珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测

doi:10.11821/dlxb201509002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明：受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。

关键词: 海平面上升, 风暴潮增水, 耕地淹没, 耕地损失, 珠江三角洲

Abstract:

The Pearl River Delta region (PRD) is one of the regions seriously threatened by sea level rise and storm surges in Chinese coastal area in the context of global climate change, which causes huge loss of farmland and agricultural production. Based on the relevant research and experience, a loss evaluation model of farmland yield caused by sea level rise and storm surge was established. In this model, the submerged farmland area, cropland area and per unit yield of each kind of crops were concerned, while the impact of wind, flood time, changes of land use and plant structure were not considered during the long prediction term. Taking the PRD in Guangdong as the study area, this paper estimated and analyzed spatial distribution and losses of farmland in different scenarios in the years of 2030, 2050 and 2100, using the digital elevation model, land-use data, the local crop structure, rotation pattern, and yield loss ratio at different submerged heights obtained by field questionnaire investigation. The results showed that the proportion of submerged farmland and losses of agriculture production in the PRD would increase gradually from 2030 to 2100. Yangjiang, Foshan and Dongguan were the areas where submerged farmland increased obviously, while Guangzhou and Zhuhai were the areas with slow increase of submerged farmland. Besides, with sea level rising, the submerged farmland with higher submerged height increased, while that with lower submerged height declined. As for agricultural production, vegetables would have the greatest loss than rice and peanuts. From the point of cities, it was Jiangmen that had the greatest loss of rice. Shanwei and Jiangmen were the areas with serious loss of vegetables. Although the losses of peanut were generally smaller, Jiangmen, Guangzhou and Shanwei had the relatively high losses. At last, some suggestions were put forward, such as building sea wall and tidy gate in Jiangmen, Huizhou and Shanwei, enforcing ecological protection to mitigate storm surges and strengthening disaster warning.

Key words: sea level rise, storm surge, submerged farmland, loss of farmland, Pearl River Delta region

康蕾, 马丽, 刘毅. 珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(9): 1375-1389.

Lei KANG, Li MA, Yi LIU. Loss evaluation of farmland caused by sea level rise and storm surge in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(9): 1375-1389.

图/表 9

图1

表1

表2

表3

图2

图3

表4

表5

未来珠江三角洲各地市主要作物未来损失产量预测(t)

		稻谷			花生			蔬菜
		低估计		高估计		低估计	高估计	低估计	高估计
2030年	广州	44250.58	80894.28		2435.99	4486.31		543554.90	911988.78
	深圳	0.00	0.00		0.10	0.33		1765.37	5575.28
	珠海	11138.30	20098.71		272.44	498.54		67771.14	105780.57
	佛山	5116.29	14673.56		396.95	1144.22		147810.86	393660.84
	惠州	2796.75	17315.66		371.33	2191.06		13337.00	125669.49
	汕尾	33841.96	102444.30		2021.39	6079.56		111099.73	343857.01
	东莞	1361.14	3402.31		17.63	44.61		87187.01	174153.96
	中山	13576.67	24521.15		148.90	273.56		251815.27	370180.06
	中山	13576.67	24521.15	江门	148.90	273.56	84215.45	251815.27	370180.06	158611.04	2971.60	5666.90	148206.39	251388.43
	阳江	14565.46	45469.40	1373.26	4262.24	32283.07	100692.40
	阳江	14565.46	45469.40	1373.26	4262.24	32283.07	100692.40	2050年	广州	44639.75	81125.77		2457.99	4499.40	545807.69	914217.72
	深圳	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.34		1780.08		5586.24
珠海	11138.63	20099.55	272.45	498.57	67774.00		105783.56
佛山	5152.17	14746.68	399.82	1149.85	149189.54		394747.15
惠州	2796.75	17316.38	371.33	2191.24	13337.00		125675.57
汕尾	34161.79	102741.42		2040.94	6097.18		112019.25		344359.76
东莞	1377.48	3417.51		17.81	44.82		88286.41		174870.86
中山	13616.11	24542.48		149.32	273.82		252269.09		370339.58
江门	84370.01	159005.43		2977.47	5680.63		148519.36		251916.70
阳江	14827.65	46201.10		1396.41	4329.56		32887.11		102185.00
2100年	广州	47787.00	81659.83		2569.66	4529.02		594658.37	919894.34
	深圳	0.00	0.00		0.11	0.34		2325.41	5611.74
	珠海	11678.93	20101.01		278.22	498.61		73192.26	105787.18
	佛山	5788.34	14912.33		425.10	1162.67		177264.07	397644.78
	惠州	3691.22	17319.43		419.97	2191.84		22366.52	125692.26
	汕尾	39089.44	103461.80		2194.19	6139.36		136623.15	345721.44
	东莞	1517.80	3454.87		18.83	45.34		100786.15	176421.63
	中山	14361.25	24569.57		153.93	274.14		270467.39	370721.07
	江门	88808.87	160097.57		3054.90	5720.41		161054.99	253251.39
	阳江	17042.22	48276.50		1526.59	4525.91		39368.10	106694.87

