中国地缘经济联系的时空演化特征及其内部机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb201606005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着冷战结束以及全球化深入发展,国家之间经济相互依存明显加强,地缘政治在内容和形式上从以安全为主的高政治向以经济为主的低政治转变,地缘经济成为研究焦点。本文运用空间探索性方法、碎化指数和显性比较优势指数等工具,揭示中国在全球经济空间中地缘经济联系的演化特征;借助灰色关联度分析方法探索中国地缘经济联系演化的内部机制。结论为：① 中国地缘经济联系经历了“孕育—萌芽—兴起—繁荣”四个阶段,与经济发展以及产业结构调整存在显著的相关性;② 中国的优势部门仍以劳动密集型产业为主,逐步形成资金和技术密集型产业的竞争优势,初级产品劣势日益显现;③ 中国经济权力空间的异质化特征明显,地缘经济联系呈现大国集聚效应和地理临近效应。随着时间推移,地缘经济联系空间趋于均质化,经济权力半径不断向外围拓展,不仅同美日欧等发达国家保持稳定的地缘经济联系,与非洲、拉丁美洲等发展中国家和地区的联系也不断加强;④ 资本禀赋、科技禀赋和人力禀赋是中国地缘经济联系时空演化的主要内在动力,资本禀赋是中国地缘经济发展的核心驱动力,科技禀赋是重要的推动力,人力禀赋是主要的基础优势。

关键词: 地缘经济, 时空演化, 要素禀赋, 内部机制, 探索性空间数据分析, 中国

Abstract:

The interdependence of economics among countries has been distinctly enhanced due to the end of the Cold War and the intensification of globalization. In terms of its content and form, geo-politics has shifted from a "high political area", which focuses on safety, to a "low political area", which emphasizes economics, making geo-economics the focus of the researches. Using tools including Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), Fragmentation Index and Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, this paper revealed China's evolutionary characteristics of geo-economic connections at the global scale, and explored its internal mechanism by grey relational analysis. The results show: (1) China's geo-economic connections have undergone 4 periods of "Inoculating - Sprouting - Rising - Flourishing", which were significantly correlated to economic development and the industrial restructuring. (2) Labor-intensive industry is currently dominant in China, but capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries are gradually developing, and the disadvantages of primary goods is prominent. (3) China's economic power is heterogeneous across space. The geo-economic connections could be identified as global powers' agglomeration and geographical proximity, but it became homogeneous through time and the diameter of economic power has continuously expanded. China has not only maintained stable geo-economic connections with developed countries like the United States of America, Japan and some European countries, but also strengthened connections with developing countries in Africa and South America. (4) Capital, technology and labor endowments are the main internal driving forces behind the spatial-temporal evolution of China's geo-economic connections, among which capital endowment is the key driving force, technology endowment is the important impetus and labor endowment is the fundamental advantage.

Key words: geo-economics, spatial-temporal evolution, production endowment, internal mechanism, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), China

杨文龙, 杜德斌, 刘承良, 马亚华. 中国地缘经济联系的时空演化特征及其内部机制[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(6): 956-969.

Wenlong YANG, Debin DU, Chengliang LIU, Yahua MA. Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and internal mechanism of geo-economic connections of China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(6): 956-969.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

