中国粮食供需的区域格局研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb201608007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

粮食安全问题在世界范围内一直被高度关注。本文主要以中国333个地级市为基本研究单元,在粮食供需现状分析的基础上,借助GIS和Geoda空间分析工具,从区域的空间差异和时空变化两个角度,建立粮食供需模型,研究中国粮食供需的结构特征和空间分布规律。结果表明：① 2012年中国粮食供需结构为净余粮,仅有约52%的地级市能通过粮食生产保障基本粮食需求。② 粮食供需的空间分布具有区域差异性,基本呈现西缺粮东余粮,南缺粮北余粮的特点;③ 在省域和地级市两种空间单元尺度上,粮食供需有一定的规律,表现出明显相关性,呈集聚状态。④ 2008-2012年,中国的净余粮量增加,高余粮和高缺粮是主要的变化类型,其中高余粮区对余粮量增长的贡献率达到75.24%。

关键词: 粮食供需, 空间格局, 区域差异, 空间自相关, 中国

Abstract:

Food security has become a worldwide concern. Considering the huge population of China, the need for food security in the country cannot be overemphasized. Grain is an important source of food for the Chinese people. Therefore, it is necessary to understand grain output and deficit situation in China. In this study, with the help of GIS and Geoda analysis methods, we constructed a relationship model of grain output and deficit to understand the structure and spatial distribution. Based on population and grain statistic data from 2008 to 2012, this study took 333 prefectures and districts as objects. The results show that grain supply and demand are currently in a net surplus situation in China. There are 160 cities that could satisfy their grain needs by cultivation of grain, accounting for 48% of all prefecture units. In reference to grain supply-demand spatial distribution, there exists obvious regional differentiation, presenting grain deficit in western China, likewise for southern regions, and grain surplus in eastern and northern regions. In addition, the regularity of scale distribution is proposed. Grain supply-demand exhibits significant spatial correlation and clustering effects at provincial and prefecture levels. And lastly, the net amount of grain surplus gradually increased from 2008 to 2012. High grain-output and high grain-deficit are the dominant transfer types. The high grain-output regions make great contributions to the growing of grain surplus, accounting for 75.24% of the increment.

Key words: grain supply and demand, spatial pattern, regional difference, spatial autocorrelation, China

胡甜, 鞠正山, 周伟. 中国粮食供需的区域格局研究[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(8): 1372-1383.

Tian HU, Zhengshan JU, Wei ZHOU. Regional pattern of grain supply and demand in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(8): 1372-1383.

图/表 15

表1

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表2

图6

表3

图7

图8

图9

图10

图11

表4

参考文献 15

[1]	Bryceson D.Tanzanian grain supply: Peasant production and state policies. Food Policy, 1982, 4(2): 113-124. doi: 10.1016/0306-9192(82)90044-6
[2]	Maitra C, Rao D S P. Poverty-food security nexus: Evidence from a survey of urban slum dwellers in Kolkata. World Development, 2015, 72: 308-325. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.03.006
[3]	Gandhi V P, Zhou Zhangyue.Food demand and the food security challenge with rapid economic growth in the emerging economies of India and China. Food Research International, 2014, 63: 108-124. doi: 10.1016/j.foodres.2014.03.015
[4]	Zhou Qiaofu, Dai Erfu, Wu Shaohong, et al.Risk Assessment on food crops supply-demand balance under climate change in China. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2011, 47(6): 1105-1115.
[5]	Yao Chengsheng, Huang Lin, Lv Xi.Grain demand structure change in henan and its contribution rate to China's food security. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2014, 35(2): 163-167.
	[姚成胜, 黄琳, 吕晞. 河南省粮食消费结构变化及其对我国粮食安全的贡献率分析. 农业现代化研究, 2014, 35(2): 163-167.]
[6]	Zhang Ruijuan, Wu Laping.Research review on grain storage of Chinese farm households. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2012, 17(1): 176-181.
	[张瑞娟, 武拉平. 我国农户粮食储备问题研究. 中国农业大学学报, 2012, 17(1): 176-181.]
[7]	Feng Zhiming, Zhao Xia, Yang Yanzhao.Evolutionary trends of world cereal trade in recent 50 years from a view of spatial-temporal patterns and regional differences. Resources Science, 2010, 32(1): 2-10.
	[封志明, 赵霞, 杨艳昭. 近50年全球粮食贸易的时空格局与地域差异. 资源科学, 2010, 32(1): 2-10.]
[8]	Yin Peihong, Fang Xiuqi, Ma Yuling, et al.New regional pattern of grain supply-demand in China in the early 21st century. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006, 21(4): 625-631. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.016
	[殷培红, 方修琦, 马玉玲, 等. 21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(4): 625-631.] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.04.016
[9]	Zeng Lan, Zhang Yong, Zhang Xue, et al.A short-term model of grain supply-demand balance based on remote sensing for crop monitoring and agriculture statistical data. Journal of Remote Sensing, 2004, 8(6): 645-654. doi: 10.11834/jrs.20040615
	[曾澜, 张勇, 张雪, 等. 基于遥感估产和农业统计的粮食供需平衡模型研究. 遥感学报, 2004, 8(6): 645-654.] doi: 10.11834/jrs.20040615
[10]	He Yingbin, Chen Youqi, Yao Yanmin, et al.Study on spatial characteristics of the relation between arable land non-agriculturalization and food production: A case study of the provinces in Northeast China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(3): 439-447. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2009.03.008
	[何英彬, 陈佑启, 姚艳敏, 等. 区域耕地非农化与粮食产量关系空间特征研究: 以东北三省为例. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(3): 439-447.] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2009.03.008
[11]	Rosegrant M W, Agcaoili-Sombilla M, Perez N D.Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for investment. Inernational Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., 1995. doi: 10.1109/ICETET.2008.11
[12]	Xie Hualin, Liu Liming, Li Bo, et al.Spatial autocorrelation analysis of multi-scale land-use changes: A case study in Ongniud Banner, Inner Mongolia. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(4): 389-400. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2006.04.006
	[谢花林, 刘黎明, 李波, 等. 土地利用变化的多尺度空间自相关分析: 以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例. 地理学报, 2006, 61(4): 389-400.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2006.04.006
[13]	Li Yating, Pan Shaoqi, Miao Changhong.The spatial-temporal patterns of per capita share of grain at the county level in China: A comparation between registered population and resident population. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(12): 1753-1766. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201412002
	[李亚婷, 潘少奇, 苗长虹. 中国县域人均粮食占有量的时空格局: 基于户籍人口和常住人口的对比分析. 地理学报, 2014, 69(12): 1753-1766.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201412002
[14]	Liu Tao, Cao Guangzhong.Agglomeration and dispersion of city sizes and the influence of central cities: Based on the multi-scale spatial autocorrelation and the case of China. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(7): 1317-1327.
	[刘涛, 曹广忠. 城市规模的空间聚散与中心城市影响力: 基于中国637个城市空间自相关的实证. 地理研究, 2012, 31(7): 1317-1327.]
[15]	Ge Meiling, Feng Zhiming.Population distribution of China based on GIS: Classification of population densities and curve of population gravity centers. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(2): 202-210. doi: 10.11821/xb200902007
	[葛美玲, 封志明. 中国人口分布的密度分级与重心曲线特征分析. 地理学报, 2009, 64(2): 202-210.] doi: 10.11821/xb200902007

