地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (9): 1375-1389.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201509002
收稿日期:
2015-05-11
修回日期:
2015-07-10
出版日期:
2015-09-20
发布日期:
2015-09-20
作者简介:
作者简介:康蕾(1989-), 女, 山西人, 博士, 主要从事经济地理与区域发展研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Lei KANG1,2(), Li MA1(
), Yi LIU1
Received:
2015-05-11
Revised:
2015-07-10
Published:
2015-09-20
Online:
2015-09-20
Supported by:
摘要:
珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明:受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。
康蕾, 马丽, 刘毅. 珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(9): 1375-1389.
Lei KANG, Li MA, Yi LIU. Loss evaluation of farmland caused by sea level rise and storm surge in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(9): 1375-1389.
表3
珠三角地区各市未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水淹没高程下淹没耕地面积统计(hm2)
2030年 | 2050年 | 2100年 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
低估计 | 高估计 | 低估计 | 高估计 | 低估计 | 高估计 | |||
广州 | 19 462.75 | 25 585.39 | 19 500.64 | 25 649.55 | 19 609.74 | 25 786.43 | ||
深圳 | 113.05 | 174.42 | 113.13 | 174.59 | 114.87 | 175.31 | ||
珠海 | 10 400.83 | 12 778.43 | 10 400.92 | 12 778.43 | 10 401.19 | 12 778.83 | ||
佛山 | 7 027.02 | 11 785.66 | 7 061.93 | 11 817.74 | 7 145.29 | 11 900.38 | ||
惠州 | 1 847.21 | 5 406.00 | 1 847.21 | 5 406.00 | 1 847.21 | 5 407.12 | ||
汕尾 | 9 687.18 | 17 683.60 | 9 719.22 | 17 701.91 | 9 802.11 | 17 753.99 | ||
东莞 | 5 852.58 | 8 046.46 | 5 879.61 | 8 066.82 | 5 936.81 | 8 109.69 | ||
中山 | 8 286.49 | 9 776.66 | 8 288.93 | 9 779.15 | 8 295.36 | 9 781.61 | ||
江门 | 29 054.78 | 39 236.80 | 29 116.03 | 39 317.22 | 29 280.68 | 39 538.11 | ||
阳江 | 3 456.50 | 7 253.27 | 3 496.31 | 7 398.01 | 3 588.59 | 7 823.26 | ||
总计 | 95 188.39 | 137 726.69 | 95 423.93 | 138 089.42 | 96 021.85 | 139 054.73 |
表4
珠三角地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水影响下不同淹没高度的耕地面积预测统计(hm2)
淹没的高度(cm) | 2030年 | 2050年 | 2100年 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
低估计 | 高估计 | 低估计 | 高估计 | 低估计 | 高估计 | |||
< 30 | 34 969.53 | 1 248.19 | 34 888.2 | 1 284.78 | 1 155.5 | 1 393.04 | ||
30~50 | 996.68 | 737.03 | 1 021.05 | 779.14 | 34 564.41 | 838.25 | ||
50~80 | 1 405.93 | 38 771.32 | 1 407.89 | 38 713.34 | 1 482.76 | 38 610.98 | ||
80~120 | 1 783.21 | 1 540.95 | 1 798.32 | 1 557.07 | 1 809.44 | 1 685.78 | ||
120~150 | 30 947.32 | 1 203.16 | 30 949.37 | 1 199.17 | 30 797.96 | 1 156.06 | ||
> 150 | 25 085.72 | 94 226.04 | 25 359.1 | 94 555.92 | 26 211.78 | 95 370.62 |
表5
未来珠江三角洲各地市主要作物未来损失产量预测(t)
稻谷 | 花生 | 蔬菜 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
低估计 | 高估计 | 低估计 | 高估计 | 低估计 | 高估计 | ||||
2030年 | 广州 | 44250.58 | 80894.28 | 2435.99 | 4486.31 | 543554.90 | 911988.78 | ||
深圳 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.33 | 1765.37 | 5575.28 | |||
珠海 | 11138.30 | 20098.71 | 272.44 | 498.54 | 67771.14 | 105780.57 | |||
