地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (9): 1390-1401.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201509003
顾西辉1,2(), 张强1,2,3(
), 孙鹏4, 肖名忠1,2, 孔冬冬1,2
收稿日期:
2015-04-09
修回日期:
2015-07-03
出版日期:
2015-09-20
发布日期:
2015-10-29
作者简介:
作者简介:顾西辉(1990-), 男, 河南信阳人, 博士, 主要从事气象水文学研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Xihui GU1,2(), Qiang ZHANG1,2,3(
), Peng SUN4, Mingzhong XIAO1,2, Dongdong KONG1,2
Received:
2015-04-09
Revised:
2015-07-03
Online:
2015-09-20
Published:
2015-10-29
Supported by:
摘要:
采用塔里木河流域(塔河流域)8个水文站及相应气象站数据,全面分析了洪水发生量级、频率和峰现时间等特征,研究洪水发生成因及其影响。结果表明:1980s中后期塔河流域气温与降水持续增加,整个塔河流域年及季节洪峰流量普遍呈上升趋势,大部分在1980s中后期发生突变。1980s中期以后塔河流域年及季节洪峰流量呈持续增加或者显著增加趋势,量级位于整个观测时期均值之上,处于洪水“丰富”期。“丰富”期暴雨型和升温型洪水发生次数及造成的灾害损失均呈显著增加趋势,引起严重洪灾损失的洪水也集中在这一时期,且多由暴雨型洪水引发。大量级洪水(最大三场洪水及重现期大于10年的洪水)多集中发生在1990年之后,并且易引发多个水文站点同时出现。
顾西辉, 张强, 孙鹏, 肖名忠, 孔冬冬. 新疆塔河流域洪水量级、频率及峰现时间变化特征、成因及影响[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(9): 1390-1401.
Xihui GU, Qiang ZHANG, Peng SUN, Mingzhong XIAO, Dongdong KONG. Magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in the Tarim River, Xinjiang: Characteristics, causes and impacts[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(9): 1390-1401.
[1] | IPCC. Climate change and water. Intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, 2008, Technical Paper VI,200pp. |
[2] | Gu Xihui, Zhang Qiang, Liu Jianyu, et al.Characteristics, causes and impacts of the changes of the flood frequency in the Pearl River drainage basin from 1951 to 2010. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2014, 26(5): 661-670. |
[顾西辉, 张强, 刘剑宇, 等. 变化环境下1951-2015年珠江流域洪水频率变化特征、成因及影响研究. 湖泊科学, 2014, 26(5): 661-670.] | |
[3] | Shi Yafeng, Shen Yongping, Hu Ruji.Preliminary study on signal, impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in Northwest China. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2002, 24(3): 219-226. |
[施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和初步探讨. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3): 219-226.] | |
[4] | Feng Si, Huang Yun.Impact of global warming on the water cycle in Xinjiang region. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2006, 28(4): 500-505. |
[冯思, 黄云. 全球变暖对新疆水循环影响分析. 冰川冻土, 2006, 28(4): 500-505.] | |
[5] | Ci Hui, Zhang Qiang, Zhang Jianghui, et al.Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation events within Xinjiang during 1961-2010. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(10): 1881-1891. |
[慈晖, 张强, 张江辉, 等. 1961-2010 年新疆极端降水过程时空特征. 地理研究, 2014, 33(10): 1881-1891.] | |
[6] | Zhang Qiang, Li Jianfeng, Chen Xiaohong, et al.Spatial variability of probability distribution of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(1): 3-12. |
[张强, 李剑锋, 陈晓宏, 等. 基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征. 地理学报, 2011, 66(1): 3-12.] | |
[7] | Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Bai Yungang, et al.Spatio-temporal probability behaviors of the maximum consecutive wet days in Xinjiang, China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(3): 312-320. |
[李剑锋, 张强, 白云岗, 等. 新疆地区最大连续降水事件时空变化特征. 地理学报, 2012, 67(3): 312-320.] | |
[8] | Zhang Q, Sun P, Singh V P, et al. Spatial-temporal precipitation changes (1956-2000) and their implications for agriculture in China. Global and Planetary Change, 2012, 82/83: 86-95. |
[9] | Chen Yaning, Xu Changchun, Yang Yuhui, et al.Hydrology and water resources variation and its responses to regional climate change in Xinjiang. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(11): 1331-1341. |