表2

图3

表3

图4

图5

表4

参考文献 31

[1]	Lu Dadao, Du Debin.Some thoughts on the strengthening of geo-political and geo-economic studies. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(6): 723-727.
	[陆大道, 杜德斌. 关于加强地缘政治地缘经济研究的思考. 地理学报, 2013, 68(6): 723-727.]
[2]	Du Debin, Duan Dezhong, Liu Chengliang, et al.Progress of geopolitics of Chinese geography since 1990. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(2): 199-212. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201502001
	[杜德斌, 段德忠, 刘承良, 等. 1990年以来中国地理学之地缘政治学研究进展. 地理研究, 2015, 34(2): 199-212.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201502001
[3]	Geoffrey Parker.Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century. London: Croom Helm, 1985.
	[杰弗里·帕克. 李亦鸣, 等, 译. 二十世纪的西方地理政治思想. 北京: 解放军出版社, 1992.]
[4]	Wang Enyong.Geopolitics. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 1998: 173-294.
	[王恩涌. 地缘政治学. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 1998: 173-294.]
[5]	Sa Benwang.Emerging "Geo-economic". World Affairs, 1995(5): 2-4.
	[萨本望. 新兴的“地缘经济学”. 世界知识, 1995(5): 2-4.]
[6]	Huang Renwei.Geo-theory evolution and China's road of peaceful development. Contemporary International Relations, 2010(S1): 18-25.
	[黄仁伟. 地缘理论演变与中国和平发展道路. 现代国际关系, 2010(S1): 18-25.]
[7]	Li Zheng, Chen Cai, Xiong Liran.An analysis on the theory origin and development vein of geo-economics abroad. World Regional Studies, 2014, 24(1): 10-18. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2014.01.002
	[李正, 陈才, 熊理然. 欧美地缘经济理论发展脉络及其内涵特征探析. 世界地理研究, 2014, 24(1): 10-18.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2014.01.002
[8]	Luttwak E N.From geopolitics to geo-economics: Logic of conflict, grammar of commerce. The National Interest, 1990(20): 17-23.
[9]	O' Loughlin J, Anselin L. Geo-economic competition and trade bloc formation: United States, German, and Japanese exports, 1968-1992. Economic Geography, 1996: 131-160. doi: 10.2307/144263
[10]	Gibb R, Michalak W.Regionalism in the World Economy. Area, 1996: 446-458. doi: 10.1017/S095410209600048X
[11]	Lee C.Impact of the East Asian financial crisis on the Asia-Pacific regional order: A geo-economic perspective. Issues & Studies, 1999, 35(4): 109-132. doi: 10.11947/j.AGCS.2015.20130566
[12]	Ding Zhigang.The special geostrategy perspective of emerging geo-economy: New trend of geo-economic strategy for the big powers. International Forum, 2001, 3(2): 21-26.
	[丁志刚. 新兴地缘经济学独特的地缘战略视角: 大国地缘经济战略争夺的新态势. 国际论坛, 2001, 3(2): 21-26.]
[13]	Zhou Xiaonan.The geopolitics and geo-economic research approaches comparison. Journal of Changchun University of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2005, 17(4): 39-41. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-1374.2005.04.016
	[周骁男. 地缘政治与地缘经济的研究路径比较. 长春工业大学学报(社会科学版), 2005, 17(4): 39-41.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-1374.2005.04.016
[14]	Zhou Xiaonan, Chen Cai.On the standard research paradigm of geopolitics and geo-economics. Journal of Northeast Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2007(2): 76-80.
	[周骁男, 陈才. 论地缘政治与地缘经济的研究范式. 东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版), 2007(2): 76-80.]
[15]	Cheng Chaoze.The conception of Chinese economic cooperation circle with neighboring countries: The road to the 21st century. Asia-Pacific Economic Review, 1993(5): 21-28.
	[程超泽. 中国与周边国家经济协作圈的构想: 走向21世纪的可由之路. 亚太经济, 1993(5): 21-28.]
[16]	Mao Hanying.Geopolitical and geo-economic situation in the surrounding areas and China's strategies. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(3): 289-302. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.03.001
	[毛汉英. 中国周边地缘政治与地缘经济格局和对策. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(3): 289-302.] doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.03.001
[17]	Cheng Yonglin.CAFTA and Chinese geo-economic interest research. Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology, 2004, 4(1): 6-10. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1254.2004.01.002
	[程永林. 中国—东盟自由贸易区与我国的地缘经济利益研究. 昆明理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2004, 4(1): 6-10.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1254.2004.01.002
[18]	Guo Huancheng, Zhang Jihong.International geo-economic sector and its inherent mechanism. Economic Geography, 1994, 14(2): 1-5.
	[郭焕成, 张继宏. 国际地缘经济板块及其内在机制研究. 经济地理, 1994, 14(2): 1-5.]
[19]	Du Debin, Ma Yahua.Geography of containment and anti-containment of China's peaceful rise. World Regional Studies, 2012, 21(1): 1-16.
	[杜德斌, 马亚华. 中国崛起的国际地缘战略研究. 世界地理研究, 2012, 21(1): 1-16.]
[20]	Wong J.A China-centric economic order in East Asia. Asia Pacific Business Review, 2013, 19(2): 286-296. doi: 10.1080/13602381.2012.739358
[21]	He Canfei, Liang Jinshe.Regional differences of foreign direct investment in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1999, 54(2): 97-105. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.1999.02.001
	[贺灿飞, 梁进社. 中国外商直接投资的区域分异及其变化. 地理学报, 1999, 54(2): 97-105.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.1999.02.001
[22]	Lim K F.On China's growing geo-economic influence and the evolution of variegated capitalism. Geoforum, 2010, 41(5): 677-688. doi: 10.1016/j.geoforum.2010.04.003
[23]	Wang Zheng, Deng Feng, Yang Yunyan.A connection with spatial interaction and diffusion. Geographical Research, 1991, 10(1): 48-55.
	[王铮, 邓峰, 杨云彦. 人口扩散与空间相互作用的联系. 地理研究, 1991, 10(1): 48-55.]
[24]	Song Hong, Chen Xiaoling.Application of spatial autocorrelation analysis to the spatial pattern of inbound tourism increase in China. World Regional Studies, 2006, 15(1): 99-106. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2006.01.017
	[宋鸿, 陈晓玲. 运用空间自相关分析中国入境旅游增长空间格局. 世界地理研究, 2006, 15(1): 99-106.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2006.01.017
[25]	Shi Yajuan, Zhu Yongbin, Feng Dexian, et al.Polycentric network development patterns of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(12): 1430-1438.
	[史雅娟, 朱永彬, 冯德显, 等. 中原城市群多中心网络式空间发展模式研究. 地理科学, 2012, 32(12): 1430-1438.]
[26]	Shen Zhenyao, Yang Zhifeng.Gray associate analysis method in screening of index system. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2002, 32(5): 728-732. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0984.2002.05.006
	[沈珍瑶, 杨志峰. 灰关联分析方法用于指标体系的筛选. 数学的实践与认识, 2002, 32(5): 728-732.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0984.2002.05.006
[27]	Deng Jülong. Grey Theory.Wuhan: Huazhong University of Science & Technology Press, 2002: 35-76.
	[邓聚龙. 灰理论基础. 武汉: 华中科技大学出版社, 2002: 35-76.]
[28]	Balassa Bela.Trade liberalization and revealed comparative advantage. Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, 1965, 33: 99-123. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x
[29]	Balassa Bela. Comparative Advantage, Trade Policy and Economic Development. Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1989: 41-62.
[30]	Das D K.Changing comparative advantage and the changing composition of Asian exports. World Economy, 1998, 21(1): 121-140. doi: 10.1111/1467-9701.00122
[31]	Pan Zhongqi, Huang Renwei.China's geo-cultural strategy. Contemporary International Relations, 2008(1): 44-49.
	[潘忠岐, 黄仁伟. 中国的地缘文化战略. 现代国际关系, 2008(1): 44-49.]