	高余粮区	中余粮区	低余粮区	低缺粮区	中缺粮区	高缺粮区
余粮量(万t)	10297.74	8679.81	3482.19
需粮量(万t)				5469.75	3469.65	5738.13

	Moran's I	E(I)	Sd.	Z统计量	p值
市域全局相关性	0.55	-0.0029	0.0325	17.1046	0.001
省域全局相关性	0.41	-0.0313	0.1048	4.2058	0.001

缺粮变余粮		2008年粮食需求 (万t)	2008年粮食产量 (万t)	2012年粮食需求 (万t)	2012年粮食产量 (万t)
云南	曲靖市	231.28	230.53	237.44	304.98
	普洱市	103.24	84.84	103	108.81
	文山壮族苗族自治州	137.2	116.32	142.44	149.15
	大理白族自治州	139.72	135.1	139.72	163.77
	德宏傣族景颇族自治州	47.4	46.02	49.16	73.55
河南	三门峡市	89.364	61.49	90.4	125.49
甘肃	定西市	117.404	98.15	110.768	137.37
湖南	邵阳市	301.636	300.34	286.8	318.59
余粮量增加
黑龙江省	绥化市	230.88	1082.68	230.8	1665.44
	齐齐哈尔市	227.68	790.31	223.64	1344.55
	哈尔滨市	396.04	1217.93	397.4	1735.01
	佳木斯市	100.68	452.18	95.76	842.32
	大庆市	110.88	336.65	112.68	650
	黑河市	69.56	202.33	69.12	404.45
新疆	伊犁哈萨克自治州	176.32	231.64	185.136	499.4
缺粮量减少
	重庆	1302.82	1153.2	1178	1138.5
云南	昭通市	211.8	150.42	211.84	203.2
云南	红河哈尼族彝族自治州	176.48	133.73	182.44	170
湖南	怀化市	201.852	165.93	191	182.26
余粮变缺粮
内蒙古	呼和浩特	105.408	119.4	117.952	117.5
	包头市	99.844	100.15	109.264	100.25
	乌兰察布市	85.528	125.09	85.176	85
辽宁	鞍山市	140.32	144	140.36	130.4
贵州	黔南布依族苗族自治州	137.312	144.76	129.056	121.1
贵州	铜仁地区	133.512	154.8	123.776	121.41
河南	漯河市	102.76	166.02	109.6	103.61
缺粮量增加
	上海市	755.384	115.67	952	121.3
	北京市	678	125.45	827.6	113.8
江苏	苏州市	271.688	113.22	420.748	116.46
余粮量减少
吉林	吉林市	173.432	457.66	172.316	382.3
河南	商丘市	331.344	585.71	358	542.39
	信阳市	321.12	561.21	342	519.53
	南阳市	436.544	569.66	466.4	545.62
贵州	遵义市	256.652	341.97	244.68	276.22