地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (10): 1696-1709.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201610003

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中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响因素——基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据

林李月1,2, 朱宇1,2,3()   

  1. 1. 福建师范大学地理研究所,福州 350007
    2. 湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室,福州 350007
    3. 上海大学亚洲人口研究中心,上海 200444
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-16 修回日期:2016-05-31 出版日期:2016-11-28 发布日期:2016-11-28
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:林李月(1985-), 女, 福建霞浦人, 博士, 副研究员, 中国地理学学会会员(S110010108M), 研究方向为人口迁移与城乡发展。E-mail: lly30@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(4150116341471132)福建省自然科学基金项目(2014J05047)福建省省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项(2016R1032-6);National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41501163, No.41471132 Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province, No.2014J05047 Public-Funded Key Projects of Department of Science and Technology of Fujian, No.2016R1032-6]

Spatial variation and its determinants of migrants' Hukou transfer intention of China's prefecture- and provincial-level cities:Evidence from the 2012 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey

LIN Liyue1,2, ZHU Yu1,2,3()   

  1. 1. Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Fujian Normal University), Ministry of Education, Fuzhou 350007, China
    3. Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
  • Received:2015-11-16 Revised:2016-05-31 Online:2016-11-28 Published:2016-11-28

摘要:

基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和相关统计年鉴数据,对中国地级以上城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿、空间格局及影响因素进行了系统分析。研究发现,中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的整体水平并不高;等级高、规模大的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,而等级低、规模小的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低;沿海城市群流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,其他城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低,但内陆部分省会城市和交通区位与资源禀赋较好的中小城市也已经形成了一批流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高值区。中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间分布特征受到流入城市和流动人口自身双重力量的影响,流入城市因素的正向影响作用大于流动人口自身因素。其中,流入城市的社会、经济发展水平和流动人口在流入城市的社会融合程度是核心要素,对城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的提升具有正向的促进作用,而流动人口过于集中在次级劳动力市场的就业特征和较高的家庭财富与收入对户籍迁移意愿的提升却具有显著的抑制作用。最后,提出了相关政策启示。

关键词: 流动人口, 户籍迁移意愿, 空间格局, 地级以上城市, 中国

Abstract:

Based on data from the 2012 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey and related statistics, this article examines the spatial pattern and its determinants of migrants' intention of hukou transfer of China's 276 prefecture- and provincial-level cities, using GIS spatial analysis and statistical modelling. The results show that the overall level of migrants' hukou transfer intention of the cities is not high, and varies significantly among different cities. The intention of migrants' hukou transfer increases as the administrative level and/or the size of their destination cities increase. Meanwhile, migrants' hukou transfer intention is generally higher in coastal mega-city regions than in other cities, but it is also relatively high in some provincial capital cities and small and medium-sized cities in some inland regions with good transport location and resource endowment. The spatial pattern of migrants' intention of hukou transfer is shaped jointly by both the characteristics of the destination cities and migrants themselves characteristics, with the former exerting more influence than the latter. High level of socioeconomic development and good location of the destination cities can effectively promote their migrants' intention of hukou transfer; however, their level of basic public services does not have the same effect. The degree of migrants' social integration in the destination cities also exerts positive effects on their hukou transfer intention. However, having medical insurance, the concentration in the secondary labor market and higher household income are negatively related to such intention; furthermore, the individual and family characteristics of migrants do not have a significant impact on it. Finally, on the basis of the above findings, we put forward some suggestions for relevant policy making.

Key words: migrants, hukou transfer intention, spatial difference, prefecture- and provincial-level cities, China