中美在南亚地缘影响力的时空演变及机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb201506002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

南亚是中美两国重要的地缘战略区,无论是对中国海上运输的安全和西部边疆的稳定,还是对美国实施“亚太再平衡”战略,都有着十分重要的作用。如何解析中美在南亚地缘影响力的变化及演变机制,是需要解决的关键科学问题。结合地理学、国际关系学和政治学研究视角,采用数学建模方法,构建国家地缘影响力的指标体系和模型,选取南亚为研究区域,探讨中美在南亚地缘影响力的时空演变,探寻地缘影响力演变的影响因素以及驱动机制。结果表明：① 近10年,中美在南亚的地缘影响力在小幅波动中呈逐年上升趋势。从增幅比率看,中国在南亚地缘影响力的增速要比美国快。② 国家地缘影响力演变是一个缓慢过程。2003-2012年间,中美在南亚国家和地区的地缘影响力变化幅度不大。③ 硬实力、软实力、相互依赖力和摩擦力是地缘影响力演变的主要影响因素。其中,硬实力和软实力是主导因素,起拉力作用;相互依赖力是辅助因素,起推力作用;而摩擦力是弱化因素,起反向力作用。④ 中美在南亚地缘影响力演变的驱动力包括地缘区位、地缘政治、地缘经济和地缘文化。地缘区位是国家地缘影响力演变的制约力,地缘政治是主导力,地缘经济是驱动力,地缘文化是辐射力。⑤ 国家硬实力不等于地缘影响力,国家硬实力强并不能代表其对外的地缘影响力就高,两者是非线性关系。硬实力虽起主导作用,但不能决定地缘影响力变化的强度和速度。

关键词: 地缘影响力, 时空变化, 演变机制, 南亚, 中国, 美国

Abstract:

As a vital geo-strategic area for China and the US, South Asia plays an important role in international geopolitics. On one hand, China's maritime transportation safety and the stability of western frontier are closely related with South Asia. On the other hand, the US needs to implement "Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy" by means of the support of South Asia. Therefore, how to analyze the changes and evolution mechanism of geopolitical influence (i.e., geo-influence) of China and the US in South Asia, has become the key research question. This paper proposes the index system and mathematical model of geo-influence by combining geography, international relations and political perspective. Furthermore, the paper explores the main influencing factors and driving mechanism of geo-influence evolution by analyzing the spatio-temporal changes of geo-influence of China and the US in South Asia. In this study, five results can be concluded as follows: (1) The geo-influence of China and the US in South Asia has been rising slowly with small fluctuations from 2003 to 2012. What’s more, the geo-influence of China grew faster than that of the US. (2) The evolution of national geo-influence is a slow process. From 2003 to 2012, the changes of geo-influence of China and the US in South Asia fluctuated within a narrow range. (3) Hard power, soft power, interdependent power and friction force are the main effect factors of geo-influence. Hard power and soft power are the dominant factors, which play a pulling role. Interdependent power is the auxiliary factor, which plays a pushing role. Friction force is the weakening factor, which plays a reversing role. (4) The driving mechanism of geo-influence evolution of China and the US in South Asia involves geographical location, geopolitics, geo-economy and geo-culture. Among them, geographical location acts as the restricting force; geopolitics acts as the leading force; geo-economy acts as the driving force; geo-culture acts as the radiate force. (5) National hard power is not equal to the geo-influence. One strong country does not necessarily have the same strong geo-influence. Thus there is a non-linear relationship between national hard power and geo-influence. Hard power does play a leading role, but it cannot determine the strength and speed of geo-influence changes.

Key words: geopolitics influence, spatio-temporal changes, evolution mechanism, South Asia, China, the US

王淑芳, 葛岳静, 刘玉立. 中美在南亚地缘影响力的时空演变及机制[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(6): 864-878.

Shufang WANG, Yuejing GE, Yuli LIU. The spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of geopolitical influence of China and the US in South Asia[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(6): 864-878.

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地缘影响力评价项	一级指标	二级指标
硬实力	基本实力A₁	人口（亿）、面积（km²）
	经济实力A₂	国内生产总值GDP（亿美元）
	军事实力A₃	军费支出（亿美元）
	科技实力A₄	研发支出（亿美元）、高科技出口额（亿美元）
软实力	政策与制度B₁	发展模式的稳定性(1低至6高) 发展模式的自我调整能力(1低至6高)
	国家形象B₂	对外维和活动（次数）、官方发展援助（万美元）
	文化交流B₃	影视文化出口额（亿美元）、外国留学生人数（万人）
相互依赖力	国家贸易C₁	进出口贸易总额（亿美元）
相互依赖力	直接投资C₂	对外直接投资额（亿美元）

	中-印	美-印	中-巴	美-巴	中-孟	美-孟	中-尼	美-尼	中-不丹	美-不丹	中-斯	美-斯	中-马	美-马
2003	5.69	7.48	8.93	10.10	5.41	7.86	6.95	8.69	6.61	8.43	5.15	7.33	5.15	6.90
2005	7.42	7.79	9.06	8.19	7.06	8.19	8.20	8.19	7.80	7.95	6.71	7.63	6.71	7.19
2007	7.85	7.64	10.08	8.44	7.47	8.03	8.26	7.64	8.68	8.19	6.76	7.12	7.11	7.05
2009	8.51	9.07	13.35	9.53	9.89	9.07	11.49	9.07	9.89	7.96	8.95	8.04	8.51	7.20
2011	8.24	9.64	14.28	9.17	9.11	7.51	12.08	8.29	11.12	8.05	8.66	7.00	9.11	6.93
2012	9.03	10.35	14.88	9.85	11.03	9.37	12.18	8.91	11.59	8.65	9.03	7.52	9.49	7.44

时间
	硬实力		软实力		相互依赖力		综合实力		地缘影响力		上升比率
	中	美	中	美	中	美	中	美	中	美	中	美
2003	8.00	17.33	2.00	4.33	2.67	5.78	12.67	27.44	7.31	7.86
2005	9.92	17.17	2.48	4.29	3.31	5.72	15.71	27.18	8.62	7.79	17.97%	-0.95%
2007	10.50	16.83	2.63	4.21	3.50	5.61	16.63	26.65	10.08	7.26	16.96%	-6.73%
2009	13.22	18.08	3.31	4.52	4.41	6.03	20.94	28.63	12.08	7.42	19.79%	2.19%
2011	12.80	15.74	3.20	3.93	4.27	4.27	20.26	24.92	11.12	7.73	-7.93%	4.20%
2012	13.34	16.91	3.33	4.23	4.45	5.64	21.12	26.77	11.59	8.31	4.22%	7.44%

国家	孔子学院(7所)	孔子课堂(5个)
巴基斯坦	(1) 伊斯兰堡孔子学院 (2) 卡拉奇大学孔子学院	穆扎法尔格尔短波收听俱乐部广播孔子课堂
孟加拉国	南北大学孔子学院	孟加拉国山度玛丽亚姆机构广播孔子课堂
尼泊尔	加德满都大学孔子学院	(1) 尼泊尔–中国人民友好联络委员会广播孔子课堂 (2) L.R.I国际学校孔子课堂
斯里兰卡	凯拉尼亚大学孔子学院	斯里兰卡兰比尼听众协会广播孔子课堂
印度	(1) 韦洛尔科技大学孔子学院 (2) 孟买大学孔子学院	无