表5

表6

参考文献 45

[1]	Kleinosky L R, Yarnal B, Fisher A.Vulnerability of Hampton Roads,Virginia to storm-surge flooding and sea level rise. Natural Hazards, 2007, 40: 43-70.
[2]	Wu Tao, Kang Jiancheng, Wang Fang, et al.The new progresses on global sea level change. Advances in Earth Science, 2006, 21(7): 730-737.
	[吴涛, 康建成, 王芳, 等. 全球海平面变化研究新进展. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(7): 730-737.
[3]	Sun Xiangping.China Offshore Regional Seas .Beijing: China Ocean Press, 2008: 157-158.
	[孙湘平. 中国近海区域海洋.北京: 海洋出版社, 2008: 157-158.]
[4]	Wang Guodong, Kang Jiancheng, Yan Guodong.A review on risk assessment of storm surge of coastal cities. Journal of Catastrophology, 2010, 25(3): 114-118.
	[王国栋, 康建成, 闫国东. 沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究评述. 灾害学,2010, 25(3): 114-118.]
[5]	China National Oceanic Administration. China Marine Disaster Bulletin [EB/OL], 2005-2014. .
	[中国国家海洋局.中国海洋灾害公报[EB/OL], 2005-2014. .]
[6]	Gan Shendong, Zhang Weisheng, Zong Hucheng, et al.Analysis of typhoon storm surge disasters along the South China coast and disaster prevention measures. Hydro-science and Engineering, 2012(6): 51-58.
	[甘申东, 章卫胜, 宗虎城, 等.我国南海沿海台风风暴潮灾害分析及减灾对策. 水利水运工程学报, 2012(6): 51-58.]
[7]	Dong Sheng, Gao Junguo, Li Xue, et al. A storm surge intensity classification based on extreme water level and concomitant wave height, 2015: 237-244.
[8]	Nicholls R J, Hoozemans F M J, Marchand M. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses.Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 1999(9): 69-87.
[9]	Lowe J A, Gregory J M, Flather R A.Changes in the occurrence of storm surges around the United Kingdom under a future climate scenario using a dynamic storm surge model driven by the Hadley Centre climate models. Climate Dynamics, 2001, 18: 179-188.
[10]	Dong Jianxi, Li Tao, Hou Jingming, et al.The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of storm surge in Guangdong Province and storm surge hazard study at Yangjiang City. Acta Oceanologica Sinica (Chinese), 2014, 36(3): 83-93.
	[董剑希, 李涛, 侯京明, 等. 广东省风暴潮时空分布特征及重点城市风暴潮风险研究. 海洋学报(中文版), 2014, 36(3): 83-93.]
[11]	Wu Wei, Liu Qiuxing, Yu Fujiang, et al.Inundation risk assessment of typhoon storm surge along Taizhou coastal areas. Marine Forecasts, 2012. 29(2): 25-31.
	[吴玮, 刘秋兴, 于福江, 等. 台州沿海地区台风风暴潮淹没风险分析. 海洋预报, 2012, 29(2): 25-31.]
[12]	Xiao Qihua, Zhang Jianxin, Huang Dongmei.Fuzzy decision method of fast evaluation of urban storm surge disasters: Taking Xiamen City as an example. Journal of Catastrophology, 2011, 26(2): 77-80.
	[肖启华, 张建新, 黄冬梅. 城市风暴潮灾害快速评估的模糊决策方法: 以厦门市为例. 灾害学, 2011, 26(2): 77-80.]
[13]	Tan Lirong.Assessment on comprehensive vulnerability of storm surge disasters of China's coastal regions [D]. Shanghai: East China Normal University, 2012.
	[谭丽荣. 中国沿海地区风暴潮灾害综合脆弱性评估[D]. 上海: 华东师范大学, 2012.]
[14]	Yin Jie.Study on the risk assessment of typhoon storm tide in China coastal area [D]. Shanghai: East China Normal University, 2011.
	[殷杰. 中国沿海台风风暴潮灾害风险评估研究[D]. 上海: 华东师范大学, 2011.]
[15]	Zhao Xin, Wang Xiaoxia, Li Li.Assessment and analysis of storm surge disaster economic losses: A case of Shandong Province. Chinese Fisheries Economics, 2011, 29(3): 91-97.
	[赵昕, 王晓霞, 李莉. 风暴潮灾害经济损失评估分析: 以山东省为例. 中国渔业经济, 2011, 29(3): 91-97.]
[16]	Yin Kedong, Wang Hui.The principal component model research of storm surge disaster loss evaluation. Statistics and Decision, 2010(19): 63-64.
