地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (8): 1357-1371.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201608006

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中国城市空气质量时空演化特征及社会经济驱动力

蔺雪芹1(), 王岱2()   

  1. 1. 首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京 100048
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-02 修回日期:2016-06-01 出版日期:2016-08-25 发布日期:2016-08-30
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:蔺雪芹(1980-), 女, 甘肃武威人, 博士, 副教授, 中国地理学会会员(S110008585M), 研究方向为城市地理与区域可持续发展。E-mail: lin-xueqin@139.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(41430636);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(16YJC790056)

Spatio-temporal variations and socio-economic driving forces of air quality in Chinese cities

Xueqin LIN1(), Dai WANG2()   

  1. 1. College of Resources Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2016-03-02 Revised:2016-06-01 Online:2016-08-25 Published:2016-08-30
  • Supported by:
    Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41430636;Youth Program of the Humanities and Social Science Research of Ministry of Education, No.16YJC790056

摘要:

城市空气污染是中国在快速城镇化和经济发展过程中亟待解决的难题。利用2013年和2014年全国城市空气质量数据,综合ArcGIS空间分析和统计分析,从年度、季节、月份、小时4个时间尺度比较归纳了全国城市空气质量的时空间演化特征,并采用空间计量模型,从全国和区域两个空间尺度,量化分析了城市空气质量变化的社会经济驱动力。结果表明:① 全国城市空气质量全年达标天数比例增加,但空气污染程度加重,高污染区域恶化态势明显;② 城市空气质量与生产生活活动表现出一定的时间耦合性,基本呈现“日出趋差、日落趋优”的态势;③ 全国城市空气污染表现出“东重西轻、北重南轻”的空间格局,区域一体化态势明显;④ 区域城市空气污染的总体程度和分布结构具有明显的分异特征,区域空气污染形成和演化路径可基本归纳为:“重点城市污染加重—重点城市污染扩散—区域整体污染加重—重点城市引领治污—区域污染联防联控—区域整体污染减轻”;⑤ 从全国层面看,能源消耗、工业化和技术进步是推动城市空气质量恶化的重要因素,经济发展对城市空气质量改善具有显著的推动作用。⑥ 受各地区资源环境基础和社会经济发展阶段影响,各类社会经济因素对城市空气质量改善的驱动方向和驱动强度差异明显。在结论的基础上,讨论了中国经济发展和环境变化关系的区域分异以及发展理念。

关键词: 城市空气质量, 时空演化, 社会经济, 驱动力, 城市, 中国

Abstract:

Air pollution is a serious problem brought by the rapid urbanization and economic development in China, imposing great challenges and threats to population health and the sustainability of the society. Based on the real-time air quality monitoring data obtained for each Chinese city from 2013 to 2014, the spatio-temporal characteristics of air pollution are analyzed using various exploratory spatial data analysis tools. With spatial econometric models, this paper further quantifies the influences of social and economic factors on air quality at both the national and regional scales. There are several important findings: (1) During 2013 and 2014, the number of days with air quality meeting the national standard are increasing, but the annual air quality is getting worse, which is evidenced by a significant increase of AQI values during the period (higher AQI values representing worse air quality). There also appear to be substantial regional variations in the sense that air quality tends to be better in the south and east of China compared with the northern and western China. In terms of temporal patterns, air quality in Chinese cities shows significant seasonal variations, with better-than-average air quality observed during summer and autumn while worse-than-average air quality in spring and winter. (2) With respect to the driving forces of air quality variations, energy consumption, industrialization, investment in technology, and economic development (per capita GDP) have been found to be statistically significantly associated with air quality at the national scale. For example, 1% increase in per capita GDP is related to a decrease of about 0.24% in AQI values (thus better air quality), everything else equal. (3) There is great heterogeneity in the driving forces of air quality among different regions. For instance, whilst one unit increase in industrialization rates (that is an increase of one percentage) is associated with 10.4% increase in AQI values at the national scale, the same amount of increase in industrialization rates is associated with 125.5% and 37.5% increases in AQI values in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan areas and the Yangtze River Delta, respectively. Such spatial heterogeneity has also been observed in the associations between air quality and energy consumption, investment in technology and per capita GDP, implying that geography should be taken into account in the future exploration of the relationships between economic development and air quality or general environmental pollution issues and in the design and implementation of government policies targeting air pollution deductions and sustainable development.

Key words: city air quality, spatio-temporal variations, social economy, driving forces, city, China