3. 上海师范大学商学院,上海 200235
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-24 修回日期:2016-05-23 出版日期:2016-11-28 发布日期:2016-11-28
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:杜德斌(1963-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110000210M), 长期从事世界地理和科技创新问题研究。E-mail: dbdu@re.ecnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41471108)

Spatial evolution pattern of Chinese economic power based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of states interdependence

DU Debin1,2(), DUAN Dezhong1,2, YANG Wenlong1,2, MA Yahua3   

  1. 1. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    2. Institute for Innovation and Strategic Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 20062, China
    3. School of Business, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200235, China
  • Received:2015-12-24 Revised:2016-05-23 Online:2016-11-28 Published:2016-11-28
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41471108

摘要:

在全球化时代,地缘政治逻辑发生了变化,不对称相互依存替代军事实力成为国家权力的重要来源,在此背景下和平崛起的中国正在以经济实力改写世界政治版图。本文基于国家间相互依存理论,利用双边贸易数据分析中国与世界各国经济相互依存的非对称性,以此构建中国经济权力评价模型,研究中国崛起过程中经济权力的空间演变格局。主要结论为:① 中国对外贸易的地理分布明显呈现由过度集中于东亚、西欧和北美的三极格局向更加均衡格局转变,但全球对华贸易依存度最高的国家依然集中在低纬度的亚非拉地区;② 世界各国对中国的贸易高敏感区呈现出由亚太向非洲、拉美地区推进的趋势,而高脆弱区域则呈现出由点状散布向连片生长转变的趋势;③ 中国经济权力空间已由周边扩展至全球,并向发达世界渗透,而同时期美国经济权力空间却呈现收缩趋势。

关键词: 敏感性, 脆弱性, 经济权力, 空间格局, 中国

Abstract:

The process of China's rise is the outward expansion of its power space. In times of peace, the interdependence based on trade and investment become the core and foundation of international relations, but the nature of political power among countries has not changed. Asymmetric interdependence has been an alternative to military power, which has become an important source of power. Participation in international mechanism is the main way to achieve China's peaceful rise. Extending the boundaries of the global market has become the main form of China's rise, which results in the reconstruction of the world political landscape and the expansion of Chinese economic power. Based on the theory of economic interdependence, this paper constructs the evaluation model of economic power through analyzing the sensitivity and vulnerability of the world's countries to China's global trade by adopting the trade data between China and the other countries of world in 2002 and 2013, so as to study the spatial expansion pattern of economic power in the context of China's rise. From 2002 to 2013, China's global trade patterns had developed from the tripartite confrontation pattern dominated by East Asia, Western Europe and North America to multi-polar pattern. However, the dependence spatial pattern of world trade and economy to China global trade has presented the other scene, showing a good spatial and temporal inertia that is highly concentrated in Asia, Africa and Latin America near the equator. The distribution of the areas sensitive to China's global trade showed an advancing trend from Asia-Pacific to Africa, Latin America, but the distribution of the areas vulnerable to China's global trade had evolved from point spread to contiguous growth. China's economic power space has expanded from peripheral to the world, and to the developed countries and regions, while the United States in the same period, showing a significant contraction trend.

Key words: sensitivity, vulnerability, economic power, spatial pattern, China