	[殷克东, 王辉. 风暴潮灾害损失评估的主成分模型研究. 统计与决策, 2010(19): 63-64.]
[17]	Fang Hao, Li Shanfeng, Ye Xiaobin.The evaluation on economic loss caused by storm tides in Tianjin. Marine Environmental Science, 2007, 26(3): 271-274.
	[房浩, 李善峰, 叶晓滨. 天津市风暴潮经济损失评估. 海洋环境科学, 2007, 26(3): 271-274.]
[18]	Genovese E, Green C.Assessment of storm surge damage to coastal settlements in Southeast Florida. 2015: 407-427.
[19]	Yin Kedong, Wei Qian, Li Xingdong.The evaluation techniques of the socio-economic loss caused by storm surge disaster. Marine Environmental Science, 2012, 31(6): 835-837, 842.
	[殷克东, 韦茜, 李兴东. 风暴潮灾害社会经济损失评估研究. 海洋环境科学, 2012, 31(6): 835-837, 842.]
[20]	Zhao Lingdi, Chen Minghua.Risk zoning of economic loss caused by storm surge in coastal provinces and cities of china. Journal of Natural Disaster, 2011, 20(5): 100-104.
	[赵领娣, 陈明华. 中国东部沿海省市风暴潮经济损失风险区划. 自然灾害学报, 2011, 20(5): 100-104.]
[21]	Risouvan Eck N V, Kok M. Standard method for predicting damage and casualties as a result of floods, in The Netherlands Delft. Ministry of Transport Public Work and Water Management, 2001: 22-41.
[22]	Guo Kaiying.Assessment on storm surge disaster's economic losses in our country [D]. Qingdao: Ocean University of China, 2013.
	[郭恺莹. 我国风暴潮灾害经济损失评估[D]. 青岛: 中国海洋大学, 2013.]
[23]	Zuo Jinzhong.A discussion on flood disaster evaluation methods. Shanxi Water Resources, 2003(1): 7-8.
	[左晋中. 洪涝灾情评估方法的探讨. 山西水利, 2003(1): 7-8.]
[24]	Ye Lin, Yu Fujiang.The long-range change and forecast of storm surge disasters in China. Marine Forecast, 2002, 19(1):89-96.
	[叶琳, 于福江. 我国风暴潮灾的长期变化与预测. 海洋预报, 2002, 19(1): 89-96.]
[25]	Chen Manrong, Wang Shaoping.Storm-tide disaster and its forecast in Shanghai City. Journal of Catastrophology, 2000,15(3): 26-29.
	[陈满荣, 王少平. 上海城市风暴潮灾害及其预测. 灾害学, 2000, 15(3): 26-29.]
[26]	Hu Changxin, Jin Yun.Quasi-periodicity and its forecast of windstorm tide disaster in Shanghai. Urban Roads Bridges & Flood Control, 2007(4): 26-29.
	[胡昌新, 金云. 上海风暴潮灾害的准周期性及其预测. 城市道桥与防洪, 2007(4): 26-29.]
[27]	Wang Kangfasheng, Yin Zhan'e, Yin Jie. Analysis on typhoon-induced storm surge vulnerability of China's coastal areas on rising sea level background. Journal of Tropical Oceanograthy, 2011, 30(6): 31-36.
	[王康发生, 尹占娥, 殷杰. 海平面上升背景下中国沿海台风风暴潮脆弱性分析. 热带海洋学报, 2011, 30(6): 31-36.]
[28]	Feng Weizhong, Zhang Juan, You Dawei, et al.A discussion on reasons for impact of over-estimated sea level rise on storm surge disaster forecasting of the Pearl River Estuary. Tropical Geography, 2013, 33(5): 640-645.
	[冯伟忠, 张娟, 游大伟, 等. 被高估的“海平面上升对珠江口风暴潮灾害评估影响”的原因探析. 热带地理, 2013, 33(5): 640-645.]
[29]	Tang Chaolian, You Dawei, Chen Tegu, et al.Sea-level changes along the coast of Guangdong Province during 1986-2008. Tropical Geography, 2009, 29(5): 423-428.
	[汤超莲, 游大伟, 陈特固, 等. 1986-2008年广东沿海海平面变化趋势. 热带地理, 2009, 29(5): 423-428.]
[30]	You Dawei, Tang Chaolian, Chen Tegu, et al.Sea level changes along Guangdong coast over the last century. Tropical Geography, 2012, 32(1): 1-5.
	[游大伟, 汤超莲, 陈特固, 等. 近百年广东沿海海平面变化趋势. 热带地理, 2012, 32(1): 1-5.]
[31]	Han Xibin, Long Jiangping, Li Jiabiao, et al.Research progress on the vulnerability of the Pearl River Delta. Tropical Geography, 2010, 30(1): 1-7.
	[韩喜彬, 龙江平, 李家彪, 等. 珠江三角洲脆弱性研究进展. 热带地理, 2010, 30(1): 1-7.]
