蓄意攻击下全球集装箱海运网络脆弱性变化

doi:10.11821/dlxb201602009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究近年来全球集装箱海运网络脆弱性的变化趋势,提出了研究网络脆弱性变化度的分析思路和量化方法.基于2004和2014年两个年度的世界主要集装箱班轮公司航线分布数据,将相关港口按节点度大小排序后以1%~10%的比例逐步删除,选择删除前后的网络平均度,网络聚类系数,网络孤立节点比例,网络平均距离和网络效率等特征值的变化率作为量化指标;提出了网络压力测试方法,由此求出各特征值对网络脆弱性的影响权重及贡献值,进而得到了在设定攻击规模内集装箱海运网络脆弱性变化的量化值.研究结果表明:在蓄意攻击下,近10年的全球集装箱海运网络的脆弱性呈变差趋势;当攻击规模为整体网络的10%以内时,网络脆弱性的变差幅度约为6.1%.研究成果对于深化港口地理学研究具有重要意义,其分析思路和方法对其他领域的网络脆弱性变化趋势研究也可提供借鉴.

关键词: 集装箱, 海运, 网络, 蓄意攻击, 脆弱性

Abstract:

To explore the current trend of the global container shipping network vulnerability, the analytical approach and quantitative methods were put forward for researching the change rate of the network vulnerability. We chose the routes distribution data from the world's main container liner companies in 2004 and 2014 as the study foundation. Sorted by the node degrees, the ports were gradually removed at a proportion from 1% to 10%. The quantitative foundation was the change rates of the eigenvalues before and after node removal, including the eigenvalues of network average degree, network clustering coefficient, network isolated-node proportion, network average shortest-path length and network efficiency. With the proposed pressure test, we calculated the weights and the values that each network eigenvalue has influence on the network vulnerability. Then we obtained the values of the change on the container shipping network vulnerability within the range of setting attack strength. The result shows that the vulnerability of the global container shipping network has the trend of becoming weaker in recent 10 years under intentional attack. When the scale of attack is less than 10% of the whole network, the vulnerability of the container shipping network has weakened by about 6.1%. The research conclusion in this paper has an important significance for deepening the research of port geography, and the analytical approach and method also provide reference to network characteristics analysis in other fields.

Key words: container, shipping, network, intentional attack, vulnerability

王诺, 董玲玲, 吴暖, 颜华锟. 蓄意攻击下全球集装箱海运网络脆弱性变化[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(2): 293.

Nuo WANG, Lingling DONG, Nuan WU, Huakun YAN. The change of global container shipping network vulnerability under intentional attack[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(2): 293-.

图/表 10

图1

图2

表1

图3

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

2004年与2014年各网络特征值平均变化率(%)

特征值指标	$U s ˉ 2004$	$U s ˉ 2014$	$Δ U s ˉ$
网络平均度	39.38	45.69	6.31
网络聚类系数	32.29	39.99	7.70
网络孤立节点比例	7.79	9.37	1.58
网络平均距离	24.28	31.16	6.87
网络效率	31.44	40.68	9.24

表6

表7

蓄意攻击下集装箱海运网络脆弱性变化度分析

特征值指标	网络平均度	网络聚类系数	网络孤立节点比例	网络平均距离	网络效率	合计
2004年半衰度G_s(%)	7.78	11.75	34.45	14.62	10.67	-
2014年半衰度G_s(%)	5.64	8.82	30.59	9.80	7.29	-
敏感系数O_s	0.73	0.75	0.89	0.67	0.68	3.72
影响权重Q_s	0.20	0.20	0.24	0.18	0.18	1
变化率均值差 $Δ U ? s$ (%)	6.31	7.70	1.58	6.87	9.24	-
网络脆弱性变化度F(%)	1.23	1.56	0.38	1.24	1.70	6.10

表7

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蓄意攻击比例h(%)	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2004年网络平均度K	9.21	7.94	7.11	6.49	6.00	5.52	5.15	4.86	4.53	4.21	4.01
2014年网络平均度K	8.61	7.12	6.12	5.56	5.05	4.51	4.19	3.92	3.64	3.40	3.23
2004年变化率ΔK(%)	-	13.78	22.82	29.50	34.89	40.02	44.07	47.19	50.79	54.24	56.47
2014年变化率ΔK(%)	-	17.29	28.86	35.38	41.27	47.57	51.34	54.50	57.70	60.53	62.43

蓄意攻击比例h(%)	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2004年网络聚类系数C	0.40	0.34	0.32	0.31	0.29	0.27	0.26	0.25	0.23	0.21	0.21
2014年网络聚类系数C	0.38	0.31	0.27	0.26	0.24	0.23	0.22	0.21	0.20	0.19	0.17
2004年变化率ΔC(%)	-	14.30	20.55	22.55	26.80	32.25	33.55	36.02	42.46	46.42	47.98
2014年变化率ΔC(%)	-	18.84	29.22	32.68	37.00	40.58	43.16	45.11	48.49	50.33	54.50

蓄意攻击比例h(%)	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2004年比例ΔN(%)	0.00	1.79	3.18	4.17	5.96	7.55	8.95	9.94	10.93	12.13	13.32
2014年比例ΔN(%)	0.00	1.42	3.31	4.73	6.94	8.83	11.04	12.46	13.72	14.83	16.40

蓄意攻击比例h(%)	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2004年网络平均距离L	3.34	3.70	3.90	4.06	4.23	4.43	4.57	4.70	4.87	5.04	5.09
2014年网络平均距离L	3.41	3.78	4.04	4.25	4.48	4.94	5.16	5.54	5.85	6.33	6.95
2004年变化率ΔL(%)	-	9.80	14.42	17.69	21.00	24.56	26.91	28.90	31.37	33.77	34.40
2004年变化率ΔL(%)	-	9.95	15.54	19.79	23.94	30.98	34.01	38.51	41.77	46.14	50.94

蓄意攻击比例h(%)	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2004年网络效率I	0.33	0.29	0.27	0.26	0.24	0.23	0.21	0.21	0.20	0.19	0.17
2014年网络效率I	0.32	0.27	0.25	0.23	0.21	0.19	0.18	0.16	0.16	0.14	0.13
2004年变化率ΔI(%)	-	12.63	18.85	21.90	26.41	30.95	35.52	37.32	40.34	42.83	47.68
2014年变化率ΔI(%)	-	15.43	23.48	29.09	34.42	40.90	45.10	49.18	51.97	56.85	60.40