地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (10): 1731-1740.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201610006

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基于家庭区位需求的城市住房价格模拟分析

牛方曲1, 刘卫东1, 冯建喜2()   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,南京 210093
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-22 修回日期:2016-05-09 出版日期:2016-11-28 发布日期:2016-11-28
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:牛方曲(1979-), 男, 安徽淮南人, 博士, 助理研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110010701M), 主要研究方向为城市与区域可持续发展模拟与分析。E-mail: niufq@lreis.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41530751, 41101119, 41401150)建设部2015年度研究计划(2015-R2-008);National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530751, No.41101119, No.41401150MOHURD 2015 Research Plan, No.2015-R2-008

Modeling urban housing price: The perspective of household activity demand

NIU Fangqu1, LIU Weidong1, FENG Jianxi2()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modelling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2015-12-22 Revised:2016-05-09 Online:2016-11-28 Published:2016-11-28

摘要:

目前关于城市住房价格异质性和影响因素研究多侧重于空间位置分析,从城市系统角度刻画住房价格分异现象有待进一步探索。根据“土地利用—交通相互作用理论”,城市空间的发展过程是各类活动通过交通相互作用的过程,本文构建了交通可达性模型,综合全市经济活动空间分布和交通网络评价城市区位条件,并以北京为例,从就业、教育、消费、医疗服务等各方面评价了城市区位条件,在此基础上依据家庭成员结构,模拟分析了家庭区位需求对住房价格的影响。案例研究表明,本模型对房价的模拟可以在全市范围内达到很好的效果;家庭的区位选择决定着住房价格的空间格局;各类活动中就业对北京市房价分布影响最为显著,其次是消费、教育,而医疗服务对住房价格影响相对较弱。此外,本文所提出的模型系统阐述了城市经济活动分布格局对住房价格的影响,经济活动分布发生变化时模拟结果随之变化,因此,本模型可以进一步拓展用于“以业带人”政策实验,模拟分析疏散各类经济活动后住房价格的变化,也为城市房价及土地市场分析研究提供模型方法上的参考。

关键词: 模型模拟, 交通可达性, 住房价格, 家庭, 经济活动, 出行

Abstract:

Existing studies on the heterogeneities and determinants of urban housing price have put overwhelming emphasis on the 'location theory', which is generally descriptive rather than modeling in nature. More research which can systematically explore the spatial heterogeneities of urban housing price is needed. Given that housing price is, to some extent, the reflection of household activity demand, the paper therefore attempts to model urban housing price from this perspective on the basis of urban transport-land use interaction model. Taking Beijing as an empirical case, this research first develops a new measurement of accessibility which can directly depict the cost and possibilities to access opportunities of different activities such as employments, educational, shopping and medical services. According to the composition of different households and their different demands for activities, the paper then analyzes the relations between urban housing price and these demands. The empirical results demonstrate that the spatial pattern of housing price can be relatively well represented by the regression model. Among the four kinds of accessibilities, employment accessibility is found to be the most profound factor influencing housing price, while the next is followed by shopping, education accessibility. Medical service accessibility demonstrates the least influences on housing price. The approach and method proposed in this paper can well demonstrate how the distributions of different activities influence the spatial pattern of urban housing price and therefore have the potential to simulate the results of various urban land use policies, such as 'Decentralization Policies'. Finally, the policy implications of the model are discussed at the end of the paper.

Key words: modeling, accessibility, housing price, household, activity, travel