[32]	Li Kuo, Li Guosheng.Calculation of return period for storm surge in the Pearl River Delta region. Progress in Geography, 2010, 29(4): 433-438.
	[李阔, 李国胜. 珠江三角洲地区风暴潮重现期及增水与环境要素的关系. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(4): 433-438.]
[33]	He Lei, Li Guosheng, Li Kuo, et al.Multi-scale prediction of regional sea level change based on EEMD and BP neural network. Quaternary Sciences, 2015, 35(2): 374-382.
	[何蕾, 李国胜, 李阔, 等. 基于EEMD及BP神经网络的区域海平面多尺度预测研究. 第四纪研究, 2015, 35(2): 374-382.]
[34]	Li Guosheng, Li Kuo.Integrated assessment on risk of storm surges in the central coastal area of Guangdong Province. Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2013, 35(10): 1-9.
	[李国胜, 李阔. 广东省中部沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险综合评估. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 35(10): 1-9.]
[35]	IPCC. Working Group 1 Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers. 2013.
[36]	Ji Zixiu, Shi Yafeng.Sea level rise, coastal disaster and coastal protection. Journal of Natural Disasters, 1996, 5(2): 56-64.
	[季子修, 施雅风. 海平面上升、海岸带灾害与海岸防护问题. 自然灾害学报, 1996, 5(2): 56-64.]
[37]	Kong Lan, Chen Xiaohong.Status quo and impact of sea level rise and its countermeasures. Pearl River, 2012(5): 35-42.
	[孔兰, 陈晓宏. 海平面上升的研究现状及其影响对策研究. 人民珠江, 2012(5): 35-42.]
[38]	Chen Xiaohong, Chen Yongqin.Hydrological change and its causes in the river network of the Pearl River Delta. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(4): 429-436.
	[陈晓宏, 陈永勤. 珠江三角洲网河区水文与地貌特征变异及其成因. 地理学报, 2002, 57(4): 429-436.]
[39]	Shi Cui, Chen Xiaohong, Zhang Qiang.Change-points of water levels in the Pearl River Delta in January and July for the last decades. Tropical Geography, 2012, 32(3): 233-240.
	[时翠, 陈晓宏, 张强. 近几十年来珠江三角洲1月和7月水位变异分析. 热带地理, 2012, 32(3): 233-240.]
[40]	Kong Lan, Chen Xiaohong, Zhang Qiang, et al.Impacts of rising sea level on water level changes along the Pearl River Estuary, China. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2010, 19(2): 390-393.
	[孔兰, 陈晓宏, 张强, 等. 海平面上升对珠江口水位影响的分析. 生态环境学报, 2010, 19(2): 390-393.]
[41]	He Lei, Li Guosheng, Li Kuo, et al.Changes and trends of sea level in the Pearl River Delta in the last 50 years. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(5): 988-1000.
	[何蕾, 李国胜, 李阔, 等. 1959年来珠江三角洲地区的海平面变化与趋势. 地理研究, 2014, 33(5): 988-1000.]
[42]	Shi Guoqing.A disscussion on loss rate of flood and its determination method. Journal of Economics of Water Resources, 1990(2): 37-42.
	[施国庆. 洪灾损失率及其确定方法探讨. 水利经济, 1990(2): 37-42.]
[43]	Ye Xujun, Wang Zhaoqian, Wang Chenghong, et al.Impacts of typhoon storm on farmland ecological environments in the eastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and their countermeasures. Eco-Agriculture Research, 1999, 7(4): 40-42.
	[叶旭君, 王兆骞, 汪成宏, 等. 台风暴潮对浙东沿海农田生态环境的影响及其对策. 生态农业研究,1999,7(4): 40-42.]
[44]	Zhao Qingliang, Xu Shiyuan, Wang Jun, et al.A review of risk assessment of storm surge on coastal cities. Progress in Geography, 2007, 26(5): 32-40.
	[赵庆良, 许世远, 王军, 等. 沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展. 地理科学进展, 2007, 26(5): 32-40.]
[45]	Yu Donghua, Wu Chaoyu, Lv Bingquan, et al.Disaster of storm surge and the countermeasures in Guangdong coastal areas. Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University (Natural Science), 2009, 28(4): 440-444, 449.
	[余东华, 吴超羽, 吕炳全, 等. 广东沿海地区风暴潮灾害及其防御. 浙江海洋学院学报(自然科学版), 2009, 28(4): 440-444, 449.]

