地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (2): 179-.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201602001

• 人口与政治地理 •    下一篇

胡焕庸线两侧的人口分布与城镇化格局趋势----尝试回答李克强总理之问

陈明星1(), 李扬2, 龚颖华1,3, 陆大道1, 张华4()   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院中国现代化研究中心,北京 100190
    3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    4. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-20 修回日期:2015-10-26 出版日期:2016-02-15 发布日期:2016-03-31
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:陈明星(1982-), 男, 安徽巢湖人, 博士, 副研究员, 研究方向为城市化与区域发展.E-mail: chenmx@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41001080, 41430636, 41530634);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所秉维优秀人才基金项目

The population distribution and trend of urbanization pattern on two sides of Hu Huanyong population line: A tentative response to Premier Li Keqiang

Mingxing CHEN1(), Yang LI2, Yinghua GONG1,3, Dadao LU1, Hua ZHANG4()   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. China Center for Modernization Research, CAS, Beijing 100190, China
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    4. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2015-04-20 Revised:2015-10-26 Online:2016-02-15 Published:2016-03-31
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41001080, No.41430636, No.41530634;Programme of Bingwe Excellent Young Scientists of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS

摘要:

2014年11月底,李克强总理在国家博物馆参观人居科学研究展时,向社会和科学界提出了关于"胡焕庸线"的问题,很多媒体称之为"总理之问","胡焕庸线"也因此成为时下受到高度关注的一个热词,就此开展了热烈讨论并提出了截然不同的见解.针对这样的认识困境,本文首先梳理了胡焕庸线的由来,是由著名人口地理学家胡焕庸先生于1935年提出,提出的背景是当时对国内人口是否过剩的大讨论.基于"一普","五普"和"六普"等人口数据和ArcGIS平台,分析了胡焕庸线东南半壁和西北半壁的人口规模,比重和密度变化,数据显示人口城镇化和人口迁移并没有改变胡焕庸线确定的人口分布格局.据此提出胡焕庸线揭示的人口东密西疏格局在较长时期不会发生根本性变化,城市群主要位于胡焕庸线东南半壁的格局在较长时期也不会发生变化,胡焕庸线不可破的原因是由气候等综合自然地理条件决定的.同时,本文认为总理关心的核心问题是"有解"的,通过积极的政策引导和合理的空间组织,西部地区完全可以实现更高水平的现代化和更好质量的城镇化,中部亦然.

关键词: 胡焕庸线, 总理之问, 人口分布, 城镇化, 格局, 趋势

Abstract:

In November, 2014, Premier Li Keqiang raised a problem about Hu Huanyong population line (hereinafter referred to as "Hu line"), when visiting the exhibition of sciences of human settlements in National Museum of China, which was called "Premier's Question" by the press. Hence, Hu line has become a highlight currently, and aroused great controversy and different views. Aiming at such dilemma of cognition, this paper gives a general review of the origins of Hu line, which was put forward by the famous population geographer Hu Huanyong in 1935, under the background of a debate on the surplus of domestic population. Based on population census data and GIS platform, the paper analyzes the change of population scale, proportion and density in both southeast and northwest sides of Hu line. The results indicate that the population urbanization and migration do not change the pattern of population distribution determined by Hu line. On such basis, the pattern that the population density of southeast part is large, while that of northwest part is relatively small will not radically change over a longer period, and the pattern that urban agglomeration is mainly located in southeast part as well. The long-term existence of Hu line depends on integrated physical geographical conditions, like climate. At the meantime, this paper argues that the core issue of the Premier's concern is solvable, by positive policy guidance and reasonable spatial organization. It is definitely promising for western China to realize a higher level of modernization and a better quality of urbanization, and central region as well.

Key words: Hu Huanyong population line, the Premier's doubt, population distribution, urbanization, pattern, trend