基于VSD框架的半干旱地区社会—生态系统脆弱性演化与模拟

doi:10.11821/dlxb201607007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用VSD（Vulnerability scoping diagram）评估框架,改进了针对县域尺度的脆弱性评估方法和技术;以黄土高原半干旱地区的榆林市为例,对VSD框架和SERV（Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability）模型进行整合,将系统脆弱性分解为暴露、敏感性、适应能力3个维度。应用SERV模型筛选脆弱性指标,在充分理解区域地理背景和暴露风险源的基础上,构建了符合当地生态环境特征的指标体系,运用RS与GIS空间技术,定量测度了榆林市2000-2011年社会—生态系统脆弱性空间分异特征及演化趋势,探讨了脆弱性时空演化内在原因。结果显示：榆林市社会—生态系统脆弱性呈现“西北东南高,长城沿线低”的空间格局,2000-2011年间系统脆弱性程度明显降低,系统发展趋势好转,但系统脆弱性与暴露风险空间差异显著;其中,暴露风险因子是系统脆弱性演化的关键因素,区域脆弱性与暴露风险空间异质受社会敏感性和经济适应能力等因子影响。最后,采用OWA多准则算法,基于决策者不确定性偏好,模拟了不同决策风险设置下区域脆弱性未来情景,并基于决策者理性风险区间,预测了不同发展导向下区域系统脆弱性差异,为研究区可持续性评估和降低脆弱性的风险预警机制建设提供决策参考。

关键词: 社会—生态系统（SESs）, VSD评估框架, 脆弱性, 榆林市

Abstract:

Taking the semi-arid area of Yulin City as an example, this study improves the vulnerability assessment methods and techniques on the county scale using VSD (Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) assessment framework, integrates the VSD framework and SERV (Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability) model, and decomposes the system vulnerability into three dimensions including exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Firstly, with the full understanding of the background and exposure risk source of the research area, the vulnerability indexes were screened out by the SERV model and the index system was constructed to assess the characteristics of the local eco-environment. Secondly, with the aid of RS and GIS, this study measured the spatial differentiation and evolution of social-ecological systems in Yulin City during the period 2000-2011 and explored intrinsic reasons for spatial-temporal evolution of vulnerability. The results are as follows: (1) The spatial pattern of Yulin City's SESs vulnerability is "high in northwest and southeast and low along the Great Wall", although the degree of system vulnerability reduced significantly during the period 2000-2011 and the system development trend is better, there is a sharp distinction in the spatial distribution between the system vulnerability and exposure risk; (2) The evolution of system vulnerability is influenced by the risk factors of exposure, and the regional vulnerability and the spatial heterogeneity of exposure risk are affected by the social sensitivity, economic adaptive capacity and other factors. Finally, according to the uncertainty of decision makers, the future scenarios of regional vulnerability are simulated under different decision risks by taking advantage of the OWA multi-criteria algorithm, and the vulnerability of regional system under different development directions was predicted based on the decision makers' rational risk interval.

Key words: social ecological system, VSD assessment framework, vulnerability, Yulin City

陈佳, 杨新军, 尹莎, 吴孔森. 基于VSD框架的半干旱地区社会—生态系统脆弱性演化与模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(7): 1172-1188.

Jia CHEN, Xinjun YANG, Sha YIN, Kongsen WU. The vulnerability evolution and simulation of the social-ecological systems in the semi-arid area based on the VSD framework[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(7): 1172-1188.

图/表 12

图1

图2

表1

暴露风险评估指标体系

维度层	要素类型	指标层	权重	指标说明与计算
暴露	干旱 (0.4126)	标准化降水指数SPI	0.2751	SPI-SRI干旱状态模型,将气象和水文干旱指标结合,采用12个月时间尺度反应河流水位、水库等周期变化;
	干旱 (0.4126)	标准化径流指数SRI	0.1375	SPI-SRI干旱状态模型,将气象和水文干旱指标结合,采用12个月时间尺度反应河流水位、水库等周期变化;
	水土流失(0.3275)	降雨侵蚀力因子R	0.0345	采用美国通用土壤流失方程(USLE)表达式如下: A=R×K×LS×C×P 式中：A为土壤流失量;R为降雨侵蚀力因子;K为土壤可蚀性因子;LS为坡长坡度因子;C为植被覆盖因子;P为水土保持措施因子。
		土壤可侵蚀性因子K	0.0629
		坡度坡长因子LS	0.0307
		作物覆盖与经营因子C	0.0900
		水土保持措施因子P	0.1095
	人类活动 (0.2599)	城镇化率UB	0.1049	样区综合土地利用强度计算公式为^[38]： $L x = ∑ i = n 4 A i × S i / S$ 式中：L_x表示第x个样区土地利用程度综合指数;A_i为第i级土地利用程度分级指数;S_i为第i级土地利用面积;S为样区内土地总面积。
	人类活动 (0.2599)	土地利用强度LD	0.1550

