中国对外贸易产品空间路径演化

doi:10.11821/dlxb201606006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

地区经济发展与其生产结构紧密相联。演化经济地理学认为,地区生产结构的演化受技术关联的影响,是一个路径依赖过程;一些研究也认为产业和区域政策等因素可能创造新路径,实现路径突破。本文沿用Hidalgo等定义的贸易产品空间方法,基于2001-2013年中国31个省区市的产品贸易数据,对中国出口产品空间（Product Space）的演化路径进行探讨。结果发现：中国四大区域—东部、中部、西部和东北地区的出口产品经历了较为明显的结构转型,不同区域的转型方向与路径各异。在2001-2007年间,四大区域的出口产品空间演化受到技术关联的显著影响,体现为路径依赖的过程。在2008-2013年间,东部、中部与东北地区的产品空间演化仍受技术关联的影响,而西部地区则更多受到产业和区域政策的推动,体现了路径突破的演化过程。本文研究启示,虽然中国区域生产结构演化一定程度上受制于现有区域能力、技术和知识积累,但是区域性制度政策创新可以突破原有路径,为区域发展创造新的机会。

关键词: 演化经济地理学, 产品空间, 技术关联, 产品贸易, 中国

Abstract:

Regional economic development is closely related to its productive structure, which evolves constantly. Economic geographers argue that the evolution of regional productive structure is path-dependent and stress the importance of technological relatedness. However, recent studies also suggest that regional and industrial policies may help create a new path of regional development. This study follows the method proposed by Hidalgo to measure technological relatedness and generate product space of Chinese exports using the trade data of China's 31 provinces during 2001-2013. The results show that China has experienced substantial structural transformation in export products, but there are significant regional differences. The coastal region has shifted from the labor intensive to capital and technology intensive products, the central and northeastern regions have first evolved from the resource intensive to labor intensive products, and then to capital and technology intensive products. The western region has transferred from the resource intensive to labor intensive structures. Econometric analysis reports that the evolution of export products of the four regions was significantly driven by technological relatedness during 2001-2007. Technological relatedness still played its role during 2008-2013 for the eastern, central and northeastern regions. But in the western region, regional and industrial policies support the structural transformation of export products. The significance of technological relatedness implies that the evolution of regional export products in China is path dependent. The role of regional policies suggest that institutions may create a new development path.

Key words: evolutionary economic geography, product space, technological relatedness, Chinese trade

贺灿飞, 董瑶, 周沂. 中国对外贸易产品空间路径演化[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(6): 969-983.

Canfei HE, Yao DONG, Yi ZHOU. Evolution of export product space in China: Path-dependent or path-breaking?[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(6): 969-983.

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名称	平均复杂度	主要分属	名称	平均复杂度	主要分属
动植物产品	0.115	下部	鞋帽伞杖等制品及零件	0.145	左部
食品饮料及烟酒	0.138	下部	陶瓷与玻璃产品	0.118	左部
矿产品	0.185	上部	金属制品	0.150	左部、下部
化工及相关产品	0.120	下部	一般机械器具及零件	0.194	下部、上部
塑料及橡胶制品	0.124	左部	发电机、电器与通讯工具	0.222	上部
皮具	0.139	左部	交通工具	0.181	上部
木与木制品	0.156	下部	光学、照相、电影仪器与设备	0.224	上部
木浆与纸制品	0.189	左部	家具、灯具、玩具等杂项制品	0.156	左部
纺织原料及纺织制品	0.137	左部、下部

东部	中部	西部	东北
化工及相关产品(53)	化工及相关产品(42)	金属制品(56)	矿产品(33)
金属制品(48)	矿产品(38)	化工及相关产品(54)	金属制品(31)
矿产品(46)	纺织原料与制品(34)	纺织原料与制品(53)	化工及相关产品(29)
电器与通讯工具(40)	金属制品(30)	动植物相关产品(40)	交通工具(25)
动植物相关产品(39)	电器与通讯工具(28)	食品饮料及烟酒(37)	纺织原料与制品(23)
交通工具(38)	一般机械器具(26)	一般机械器具(33)	动植物相关产品(19)
一般机械器具(35)	动植物相关产品(23)	矿产品(32)	一般机械器具(16)
纺织原料与制品(28)	木浆与纸制品(19)	家具等杂项制品(28)	电器与通讯工具(13)

	总体	东部	中部	西部	东北
原始优势	1.50^***	1.51^***	1.54^***	1.52^***	1.55^***
出口产品技术关联ETR	5.22^***	4.83^***	3.62^***	4.27^***	3.75^***
东部×ETR		0.02
中部×ETR			0.21^***
西部×ETR				0.13^***
东北×ETR					0.06^**
产品类别	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
区域	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
年份	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
N	155620	155620	155620	155620	155620
虚拟判定系数	0.357	0.355	0.349	0.352	0.349
对数似然函数值	-50031	-50143	-50622	-50397	-50641

	总体	东部	中部	西部	东北
原始优势	1.77^***	1.77^***	1.77^***	1.76^***	1.77^***
进口产品技术关联ITR	1.51^***	2.62^***	1.43^***	0.94^***	1.41^***
东部×ITR		-0.19^***
中部×ITR			0.22^***
西部×ITR				0.30^***
东北×ITR					-0.05 ^***
产品类别	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
区域	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
年份	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
N	155620	155620	155620	155620	155620
虚拟判定系数	0.314	0.315	0.314	0.315	0.314
对数似然函数值	-53330	-53290	-53377	-53250	-53392

	总体	东部	中部	西部	东北
原始优势	1.60^***	1.61^***	1.63^***	1.60^***	1.63^***
出口产品技术关联ETR	3.33^***	1.94^***	2.43^***	5.05^***	2.46^***
东部×ETR		0.41^***
中部×ED			0.19^***
西部×ETR				-0.43^***
东北×ETR					0.28^***
产品类别	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
区域	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
年份	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
N	116715	116715	116715	116715	116715
虚拟判定系数	0.337	0.343	0.335	0.347	0.335
对数似然函数值	-41144	-40747	-41303	-40540	-41292