年份	初级产品			劳动密集型			资本和技术密集型
年份	SITC0+SITC1		SITC2+SITC4	SITC3	SITC6	SITC8	SITC5	SITC7	SITC9
2001	0.770	0.478	0.321	1.208	2.593		0.520	0.885	0.056
2002	0.715	0.404	0.273	1.178	2.472		0.456	0.972	0.055
2003	0.644	0.335	0.250	1.153	2.330		0.423	1.091	0.056
2004	0.548	0.279	0.217	1.208	2.236		0.417	1.168	0.049
2005	0.521	0.281	0.167	1.230	2.239		0.444	1.234	0.063
2006	0.489	0.224	0.125	1.284	2.242		0.446	1.270	0.070
2007	0.450	0.191	0.113	1.262	2.264		0.471	1.315	0.045
2008	0.397	0.199	0.125	1.346	2.307		0.532	1.399	0.029
2009	0.401	0.175	0.118	1.218	2.180		0.449	1.46	0.026
2010	0.420	0.162	0.109	1.222	2.220		0.499	1.467	0.019
2011	0.428	0.164	0.095	1.301	2.324		0.558	1.494	0.026
2012	0.409	0.155	0.081	1.324	2.430		0.524	1.477	0.015

	2001年	2002年	2003年	2004年	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	200年9	2010年	2011年	2012年
Moran's I	0.210	0.214	0.220	0.230	0.224	0.230	0.230	0.225	0.218	0.216	0.219	0.219
Z值	8.103	8.155	8.286	8.541	8.343	8.479	8.479	8.206	8.022	7.880	7.874	7.927
P值	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

	2001年	2002年	2003年	2004年	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年
出口碎化指数	7.22	7.22	7.40	7.50	7.62	7.87	8.10	8.39	8.43	8.44	8.51	8.56
进口碎化指数	6.68	6.65	6.78	6.96	7.00	7.05	7.15	7.31	7.37	7.51	7.68	7.80
进出口碎化指数	7.36	7.34	7.50	7.64	7.76	7.97	8.14	8.39	8.41	8.47	8.58	8.65
出口均匀度指数	0.541	0.548	0.560	0.572	0.586	0.600	0.624	0.644	0.639	0.649	0.654	0.659
进口均匀度指数	0.570	0.553	0.557	0.579	0.591	0.594	0.612	0.639	0.644	0.652	0.670	0.676
进出口均匀度指数	0.571	0.567	0.576	0.591	0.606	0.617	0.637	0.661	0.660	0.668	0.680	0.684

系统类型	指标类型	指标	关联度
资本禀赋	投资水平	投资总额(亿元)	0.752
		对外直接投资	0.593
		利用外资	0.683
	生产水平	人均国内生产总值	0.849
	生产水平	GDP(亿元)	0.862
	消费水平	居民消费水平(元)	0.793
结构禀赋	工业发展水平	第二产业产值占GDP比重	0.564
	工业发展水平	工业产值占第二产业比值	0.557
	第三产业发展水平	第三产业产值占GDP比重	0.579
	就业结构	第二产业就业人口比	0.629
	就业结构	第三产业就业人口比	0.598
人力禀赋	就业水平	就业人员合计(万人)	0.568
	就业水平	就业人口占总人口比重	0.560
	劳动力水平	年平均工资	0.823
	劳动力水平	就业人员高中及高中以上学历构成比	0.599
科技禀赋	科技投入	研究与试验发展折合全时人员(万人)	0.774
	科技投入	研究与试验发展经费支出(亿元)	0.767
	科技产出	技术市场成交额(亿元)	0.822
		科技成果登记数	0.641
		国外主要检索工具收录中国论文总数	0.666