[陈亚宁, 徐长春, 杨余辉, 等. 新疆水文水资源变化及对区域气候变化的响应. 地理学报, 2009, 64(11): 1331-1341.] | |
[10] | Wang Qiuxiang, Cui Caixia, Yao Yanli, et al.Variation trends and multi- scale analysis of flood affected area in various regions of Xinjiang. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(7): 769-779. |
[王秋香, 崔彩霞, 姚艳丽. 新疆不同区域洪灾受灾面积变化趋势及多尺度分析. 地理学报, 2008, 63(7): 769-779.] | |
[11] | Jiang Fengqing, Hu Ruji, Yang Yuehui.Abrupt change in the time sequences of flood disasters in Xinjiang and its possible climatic reasons. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2004, 26(6): 674-681. |
[姜逢清, 胡汝骥, 杨跃辉. 新疆洪灾时间序列突变及其气候原因分析. 冰川冻土, 2004, 26(6): 674-681.] | |
[12] | Shi Yuguang, Wen Kegang.Great Encyclopaedia of Meteorological Disasters of China: Xinjiang Volume. Beijiang: China Meteorological Press, 2006: 75-146. |
[史玉光, 温克刚. 中国气象灾害大典: 新疆卷. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006: 75-146.] | |
[13] | Mediero L, Santillán D, Garrote L, et al.Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 517: 1072-1088. |
[14] | Lang M.Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling. Journal of Hydrology, 1999, 255(3/4): 103-117. |
[15] | Zhang Lijuan, Chen Xiaohong.POT flood frequency analysis with historical floods in Wujiang River. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2013, 44(3): 268-275. |
[张丽娟, 陈晓宏. 考虑历史洪水的武江超定量洪水频率分析. 水利学报, 2013, 44(3): 268-275.] | |
[16] | Chebana F, Ouarda T B M J, Duong T C. Testing for multivariate trends in hydrological frequency analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 2013, 486: 519-530. |
[17] | Zhang Q, Qi T, Li J, et al.Spatiotemporal variations of pan evaporation in China during 1960-2005: Changing patterns and causes. International Journal of Climatology, 2015, 35(6): 903-912. |
[18] | Zhang Q, Gu X, Singh V P, et al.Flood frequency analysis with consideration of hydrological alterations: Changing properties, causes and implications. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 519: 803-813. |
[19] | Lei Hongfu, Xie Ping, Chen Guangcai, et al.Comparison and analysis on the performance of hydrological time series change-point testing methods. Water Resource and Power, 2007, 25(4): 36-40. |
[雷红富, 谢平, 陈广才, 等. 水文序列变异点检验方法的性能比较分析. 水电能源科学, 2007, 25(4): 36-40.] | |
[20] | Killick P.Changepoint: An R package for changepoint analysis. Journal of Statistical Software, 2014, 58(3): 1-19. |
[21] | Erdman C, Emerson G W.Bcp: an R package for performing a Bayesian analysis of change point problems. Journal of Statistical Software, 2007, 23(3): 1-13. |
[22] | Shen Leping, Su Hongchao, Wang Guoya, et al.The responses of glaciers and snow cover to climate change in Xinjiang (I): Hydrological effects. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(3): 513-527. |
[沈永平, 苏红超, 王国亚, 等. 新疆冰川、积雪对气候变化的响应(I): 水文效应. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3): 513-527.] | |
[23] | Shen Leping, Ding Yongjan, Liu Shiyin, et al.An increasing glacial lake outburst flood in Yarkant River Karakorum in past ten years. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2004, 26(2): 234-234. |
[沈永平, 丁永建, 刘时银, 等. 近期气温变暖叶尔羌河冰湖溃决洪水增加. 冰川冻土, 2004, 26(2): 234-234.] | |
[24] | Wang Di, Liu Jingshi, Hu Linjin.Monitoring and analyzing the glacier lake outburst floods and glacier variation in the Upper Yarkant River, Karakoram. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(5): 808-814. |
