地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (6): 969-983.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201606006

• 产业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国对外贸易产品空间路径演化

贺灿飞1,2(), 董瑶1, 周沂1,2   

  1. 1. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871
    2. 北京大学-林肯研究院 城市发展与土地政策研究中心,北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-10 修回日期:2015-11-18 出版日期:2016-06-30 发布日期:2016-07-04
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:贺灿飞(1972-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110005164M), 主要研究方向为经济地理,产业和区域经济等。E-mail: hecanfei@urban.pku.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家杰出青年科学基金项目(41425001);国家自然科学基金项目(41271130)

Evolution of export product space in China: Path-dependent or path-breaking?

Canfei HE1,2(), Yao DONG1, Yi ZHOU1,2   

  1. 1. School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2. Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2015-07-10 Revised:2015-11-18 Online:2016-06-30 Published:2016-07-04
  • Supported by:
    National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars, No.41425001;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41271130

摘要:

地区经济发展与其生产结构紧密相联。演化经济地理学认为,地区生产结构的演化受技术关联的影响,是一个路径依赖过程;一些研究也认为产业和区域政策等因素可能创造新路径,实现路径突破。本文沿用Hidalgo等定义的贸易产品空间方法,基于2001-2013年中国31个省区市的产品贸易数据,对中国出口产品空间(Product Space)的演化路径进行探讨。结果发现:中国四大区域—东部、中部、西部和东北地区的出口产品经历了较为明显的结构转型,不同区域的转型方向与路径各异。在2001-2007年间,四大区域的出口产品空间演化受到技术关联的显著影响,体现为路径依赖的过程。在2008-2013年间,东部、中部与东北地区的产品空间演化仍受技术关联的影响,而西部地区则更多受到产业和区域政策的推动,体现了路径突破的演化过程。本文研究启示,虽然中国区域生产结构演化一定程度上受制于现有区域能力、技术和知识积累,但是区域性制度政策创新可以突破原有路径,为区域发展创造新的机会。

关键词: 演化经济地理学, 产品空间, 技术关联, 产品贸易, 中国

Abstract:

Regional economic development is closely related to its productive structure, which evolves constantly. Economic geographers argue that the evolution of regional productive structure is path-dependent and stress the importance of technological relatedness. However, recent studies also suggest that regional and industrial policies may help create a new path of regional development. This study follows the method proposed by Hidalgo to measure technological relatedness and generate product space of Chinese exports using the trade data of China's 31 provinces during 2001-2013. The results show that China has experienced substantial structural transformation in export products, but there are significant regional differences. The coastal region has shifted from the labor intensive to capital and technology intensive products, the central and northeastern regions have first evolved from the resource intensive to labor intensive products, and then to capital and technology intensive products. The western region has transferred from the resource intensive to labor intensive structures. Econometric analysis reports that the evolution of export products of the four regions was significantly driven by technological relatedness during 2001-2007. Technological relatedness still played its role during 2008-2013 for the eastern, central and northeastern regions. But in the western region, regional and industrial policies support the structural transformation of export products. The significance of technological relatedness implies that the evolution of regional export products in China is path dependent. The role of regional policies suggest that institutions may create a new development path.

Key words: evolutionary economic geography, product space, technological relatedness, Chinese trade