	情景	2030年	2050年	2100年
海平面上升与风暴潮增水叠加淹没高程	高估计	4.5006 m	4.5822 m	4.7862 m
海平面上升与风暴潮增水叠加淹没高程	低估计	3.2376 m	3.2992 m	3.4532 m

淹没高度	蔬菜	花生	稻谷
< 30 cm	20	26.52	24.79
30~50 cm	40	30.63	34.385
50~80 cm	80	35.83	36.11
80~120 cm	85	45.83	40.57
120-150 cm	100	50.5	54.21
>150 cm	100	100	100

	2030年			2050年			2100年
	低估计		高估计		低估计	高估计	低估计	高估计
广州	19 462.75	25 585.39		19 500.64	25 649.55		19 609.74	25 786.43
深圳	113.05	174.42		113.13	174.59		114.87	175.31
珠海	10 400.83	12 778.43		10 400.92	12 778.43		10 401.19	12 778.83
佛山	7 027.02	11 785.66		7 061.93	11 817.74		7 145.29	11 900.38
惠州	1 847.21	5 406.00		1 847.21	5 406.00		1 847.21	5 407.12
汕尾	9 687.18	17 683.60		9 719.22	17 701.91		9 802.11	17 753.99
东莞	5 852.58	8 046.46		5 879.61	8 066.82		5 936.81	8 109.69
中山	8 286.49	9 776.66		8 288.93	9 779.15		8 295.36	9 781.61
江门	29 054.78	39 236.80		29 116.03	39 317.22		29 280.68	39 538.11
阳江	3 456.50	7 253.27		3 496.31	7 398.01		3 588.59	7 823.26
总计	95 188.39	137 726.69		95 423.93	138 089.42		96 021.85	139 054.73

淹没的高度(cm)	2030年			2050年			2100年
淹没的高度(cm)	低估计		高估计		低估计	高估计	低估计	高估计
< 30	34 969.53	1 248.19		34 888.2	1 284.78		1 155.5	1 393.04
30~50	996.68	737.03		1 021.05	779.14		34 564.41	838.25
50~80	1 405.93	38 771.32		1 407.89	38 713.34		1 482.76	38 610.98
80~120	1 783.21	1 540.95		1 798.32	1 557.07		1 809.44	1 685.78
120~150	30 947.32	1 203.16		30 949.37	1 199.17		30 797.96	1 156.06
> 150	25 085.72	94 226.04		25 359.1	94 555.92		26 211.78	95 370.62

		稻谷	花生	蔬菜
2030年	低估计损失(万t)	21.09	1.00	140.48
	占研究区比重(%)	8.03	5.60	13.28
	占广东省比重(%)	1.99	1.15	5.17
	高估计损失(万t)	46.74	2.46	278.29
	占研究区比重(%)	17.79	13.79	26.30
	占广东省比重(%)	4.41	2.83	10.24
2050年	低估计损失(万t)	21.21	1.01	141.19
	占研究区比重(%)	8.07	5.64	13.34
	占广东省比重(%)	2.00	1.16	5.19
	高估计损失(万t)	46.92	2.48	278.97
	占研究区比重(%)	17.86	13.86	26.36
	占广东省比重(%)	4.42	2.84	10.26
2100年	低估计损失(万t)	22.98	1.06	157.81
	占研究区比重(%)	8.75	5.96	14.91
	占广东省比重(%)	2.17	1.22	5.80
	高估计损失(万t)	47.39	2.51	280.74
	占研究区比重(%)	18.04	14.04	26.53
	占广东省比重(%)	4.47	2.88	10.33