表1

表2

敏感性/适应力指标因子筛选结果

维度层	主成分要素	普适指标		指标性质	特定指标		指标性质
敏感性	基本人口主成分	女性人口比重(%) 农业人口比重(%) 农林牧渔业从业人口比重(%) 人口自然增长率(‰) 劳动力平均受教育程度(年) 人口密度(人/km²)		+ * - + - +	采掘业职工从业人数(人)		*
	农业与土地主成分	常用耕地面积比重(%) 水田/水浇地面积比重(%) 房屋建筑施工面积增长率(%) 因灾废弃耕地面积比重(%) 单位面积粮食产量(hm²/公斤)		* * + + -	水产养殖面积(hm²) 主要经济作物产量(红枣等)(t)		* -
	生态与环境主成分	森林覆盖率(%) 有效灌溉面积比重(%) 水土保持林面积(千hm²) 能源消费总量(吨标准煤)		- - - *	工业废物/水排放总量(万t)		+
	经济发展主成分	人均国内生产总值(元) 农林牧渔业总产值比重(%) 产业结构依赖性指数恩格尔系数单位GDP综合能耗(万元/吨标准煤)		- - + + +	单位GDP工业用水量(t/万元)		+
适应能力	教育与技术主成分	万人拥有教师数量(人/万人) 在校学生比例(%) 每百户拥有通讯设备数量(部/百户) “三废”综合利用产品产值(万元) 财政教育支出比重(%)		+ + + + +	工业废水排放达标率(%) 节水灌溉类机械(套)/排灌动力机械(千瓦)		+ +
	社会基础设施主成分	万人拥有医疗床位数(人/万人) 卫生事业从业人员(人) 农林水事务财政支出(万元) 人均社会保障补助支出(万元/万人) 交通运输仓储邮政从业人员(人)		+ + + + +	/
	人口与经济主成分	农民人均纯收入(元) 社会固定资产投资密度(万元/km²) 农林牧渔业总产值(万元) 第三产业增加值占GDP比重(%) 地方财政支出(万元）产业结构多样化指数		+ + + + + +	/
	防灾减灾设施主成分	水库库容量(万m³) 抗旱基础设施密度(个/km²) 当年造林面积(hm²) 水土保持林面积(千hm²)		+ + + +	堤防长度(km)		+
敏感性主成分结果				适应能力主成分结果
年份	2000	2005	2011	年份	2000	2005	2011
最小特征值	1.070	1.139	1.330	最小特征值	1.202	1.062	1.351
累积贡献率(%)	91.94	90.75	89.99	累积贡献率(%)	88.30	89.53	88.75

表2

图3

表3

图4

图5

图6

表4

图7

图8

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年份	类型	高脆弱	较高脆弱	中等脆弱	较低脆弱	低脆弱	中等以上脆弱
2000	比重(%)	1.098	16.116	49.373	21.459	11.951	66.587
2000	面积(km²)	478.836	7023.390	21515.901	9351.638	5208.232	29018.127
2005	比重(%)	1.791	2.679	57.833	25.471	12.224	62.303
2005	面积(km²)	780.551	1167.519	25202.816	11099.949	5327.163	27150.886
2011	比重(%)	1.460	5.644	44.871	45.863	2.160	51.975
2011	面积(km²)	636.319	2459.650	19553.933	19986.428	941.668	22649.902

决策风险系数决策者风险态度		a=0.0001 极乐观	a=0.1 乐观	a=0.5 较乐观	a=1 无偏好	a=2 较悲观	a=10 悲观	a=1000 极悲观
OWA 次序权重	环境与技术	1.000	0.786	0.301	0.090	0.008	0.000	0.000
	社会资源	0.000	0.056	0.124	0.090	0.024	0.000	0.000
	经济发展	0.000	0.034	0.095	0.090	0.041	0.000	0.000
	防灾减灾资源	0.000	0.025	0.080	0.090	0.057	0.000	0.000
	基本人口	0.000	0.020	0.071	0.090	0.074	0.000	0.000
	土地与农业	0.000	0.017	0.064	0.090	0.090	0.002	0.000
	生态环境	0.000	0.014	0.059	0.090	0.107	0.008	0.000
	经济资源	0.000	0.012	0.055	0.090	0.124	0.030	0.000
	干旱	0.000	0.011	0.051	0.090	0.140	0.093	0.000
	水土流失	0.000	0.010	0.048	0.090	0.157	0.251	0.000
	人类活动	0.000	0.009	0.046	0.090	0.173	0.614	1.000