地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (10): 1622-1631.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201510007
收稿日期:
2015-01-04
修回日期:
2015-06-01
出版日期:
2015-10-20
发布日期:
2015-10-20
作者简介:
作者简介:李仕冀(1988-), 男, 河北衡水人, 博士, 主要从事土地利用/覆被变化研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Shiji LI1,2(), Xiubin LI1, Minghong TAN1(
)
Received:
2015-01-04
Revised:
2015-06-01
Online:
2015-10-20
Published:
2015-10-20
Supported by:
摘要:
生态脆弱地区的生态环境状况改善和治理一直是各级政府部门和学者关注的焦点问题。过去10余年,中国城镇化进程发展迅速,生态脆弱地区乡村劳动力大量迁出。那么劳动力人口迁出会在多大程度上影响脆弱地区植被覆被状况的变化呢?本研究利用2000-2010年的NDVI数据、气象观测数据和社会经济数据,采用趋势线分析、显著性检验和多元回归分析等方法,对内蒙古地区植被覆被状况的变化进行了分析,并在县级尺度上定量评估了乡村劳动力人口迁移对区域植被覆被状况的影响。结果表明:① 2000-2010年,内蒙古自治区植被覆被总体呈上升趋势,其中超过28%的地区植被覆被状况显著改善,只有约2%的地区存在较强的退化趋势;② 植被覆被显著退化的地区呈条带状分布于内蒙古自治区中部农牧交错带北部边缘;植被覆被显著改善的地区主要位于内蒙古自治区的东南部与西部地区;③ 2000-2010年,农业劳动力对植被覆被状况的影响已经超过了气候等自然因素的作用,农业劳动力迁出对植被覆被状况提高有显著的促进作用。
李仕冀, 李秀彬, 谈明洪. 乡村人口迁出对生态脆弱地区植被覆被的影响——以内蒙古自治区为例[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(10): 1622-1631.
Shiji LI, Xiubin LI, Minghong TAN. Impacts of rural-urban migration on vegetation cover in ecologically fragile areas: Taking Inner Mongolia as a case[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(10): 1622-1631.
表2
内蒙古植被覆被变化的解释模型"
模型 | 非标准化系数 | 标准化系数 | t检验 | Sig. | 共线性统计量 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数项 | 标准误差 | 容差 | 方差膨胀因子 | ||||
1 Adjusted R2: 0.263 | |||||||
(常量) | 0.006 | 0.002 | 2.735 | 0.008 | |||
Slope降水 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.359 | 2.545 | 0.014** | 0.629 | 1.590 |
Slope均温 | -0.343 | 0.169 | -0.273 | -2.028 | 0.048** | 0.687 | 1.455 |
农业劳动力变率 | -0.010 | 0.003 | -0.447 | -3.134 | 0.003*** | 0.613 | 1.631 |
劳均年龄变率 | -0.031 | 0.019 | -0.192 | -1.660 | 0.103 | 0.930 | 1.075 |
劳均耕地规模变率 | -0.002 | 0.001 | -0.265 | -2.151 | 0.036** | 0.824 | 1.214 |
劳均饲养牲畜变率 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.112 | 0.904 | 0.370 | 0.813 | 1.230 |
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