天津自由贸易试验区发展演化动力机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb201510002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

自由经济区作为经济全球化和区域经济一体化的产物,近年来已成为促进各国,尤其是发展中国家经济发展的增长极、城市化的驱动力以及制度创新的重要平台。在中国,为应对全球化与世界贸易格局的新挑战,增强深化改革开放新动力,实施国家“一带一路”和京津冀一体化发展战略,贸易型自由经济区如自由贸易区的建设显得尤为迫切。目前一些专家学者对自由经济区发展规律与影响因素进行了定性分析与归纳,但运用定量研究方法从动力机制角度探讨其演化规律的研究还不多见。因此,本文在借鉴国内外关于自由经济区理论及案例研究基础上,应用访谈、问卷等形式采集数据,综合运用层次分析和模糊评价分析方法,选用政策、市场、环境、产业、要素、效益和创新驱动力7个要素,建立了自由经济区发展演化动力机制评价模型和指标体系;最后,运用该模型,结合天津滨海新区实际情况,系统分析了影响天津自由贸易试验区发展演化主要动力因子及动力机制,从而预测未来天津自由贸易试验区发展演化模式;最后,探讨了该研究对中国其他自由贸易试验区发展与演化的意义。本文对中国未来自由经济区的转型与发展以及理论研究具有参考价值。

关键词: 自由经济区, 自由贸易区, 动力机制, 模糊综合评价, 天津滨海新区

Abstract:

In recent years, the Free Economic Zones (FEZs), as a product of economic globalization and regional economic integration, have become the growth poles of economic development in developing countries, the motivations of urbanization and a significant stage for the reforms of related institutions. In China, there is an urgent need to construct free trade zones in order to meet the new challenges of globalization and international trade structure, to strengthen the reform motivation, and to carry out the national strategies of One Belt and One Road and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration. At present, some experts and scholars scrutinize the rules and factors contributing to FEZs' development based on the qualitative analysis. However, they are still confronted with less research on evolution law in FEZs on account of quantitative research methods. Therefore, this paper applies methodologies such as interview, and questionnaire to collect data based on domestic and overseas theories and case studies about FEZs. It also adopts the analysis of hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method, selects seven elements: policies, markets, environments, industries, inputs, benefits and innovativeness, and establishes the index system and evaluation model of FEZs' development evolution mechanism. Finally, with the aid of the model and combined with the actual situation of Tianjin Binhai New Area, the paper analyzes the main driving forces of Tianjin Pilot Free Trade Zone's development dynamic mechanism. This study is an asset to the transformation and development of the FEZs in China as well as further theoretical research in the future.

Key words: Free Economic Zone, Free Trade Zone, dynamic mechanism, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Tianjin Binhai New Area

孟广文, 王洪玲, 杨爽. 天津自由贸易试验区发展演化动力机制[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(10): 1552-1565.

Guangwen MENG, Hongling WANG, Shuang YANG. Study on evolution and dynamic mechanism of Tianjin Pilot Free Trade Zone[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(10): 1552-1565.

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目标层	准则层	指标层
发展外力 X₁	政策驱动力X₁₁	税收优惠X₁₁₁
		信贷优惠措施X₁₁₂
		开放内销市场优惠X₁₁₃
	市场驱动力X₁₂	吸引外商投资能力X₁₂₁
		实际利用外资X₁₂₂
		市场结构完善度X₁₂₃
发展内力 X₂	环境驱动力X₁₃	资源禀赋条件X₁₃₁
		区位优势度X₁₃₂
		历史文化传统X₁₃₃
		法制化程度X₁₃₄
	要素驱动力X₂₁	劳动力技能与素质X₂₁₁
		基础设施投入X₂₁₂
		土地成本X₂₁₃
		资本投入X₂₁₄
	产业驱动力X₂₂	区内产业专业化程度X₂₂₁
		新兴产业企业生产值X₂₂₂
		区内产业布局完善程度X₂₂₃
		出口导向加工制造业产值X₂₂₄
	效益驱动力X₂₃	区内税收收入水平X₂₃₁
		进出口贸易占所在省(区市)贸易进出口额比重X₂₃₂
		入区企业解决就业能力X₂₃₃
		投资利润率X₂₃₄
		创汇额X₂₃₅
	创新驱动力X₂₄	技术创新的产出及效益X₂₄₁
		区内高新技术企业数量X₂₄₂
		经济行政管理及海关监管制度创新程度X₂₄₃

