地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (6): 984-997.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201606007

• 产业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

节能和就业导向下中国中部地区产业结构优化

孙威1(), 李文会1,2, 张文忠1, 唐志鹏1()   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-04 修回日期:2015-12-24 出版日期:2016-06-30 发布日期:2016-07-04
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:孙威(1975-), 男, 河南开封人, 博士, 副研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110008181M), 主要从事区域发展和空间规划研究。E-mail: sunw@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271146)

Industrial structure optimization in central China under energy conservation and employment constraints

Wei SUN1(), Wenhui LI1,2, Wenzhong ZHANG1, Zhipeng TANG1()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2015-07-04 Revised:2015-12-24 Online:2016-06-30 Published:2016-07-04
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41271146]

摘要:

产业结构优化是人文—经济地理学重要的研究对象,也是政府部门加强宏观调控的作用对象,更是近年来中国步入“新常态”面临的现实问题。研究采用多区域投入产出模型,结合线性规划,构建了节能和就业导向下产业结构整体最优的模型和优化度模型。结果表明:① 节能导向下,安徽的产业结构优化度最高(0.763),山西的产业结构优化度最低(0.662);就业导向下,江西的产业结构优化度最高(0.768),山西的产业结构优化度最低(0.659)。② 节能导向下,产业结构优化度与单位产值能耗、重工业比重负相关;就业导向下,产业结构优化度与国有经济比重、大型企业比重负相关。③ 如果考虑节能和就业不同的目标导向,中国中部6省之间产业结构优化的方向存在明显的差异。④ 整体看,中国中部地区应保持不变或适度提高资源型产业比重,较大提高交通运输设备制造业、通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业等现代制造业的比重,适度降低金属冶炼及压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业等比重。在服务业方面,较大提高燃气及水的生产和供应业、旅游业等比重,适度降低或较大降低批发零售业和餐饮业的比重,保持不变或适度降低交通运输及仓储业的比重。

关键词: 中部地区, 多区域投入产出模型, 线性规划, 产业结构, 就业, 能源消费, 中国

Abstract:

Optimizing industrial structure is an important research object of human-economic geography, and it is also the object of government departments to strengthen macro-control. This has become even greater problem that China has entered the "new normal" in recent years. The study uses a multi-regional input-output model, with linear programming to build an optimal model of industrial structure as well as a model of optimization degree under the energy constraint. The results show that: (1) Under the constraint of energy conservation, the optimization degree of industrial structure of Anhui province is the highest (0.763), while that of Shanxi is the lowest (0.662). Under the constraint of employment, the optimization degree of industrial structure of Jiangxi is the highest (0.768), while that of Shanxi is the lowest (0.659). (2) Under the constraint of energy conservation, the optimization degree of industrial structure is negatively related to the energy consumption per unit of output value and the proportion of heavy industry. Under the constraint of employment, the optimization degree of industrial structure is negatively related to the proportions of state-owned economy and large enterprises. (3) Considering different orientations of energy conservation and employment, the directions of industrial structure optimization of the six provinces in central China are obviously different. (4) As a whole, central China should maintain or moderately increase the proportion of resource-based industry, greatly raise the proportion of manufacturing including transport equipment and communication equipment, computers and other electronic equipment, moderately reduce the proportion of smelting and pressing of metals and manufacture of non-metallic mineral products. In terms of services, central China should greatly increase the proportions of the production and supply of gas and water industry and tourism, moderately or greatly reduce the proportions of wholesale and retail trade and catering, and maintain or moderately reduce the proportions of transportation and warehousing.

Key words: central China, multiregional input-output model, linear programming, industrial structure, employment, energy consumption, China