地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (8): 1384-1399.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201608008

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地震灾害情景下产业空间网络风险评估——以日本丰田汽车为例

李卫江1(), 蒋湧2, 温家洪1, Jianping Yan3, 李仙德1   

  1. 1. 上海师范大学地理系,上海 200234
    2. 爱知大学地域政策学部,日本 丰桥 441-8522
    3. 联合国开发计划署,美国 纽约 10017
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-29 修回日期:2016-04-03 出版日期:2016-08-25 发布日期:2016-08-30
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李卫江(1976-), 男, 河南灵宝人, 博士, 副教授, 主要从事自然灾害风险评估、产业网络、GIS开发与应用研究。E-mail: lwj@shnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41301168)

Risk assessment of industrial geographical network in the scenario of seismic disaster: A case study of Toyota in Japan

Weijiang LI1(), Yong JIANG2, Jiahong WEN1, YAN Jianping3, Xiande LI1   

  1. 1. Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
    2. Faculty of Regional Policy, AICHI University, Toyohashi 441-8522, Japan
    3. United Nations Development Programme, New York 10017, USA
  • Received:2015-12-29 Revised:2016-04-03 Online:2016-08-25 Published:2016-08-30
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41301168

摘要:

以日本东南海地震为情景,以日本丰田汽车及其关联企业为例,基于工厂个体数据及其部件供应的拓扑和空间网络,模拟灾害风险在产业网络中扩散转移过程,建立直接损失与间接功能损失的评估模型,为产业空间网络风险评估提供新的思路和方法借鉴。结果表明:在东南海地震情景下,丰田汽车约48.1%的工厂将直接受损,其中生产设施损失约5587亿日元,厂房建筑损失约1980亿日元。由于关键工厂受损,将间接导致整个产业网络中断。在最长37日恢复情景下,将造成约9230亿日元的间接功能损失。地震灾害对丰田汽车产业网络影响显著,有必要采取有效措施进行减灾降险。

关键词: 地震, 海啸, 汽车产业, 产业空间网络, 风险评估, 日本

Abstract:

Taking eastern Nankai earthquake in Japan as a hazard scenario and Toyota as well as its related suppliers as a case, based on individual data of auto plants and their topological-geographical supply network, we simulated the propagation process of disaster risk in industry network, and established the models for direct physical damage and indirect function losses assessment, which provides an alternative risk assessment method for industrial geographical network. The results show that in the case of eastern Nankai earthquake, 48.1% of Toyota plants would be directly damaged, of which the production facility losses and building losses would be about 5587 billion yen and 1980 million yen, respectively. Due to the damage to some critical plants, it would indirectly lead to functional interruption of the industrial network. In the scenario of 37 days of recovery, the indirect monetary losses were estimated to be approximate 9230 billion yen. The threats and impacts of eastern Nankai earthquake disaster on the Toyota industrial network are significant, and it is necessary to take structural and non-structural measures to reduce the risk.

Key words: earthquake, tsunami, auto industry, industrial geographical network, risk assessment, Japan