地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (7): 1041-1051.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201507002

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于社会脆弱性的中国高温灾害人群健康风险评价

谢盼(), 王仰麟(), 刘焱序, 彭建   

  1. 北京大学城市与环境学院 地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室,北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2015-01-26 修回日期:2015-05-27 出版日期:2015-07-20 发布日期:2015-08-11
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:谢盼(1989-), 女, 湖北赤壁人, 硕士, 主要从事综合自然地理与景观生态研究。E-mail: xiepan1234@gmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(41330747)

Incorporating social vulnerability to assess population health risk due to heat stress in China

Pan XIE(), Yanglin WANG(), Yanxu LIU, Jian PENG   

  1. Ministry Education Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2015-01-26 Revised:2015-05-27 Online:2015-07-20 Published:2015-08-11
  • Supported by:
    Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41330747

摘要:

本研究通过综合考虑高温胁迫、社会脆弱性和人口暴露,提出基于社会脆弱性的高温灾害风险评价框架,结合气象数据、遥感数据、社会经济数据构建多元数据融合的评价指标体系,开展全国分县高温灾害风险评价。研究结果表明,高温灾害脆弱性热点区域主要集中在中国新疆西部、豫西皖北交界处、四川盆地、洞庭湖流域、广西境内珠江流域;而华中地区湖北江汉平原和湖南洞庭湖流域、西南地区四川省和重庆市交界处的四川盆地、华东地区江浙沪一带、华南珠江流域,则是中国突出的高温灾害风险热点区。高温灾害脆弱性热点区和高温灾害风险热点区的分布出现比较明显的差异,高温灾害脆弱性热点区主要分布于高温胁迫较高或社会经济较差的不发达地区,区域人群由于经济上的适应能力较差而受到高温威胁的概率较大;而高温灾害风险则强调灾害一旦发生时的可能损失,其热点区域主要分布于人口聚集、经济较为发达的大城市区域。就主导因子分区来说,高温胁迫主导区域主要为平原、盆地以及大江大河流域,社会脆弱性主导区域主要位于经济欠发达地区以及脆弱性人群聚集区;人口暴露主导区域则主要集中在人口密集的中心城市和沿海地区。

关键词: 高温灾害风险, 人群健康, 高温胁迫, 社会脆弱性, 主导因子分区

Abstract:

This paper presented a new conceptual framework by taking account of heat stress, social vulnerability, and population exposure. Meanwhile, an index system combining environmental data, demographics data and socioeconomic data has been built for the quantitative assessment of county-level heat stress risk pattern of China. The counties with the greatest vulnerability scores contain the Tarim Basin in Northwest China, Yudong Plain and Huaibei Plain in North China, Sichuan Basin in Southwest China, Jianghan Plain and Dongting Lake Basin in Central China, and Pearl River Basin in South China. The hot spots of heat stress risk are located in Jianghan Plain and Dongting Lake Basin in Central China, Sichuan Basin in Southwest China, the junction of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in East China, and Pearl River Basin in South China, especially the Pearl River Delta Region. The hot spots of vulnerability are located in counties of high heat stress or high social vulnerability level, while the hot spots of risk mainly consist of metropolitan areas with dense population and advanced economic level. The results of dominant factor partition show that heat stress dominant areas are mainly located in basins or plains which are more prone to high temperature, social vulnerability dominant areas are mainly located in less developed counties, and population exposure dominant areas are mainly located in coastal counties with dense population.

Key words: heat related risk, population health, heat stress, social vulnerability, dominant factor partition