地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (6): 1025-1044.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201606010

• 城镇化发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

2015-2030年中国新型城镇化发展及其资金需求预测

孙东琪(), 陈明星, 陈玉福, 叶尔肯·吾扎提()   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-20 修回日期:2016-02-26 出版日期:2016-06-30 发布日期:2016-07-05
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:孙东琪(1985-), 男, 山东单县人, 博士后, 中国地理学会会员(S110009101M), 主要研究方向为经济地理与区域发展。E-mail: sundq@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院重点部署项目(KJZD-EW-TZ-G10);国家自然科学基金项目(41501137, 41530634);中国博士后科学基金项目(2015M571107)

China's new-type urbanization and investment demand prediction analysis, 2015-2030

Dongqi SUN(), Mingxing CHEN Yufu CHEN, Wuzhati YEERKEN()   

  1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2015-05-20 Revised:2016-02-26 Online:2016-06-30 Published:2016-07-05
  • Supported by:
    The Chinese Academy of Sciences Priority Deployment Project, No.KJZD-EW-TZ-G10;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41501137, No.41530634;Project of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, No.2015M571107

摘要:

未来的新型城镇化如何发展是政府和社会各界广泛关注的问题。本文利用时间序列预测法、Logistic曲线估算法、复合函数估算法及建立模型等方法,借助SPSS和ArcGIS平台,对2015-2030年全国及31个省市区的城镇化发展进行预测研究。根据预测结果,探讨了中国城镇化率70.12%背景下的城镇化质量空间分异状况,估算了2015-2030年全国及31个省市区新型城镇化建设的资金需求。结果表明:① 2015-2030年,中国人口、城镇化率将分别达到14.45亿和70.12 %;② 2015-2030年,人口红利将不存在,会承受人口总量最大的压力。城镇人口自身再生产7016.26万,需要城镇化的农村人口为31567.96万,城市人口净增加3.86亿;③ 2015-2030年,从中国城镇化率时—空分异变化来看,各省市区城镇化率发展的差异性很大,但都在增长,而且增长的幅度空间差异性很大。从城镇化质量来看,也存在着极大的差异,不仅如此,有些省区其城镇化质量与经济社会不相协调;④ 2015-2030年,全国新型城镇化建设所需资金105.38万亿元,而各省市区的资金需求并不均衡,差别极大,资金需求最多的是广东,最少的是西藏,相差148.09倍。最后,就新型城镇化发展及投资建设等方面提出了相关建议。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 资金需求, 预测, 2015-2030, 中国

Abstract:

The development of the new-type urbanization in the future has aroused great attention from the government and the public. Initially, this research predicts the urbanization and population dynamics on both national and provincial levels from 2015 to 2030. On this basis, this study examines the spatial variation of urbanization given the national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Furthermore, it estimates the national and provincial demands of investment in the new urbanization. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The population and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12% respectively from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will be vanished when population pressure reaches its maximum. The re-production population will reach 70.16 million and a suburban population of 316.7 million will be urbanized, leaving an urban population of 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of each province will increase during 2015-2030, the difference of urbanization rate and urbanization quality between provinces is substantial. In some provinces, urbanization quality and eco-social development are uncoordinated. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is needed for the sake of new urbanization and the investment demand in each province varies largely: Guangdong province needs the most funding, which is 148.09 times as much as that of Tibet, which needs the least funding. In the final part, policy suggestions regarding the investment of the new urbanization are put forward.

Key words: new-type urbanization, urbanization investment, 2015-2030, forecast, China