地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (9): 1571-1587.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201609009

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CFSR气象数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性评价——以灞河流域为例

胡胜1(), 曹明明1, 邱海军1, 宋进喜1, 吴江1, 高宇2, 李京忠1, 孙克红2   

  1. 1. 西北大学城市与环境学院,西安 710127
    2. 陕西省土地工程建设集团,西安 710175
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-17 修回日期:2016-04-22 出版日期:2016-11-25 发布日期:2016-11-28
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:胡胜(1988-), 湖北枣阳人, 博士生, 主要从事水文水资源与地质灾害研究。E-mail: husheng198800@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41401602);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2014JQ2-4021);陕西省重点科技创新团队计划项目(2014KCT-27);西北大学研究生自主创新项目(YZZ15011)

Applicability evaluation of CFSR climate data for hydrologic simulation: A case study in the Bahe River Basin

Sheng HU1(), Mingming CAO1, Haijun QIU1, Jinxi SONG1, Jiang WU1, Yu GAO2, Jingzhong LI1, Kehong SUN2   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China
    2. Shaanxi Provincial Land Engineering Construction Group, Xi'an 710175, China
  • Received:2016-03-17 Revised:2016-04-22 Online:2016-11-25 Published:2016-11-28
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41401602;The Project Supported by Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China, No.2014JQ2-4021;Key Scientific and Technological Innovation Team Plan of Shaanxi Province, No.2014KCT-27;Graduate Student Innovation Project of Northwest University, No.YZZ15011

摘要:

近年来,全球再分析气象数据已经越来越多地被运用到世界各地的水文建模中,但是其模拟的效果有很大差异。为探讨CFSR再分析数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性问题,本文以灞河流域为研究区,使用两种气象数据(传统气象数据和CFSR气象数据)构建SWAT水文模型,并从年和月尺度分别进行灞河流域2001-2012年的径流模拟,利用回归分析、纳什效率系数NSE和百分比偏差PBIAS等评价方法对两种数据的模拟效果进行对比。最后,提出了CFSR气象数据订正的方法。结果表明:① CFSR气象数据在灞河流域水文模拟中有一定的适用性,模拟结果的拟合优度R2>0.50,NSE>0.33,|PBIAS|<14.8,纳什效率系数NSE偏低。尽管CFSR气象数据质量存在一定问题,但是经过降雨数据订正后能够取得比较满意的模拟效果。② CFSR气象数据模拟流量比实测流量偏高,这主要是由于CFSR逐日降水数据估算的降雨天数较多、雨强较大,一般会导致该数据在水量平衡方面能够模拟出较高的基流和洪峰流量(个别年份除外)。③ 灞河流域CFSR降水数据(x)与实测降水数据(y)之间的关系大致可用幂指数方程表达:y = 1.4789x0.8875R2 = 0.98,P<0.001),每个CFSR站点的拟合方程略微不同,此方程为CFSR降水数据的订正提供了理论基础。

关键词: CFSR, 气象数据, 水文模拟, 适用性评价, SWAT模型, 灞河流域

Abstract:

To discuss the applicability of CFSR reanalysis data in the hydrologic simulation of watersheds, taking the Bahe River Basin as a case, this paper uses two types of weather data to establish SWAT hydrologic model, and carries out the runoff simulation from 2001 to 2012 of the Bahe River Basin on yearly and monthly scales, and makes use of such evaluation methods as repression analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) to compare the simulation effect of both data. At last it puts forward CFSR weather data correction method. The research results show: (1) To some extent, CFSR climate data has applicability for hydrologic simulation in the Bahe River Basin, the R2 value of the simulated results is above 0.50, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency is above 0.33, and |Percent Bias (PBIAS)| is below 14.8. Although the quality of the CFSR weather data has some problems, it basically achieves a satisfactory result in the hydrologic simulation of the Bahe River Basin after rainfall data correction. (2) The simulated flow of the CFSR weather data is higher than the observed flow, the reason may be that there are more rainy days and the rainfall intensity is much stronger according to the estimation of day-to-day rainfall data by CFSR, which usually leads to the fact that the data will simulate a higher base flow and flood peak discharge in terms of the Water Balance, except for individual years. (3) The relation between the CFSR rainfall data and the observed rainfall data of the Bahe River Basin can be displayed by a power exponent equation: y=1.4789x0. 8875 (R2 = 0.98, P <0.001); the fitted equation of each CFSR station varies slightly from others. The equation just lays a theoretical basis for correction of the CFSR rainfall data.

Key words: CFSR, weather data, hydrologic simulation, applicability evaluation, SWAT model, Bahe River Basin