佛山 | 5116.29 | 14673.56 | 396.95 | 1144.22 | 147810.86 | 393660.84 | |||
惠州 | 2796.75 | 17315.66 | 371.33 | 2191.06 | 13337.00 | 125669.49 | |||
汕尾 | 33841.96 | 102444.30 | 2021.39 | 6079.56 | 111099.73 | 343857.01 | |||
东莞 | 1361.14 | 3402.31 | 17.63 | 44.61 | 87187.01 | 174153.96 | |||
中山 | 13576.67 | 24521.15 | 148.90 | 273.56 | 251815.27 | 370180.06 | |||
江门 | 84215.45 | 158611.04 | 2971.60 | 5666.90 | 148206.39 | 251388.43 | |||
阳江 | 14565.46 | 45469.40 | 1373.26 | 4262.24 | 32283.07 | 100692.40 | |||
2050年 | 广州 | 44639.75 | 81125.77 | 2457.99 | 4499.40 | 545807.69 | 914217.72 | ||
深圳 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.34 | 1780.08 | 5586.24 | |||
珠海 | 11138.63 | 20099.55 | 272.45 | 498.57 | 67774.00 | 105783.56 | |||
佛山 | 5152.17 | 14746.68 | 399.82 | 1149.85 | 149189.54 | 394747.15 | |||
惠州 | 2796.75 | 17316.38 | 371.33 | 2191.24 | 13337.00 | 125675.57 | |||
汕尾 | 34161.79 | 102741.42 | 2040.94 | 6097.18 | 112019.25 | 344359.76 | |||
东莞 | 1377.48 | 3417.51 | 17.81 | 44.82 | 88286.41 | 174870.86 | |||
中山 | 13616.11 | 24542.48 | 149.32 | 273.82 | 252269.09 | 370339.58 | |||
江门 | 84370.01 | 159005.43 | 2977.47 | 5680.63 | 148519.36 | 251916.70 | |||
阳江 | 14827.65 | 46201.10 | 1396.41 | 4329.56 | 32887.11 | 102185.00 | |||
2100年 | 广州 | 47787.00 | 81659.83 | 2569.66 | 4529.02 | 594658.37 | 919894.34 | ||
深圳 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.34 | 2325.41 | 5611.74 | |||
珠海 | 11678.93 | 20101.01 | 278.22 | 498.61 | 73192.26 | 105787.18 | |||
佛山 | 5788.34 | 14912.33 | 425.10 | 1162.67 | 177264.07 | 397644.78 | |||
惠州 | 3691.22 | 17319.43 | 419.97 | 2191.84 | 22366.52 | 125692.26 | |||
汕尾 | 39089.44 | 103461.80 | 2194.19 | 6139.36 | 136623.15 | 345721.44 | |||
东莞 | 1517.80 | 3454.87 | 18.83 | 45.34 | 100786.15 | 176421.63 | |||
中山 | 14361.25 | 24569.57 | 153.93 | 274.14 | 270467.39 | 370721.07 | |||
江门 | 88808.87 | 160097.57 | 3054.90 | 5720.41 | 161054.99 | 253251.39 | |||
阳江 | 17042.22 | 48276.50 | 1526.59 | 4525.91 | 39368.10 | 106694.87 |
表6
珠三角地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水影响下主要作物损失总产量及比重
稻谷 | 花生 | 蔬菜 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2030年 | 低估计损失(万t) | 21.09 | 1.00 | 140.48 |
占研究区比重(%) | 8.03 | 5.60 | 13.28 | |
占广东省比重(%) | 1.99 | 1.15 | 5.17 | |
高估计损失(万t) | 46.74 | 2.46 | 278.29 | |
占研究区比重(%) | 17.79 | 13.79 | 26.30 | |
占广东省比重(%) | 4.41 | 2.83 | 10.24 | |
2050年 | 低估计损失(万t) | 21.21 | 1.01 | 141.19 |
占研究区比重(%) | 8.07 | 5.64 | 13.34 | |
占广东省比重(%) | 2.00 | 1.16 | 5.19 | |
高估计损失(万t) | 46.92 | 2.48 | 278.97 | |
占研究区比重(%) | 17.86 | 13.86 | 26.36 | |
占广东省比重(%) | 4.42 | 2.84 | 10.26 | |
2100年 | 低估计损失(万t) | 22.98 | 1.06 | 157.81 |
占研究区比重(%) | 8.75 | 5.96 | 14.91 | |
占广东省比重(%) | 2.17 | 1.22 | 5.80 | |
高估计损失(万t) | 47.39 | 2.51 | 280.74 | |
占研究区比重(%) | 18.04 | 14.04 | 26.53 | |
占广东省比重(%) | 4.47 | 2.88 | 10.33 |
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