地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (6): 864-878.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201506002

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中美在南亚地缘影响力的时空演变及机制

王淑芳1,2(), 葛岳静1(), 刘玉立1   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京 100875
    2. 河南理工大学经济管理学院,焦作 454000
  • 收稿日期:2014-09-01 修回日期:2015-02-20 出版日期:2015-06-20 发布日期:2015-07-16
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王淑芳(1979-), 女, 浙江人, 博士, 副教授, 主要从事全球化与地缘环境研究。E-mail:wangshufang@mail.bnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK12B03);国家自然科学基金项目(41171097)

The spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of geopolitical influence of China and the US in South Asia

Shufang WANG1,2(), Yuejing GE1(), Yuli LIU1   

  1. 1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2. School of Economics and Management, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, Henan, China
  • Received:2014-09-01 Revised:2015-02-20 Online:2015-06-20 Published:2015-07-16
  • Supported by:
    The National Science and Technology Support Program, No.2012BAK12B03;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41171097

摘要:

南亚是中美两国重要的地缘战略区,无论是对中国海上运输的安全和西部边疆的稳定,还是对美国实施“亚太再平衡”战略,都有着十分重要的作用。如何解析中美在南亚地缘影响力的变化及演变机制,是需要解决的关键科学问题。结合地理学、国际关系学和政治学研究视角,采用数学建模方法,构建国家地缘影响力的指标体系和模型,选取南亚为研究区域,探讨中美在南亚地缘影响力的时空演变,探寻地缘影响力演变的影响因素以及驱动机制。结果表明:① 近10年,中美在南亚的地缘影响力在小幅波动中呈逐年上升趋势。从增幅比率看,中国在南亚地缘影响力的增速要比美国快。② 国家地缘影响力演变是一个缓慢过程。2003-2012年间,中美在南亚国家和地区的地缘影响力变化幅度不大。③ 硬实力、软实力、相互依赖力和摩擦力是地缘影响力演变的主要影响因素。其中,硬实力和软实力是主导因素,起拉力作用;相互依赖力是辅助因素,起推力作用;而摩擦力是弱化因素,起反向力作用。④ 中美在南亚地缘影响力演变的驱动力包括地缘区位、地缘政治、地缘经济和地缘文化。地缘区位是国家地缘影响力演变的制约力,地缘政治是主导力,地缘经济是驱动力,地缘文化是辐射力。⑤ 国家硬实力不等于地缘影响力,国家硬实力强并不能代表其对外的地缘影响力就高,两者是非线性关系。硬实力虽起主导作用,但不能决定地缘影响力变化的强度和速度。

关键词: 地缘影响力, 时空变化, 演变机制, 南亚, 中国, 美国

Abstract:

As a vital geo-strategic area for China and the US, South Asia plays an important role in international geopolitics. On one hand, China's maritime transportation safety and the stability of western frontier are closely related with South Asia. On the other hand, the US needs to implement "Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy" by means of the support of South Asia. Therefore, how to analyze the changes and evolution mechanism of geopolitical influence (i.e., geo-influence) of China and the US in South Asia, has become the key research question. This paper proposes the index system and mathematical model of geo-influence by combining geography, international relations and political perspective. Furthermore, the paper explores the main influencing factors and driving mechanism of geo-influence evolution by analyzing the spatio-temporal changes of geo-influence of China and the US in South Asia. In this study, five results can be concluded as follows: (1) The geo-influence of China and the US in South Asia has been rising slowly with small fluctuations from 2003 to 2012. What’s more, the geo-influence of China grew faster than that of the US. (2) The evolution of national geo-influence is a slow process. From 2003 to 2012, the changes of geo-influence of China and the US in South Asia fluctuated within a narrow range. (3) Hard power, soft power, interdependent power and friction force are the main effect factors of geo-influence. Hard power and soft power are the dominant factors, which play a pulling role. Interdependent power is the auxiliary factor, which plays a pushing role. Friction force is the weakening factor, which plays a reversing role. (4) The driving mechanism of geo-influence evolution of China and the US in South Asia involves geographical location, geopolitics, geo-economy and geo-culture. Among them, geographical location acts as the restricting force; geopolitics acts as the leading force; geo-economy acts as the driving force; geo-culture acts as the radiate force. (5) National hard power is not equal to the geo-influence. One strong country does not necessarily have the same strong geo-influence. Thus there is a non-linear relationship between national hard power and geo-influence. Hard power does play a leading role, but it cannot determine the strength and speed of geo-influence changes.

Key words: geopolitics influence, spatio-temporal changes, evolution mechanism, South Asia, China, the US