地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (9): 1375-1389.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201509002

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珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测

康蕾1,2(), 马丽1(), 刘毅1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-11 修回日期:2015-07-10 出版日期:2015-09-20 发布日期:2015-10-29
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:康蕾(1989-), 女, 山西人, 博士, 主要从事经济地理与区域发展研究。E-mail: kangleiwawa1989@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    “973”国家重点基础项目(2012CB955702)

Loss evaluation of farmland caused by sea level rise and storm surge in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change

Lei KANG1,2(), Li MA1(), Yi LIU1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2015-05-11 Revised:2015-07-10 Online:2015-09-20 Published:2015-10-29
  • Supported by:
    National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2012CB955702

摘要:

珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明:受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。

关键词: 海平面上升, 风暴潮增水, 耕地淹没, 耕地损失, 珠江三角洲

Abstract:

The Pearl River Delta region (PRD) is one of the regions seriously threatened by sea level rise and storm surges in Chinese coastal area in the context of global climate change, which causes huge loss of farmland and agricultural production. Based on the relevant research and experience, a loss evaluation model of farmland yield caused by sea level rise and storm surge was established. In this model, the submerged farmland area, cropland area and per unit yield of each kind of crops were concerned, while the impact of wind, flood time, changes of land use and plant structure were not considered during the long prediction term. Taking the PRD in Guangdong as the study area, this paper estimated and analyzed spatial distribution and losses of farmland in different scenarios in the years of 2030, 2050 and 2100, using the digital elevation model, land-use data, the local crop structure, rotation pattern, and yield loss ratio at different submerged heights obtained by field questionnaire investigation. The results showed that the proportion of submerged farmland and losses of agriculture production in the PRD would increase gradually from 2030 to 2100. Yangjiang, Foshan and Dongguan were the areas where submerged farmland increased obviously, while Guangzhou and Zhuhai were the areas with slow increase of submerged farmland. Besides, with sea level rising, the submerged farmland with higher submerged height increased, while that with lower submerged height declined. As for agricultural production, vegetables would have the greatest loss than rice and peanuts. From the point of cities, it was Jiangmen that had the greatest loss of rice. Shanwei and Jiangmen were the areas with serious loss of vegetables. Although the losses of peanut were generally smaller, Jiangmen, Guangzhou and Shanwei had the relatively high losses. At last, some suggestions were put forward, such as building sea wall and tidy gate in Jiangmen, Huizhou and Shanwei, enforcing ecological protection to mitigate storm surges and strengthening disaster warning.

Key words: sea level rise, storm surge, submerged farmland, loss of farmland, Pearl River Delta region