[王迪, 刘景时, 胡林金. 近期喀喇昆仑山叶尔羌河冰川阻塞湖突发洪水及冰川变化监测分析. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(5): 808-814.] | |
[25] | Shen Yongping, Su Hongchao, Wang Guoya, et al.The responses of glaciers and snow cover to climate change in Xinjiang (II): Hazards effects. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(6): 1355-1370. |
[沈永平, 苏红超, 王国亚, 等. 新疆冰川、积雪对气候变化的响应(II): 灾害效应. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(6): 1355-1370.] | |
[26] | Shen Yongping, Wang Shunde, Wang Guoya, et al.Response of glacier flash flood to global warming in Tarim River Basin. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(1): 32-35. |
[沈永平, 王顺德, 王国亚, 等. 塔里木河流域冰川洪水对全球变暖的响应. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(1): 32-35.] | |
[27] | Shen Yongping.Changes in Merzbacher Lake of Inylchek Glacier and glacial flash floods in Aksu River Basin, Tianshan during the period of 1903-2009. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(6): 993-1002. |
[沈永平. 百年来天山阿克苏河流域麦茨巴赫冰湖演化与冰川洪水灾害. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(6): 993-1002.] | |
[28] | Sun Peng, Zhang Qiang, Bai Yungang, et al.Periodic properties of the runoff changes of the Tarim River Basin: Possible causes and implications. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2013, 33(2): 216-222. |
[孙鹏, 张强, 白云岗, 等. 塔里木河流域径流量周期特征及其影响因素. 地理科学, 2013, 33(2): 216-222. | |
[29] | Jiang Fengqing, Zhu Cheng, Mu Guijin, et al.Recent magnification of flood and drought calamities in Xinjiang: An analysis of anthropogenetic effects. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(1): 57-66. |
[姜逢清, 朱诚, 穆桂金, 等. 当代新疆洪旱灾害扩大化: 人类活动的影响分析. 地理学报, 2002, 57(1): 57-66.] |
[1] | 王建邦, 赵军, 李传华, 朱钰, 康重阳, 高超. 2001-2015年中国植被覆盖人为影响的时空格局[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(3): 504-519. |
[2] | 包为民, 沈丹丹, 倪鹏, 周俊伟, 孙逸群. 滑动平均差检测法的提出及验证[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(11): 2075-2085. |
[3] | 侯孟阳, 姚顺波. 1978-2016年中国农业生态效率时空演变及趋势预测[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(11): 2168-2183. |
[4] | 查小春, 黄春长, 庞奖励, 姬霖, 王光朋. 汉江上游沉积记录的东汉时期古洪水事件考证研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(9): 1634-1644. |
[5] | 杨云平, 张明进, 孙昭华, 韩剑桥, 李华国, 由星莹. 三峡大坝下游水位变化与河道形态调整关系研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(5): 776-789. |
[6] | 高海东, 庞国伟, 李占斌, 程圣东. 黄土高原植被恢复潜力研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(5): 863-874. |
[7] | 张蕾, 吕厚荃, 王良宇, 杨冰韵. 中国土壤湿度的时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(9): 1494-1508. |
[8] | 刘德新, 马建华, 谷蕾, 陈彦芳. 全新世中后期开封西郊黄泛沉积序列的孢粉记录[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(5): 852-863. |
[9] | 杜军, 马鹏飞, 潘多. 1981-2014年西藏各时次气温的变化趋势分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(3): 422-432. |
[10] | 陈明星, 李扬, 龚颖华, 陆大道, 张华. 胡焕庸线两侧的人口分布与城镇化格局趋势----尝试回答李克强总理之问[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(2): 179-. |
[11] | 何慧, 廖雪萍, 陆虹, 陈思蓉. 华南地区1961-2014年夏季长周期旱涝急转特征[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(1): 129-141. |
[12] | 吴立, 朱诚, 李枫, 马春梅, 李兰, 孟华平, 刘辉, 王晓翠, 谭艳, 宋友桂. 江汉平原钟桥遗址地层揭示的史前洪水事件[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(7): 1149-1164. |
[13] | 胡贵明, 黄春长, 周亚利, 庞奖励, 查小春, 郭永强, 张玉柱, 赵雪如. 伊河龙门峡段全新世古洪水和历史洪水水文学重建[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(7): 1165-1176. |
[14] | 钟赛香, 袁甜, 苏香燕, 胡鹏, 薛熙明. 百年SSCI看国际人文地理学的发展特点与规律——基于73种人文地理类期刊的文献计量分析[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(4): 678-688. |
[15] | 高歌, 许崇育. 1961-2010年中国十大流域水分盈亏量时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(3): 380-391. |
|