评估指标	隶属度(%)	保留否	评估指标	隶属度(%)	保留否
税收优惠X₁₁₁	78.6	√	资本投入X₂₁₄	70.3	√
信贷优惠措施X₁₁₂	64.3	√	区内产业专业化程度X₂₂₁	96.4	√
开放内销市场的优惠政策X₁₁₃	43.2	×	新兴产业企业生产值X₂₂₂	82.5	√
吸引外商投资能力X₁₂₁	85.3	√	区内产业布局完善程度X₂₂₃	62.5	√
实际利用外资X₁₂₂	94.6	√	出口导向加工制造业产值X₂₂₄	60.6	√
市场结构完善度X₁₂₃	35.8	×	区内税收收入水平X₂₃₁	91.4	√
资源禀赋条件X₁₃₁	46.8	×	进出口贸易占所在省(区市)贸易进出口额比重X₂₃₂	75.8	√
区位优势度X₁₃₂	88.7	√	入区企业解决就业能力X₂₃₃	60.5	√
历史文化传统X₁₃₃	23.6	×	投资利润率X₂₃₄	38.5	×
法制化程度X₁₃₄	79.5	√	创汇额X₂₃₅	73.4	√
劳动力技能与素质X₂₁₁	66.9	√	技术创新的产出及效益X₂₄₁	87.4	√
基础设施投入X₂₁₂	59.4	√	区内高新技术企业数量X₂₄₂	40.8	×
土地成本X₂₁₃	74.2	√	行政管理及海关监管制度创新程度X₂₄₃	86.5	√

一级指标	二级指标及权重			三级指标及相对权重
发展外力 X₁	政策驱动力X₁₁ (0.1813)			税收优惠X₁₁₁ (0.7500)
	政策驱动力X₁₁ (0.1813)			信贷优惠措施X₁₁₂ (0.2500)
	市场驱动力X₁₂ (0.0827)			吸引外商投资能力X₁₂₁ (0.8000)
	市场驱动力X₁₂ (0.0827)			实际利用外资X₁₂₂ (0.2000)
	环境驱动力X₁₃ (0.0678)			区位优势度X₁₃₁ (0.7500)
	环境驱动力X₁₃ (0.0678)			法制化程度X₁₃₂ (0.2500)
	要素驱动力X₂₁ (0.1271)			劳动力技能与素质X₂₁₁ (0.2927)
				基础设施投入X₂₁₂ (0.0935)
				土地成本X₂₁₃ (0.1421)
				资本投入X₂₁₄ (0.4717)
发展内力 X₂	产业驱动力X₂₂ (0.2001)			区内产业专业化程度X₂₂₁ (0.1894)
				新兴产业企业生产值X₂₂₂ (0.0680)
				区内产业布局完善程度X₂₂₃ (0.1762)
				出口导向加工制造业产值X₂₂₄ (0.5664)
	效益驱动力X₂₃ (0.2085) 创新驱动力X₂₄ (0.1324)			区内税收收入水平X₂₃₁ (0.1545)
				进出口贸易占所在省(区市)贸易进出口额比重X₂₃₂ (0.3182)
				入区企业解决就业能力X₂₃₃ (0.0772)
				创汇额X₂₃₄ (0.4500)
				技术创新的产出及效益X₂₄₁ (0.2500)
				行政管理及海关监管制度创新程度X₂₄₂ (0.7500)
		创新驱动力X₂₄	74.75		技术创新的产出及效益X₂₄₁	71
		创新驱动力X₂₄	74.75		行政管理及海关监管制度创新程度X₂₄₂	76

	政策动力	市场动力	环境动力	要素动力	产业动力	效益动力	创新动力
政策动力	1	3	3	2	2	1/2	1/2
市场动力	1/3	1	2	1/3	1/3	1	1/2
环境动力	1/3	1/2	1	1/3	1/2	1/3	1
要素动力	1/2	3	3	1	1/3	1/2	1
产业动力	1/2	3	2	3	1	1	2
效益动力	2	1	3	2	1	1	2
创新动力	2	2	1	1	1/2	1/2	1

一级指标及得分		二级指标及得分		三级指标及得分
天津滨海新区自由经济区发展演化动力机制 69.76	外生动力 X₁ 21.39	政策驱动力X₁₁	64.25	税收优惠X₁₁₁	66
		政策驱动力X₁₁	64.25	信贷优惠措施X₁₁₂	59
		市场驱动力X₁₂	62.60	吸引外商投资能力X₁₂₁	60
		市场驱动力X₁₂	62.60	实际利用外资X₁₂₂	73
		环境驱动力X₁₃	67.25	区位优势度X₁₃₁	69
		环境驱动力X₁₃	67.25	法制化程度X₁₃₂	62
	内生动力 X₂ 48.37	要素驱动力X₂₁	74.27	劳动力技能与素质X₂₁₁	73
				基础设施投入X₂₁₂	66
				土地成本X₂₁₃	60
				资本投入X₂₁₄	81
		产业驱动力X₂₂	74.44	区内产业专业化程度X₂₂₁	80
				新兴产业企业生产值X₂₂₂	58
				区内产业布局完善程度X₂₂₃	73
				出口导向加工制造业产值X₂₂₄	75
		效益驱动力X₂₃	67.82	区内税收收入水平X₂₃₁	72
				进出口贸易占所在省(区市)贸易进出口额比重X₂₃₂	67
				入区企业解决就业能力X₂₃₃	56
				创汇额X₂₃₄	69