千岛湖社会—生态系统恢复力测度与影响机理

doi:10.11821/dlxb201505009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

立足反映恢复力属性特征的盆地模型理论,构建基于稳定性景观的恢复力评价体系。从脆弱性、应对能力两大层面以及社会、经济、生态三大子系统入手,建立旅游地社会—生态系统恢复力测度指标体系,运用集对分析法,测度千岛湖旅游地社会—生态系统恢复力,甄别影响恢复力的主要因子,揭示旅游地社会—生态系统恢复力因子影响机理及曲线规律。结果表明：① 1987-2012年间千岛湖旅游地社会—生态系统脆弱性指数由0.4576缓慢上升至0.5622,应对能力指数由0.0282快速上升至0.9725,恢复力指数由0.1276稳步上升至0.8669,恢复力应是脆弱性与应对能力相互作用的结果。② 总脆弱性受生态子系统脆弱性影响最大,总应对能力受经济子系统应对能力影响最大,总恢复力受社会和经济子系统恢复力影响较大。总应对能力对恢复力起着决定性作用,其中社会和经济系统的应对能力作用更加突出。③ 恢复力因子影响曲线可分为线性递增和递减、非线性U型/倒U型递增和递减6种类型,不同阶段、不同因子对系统恢复力作用方式、性质、速率具有差异性,主要以非线性影响为主,且存在不确定性。

关键词: 旅游地社会—生态系统, 恢复力, 影响因子, 千岛湖

Abstract:

The primary goal of this study is to build a resilience evaluation system with stability landscape based on the theory of basin model which reflects the characteristics of resilience. The study proposes the socio-ecological system resilience indicators of tourist destination, including the fragility, and response capacity in social, economic and ecological subsystems. In particular, by adopting the set pair analysis, the paper empirically measures the socio-ecological system resilience, identifies the main factors influencing resilience, and illustrates the mechanism that influences the tourism socio-ecological system. In addition, the paper introduces curve distribution patterns of Qiandao Lake. The results are as follows: (1) During the period 1987-2012, the socio-ecological system fragility index in the Qiandao Lake slowly increased from 0.4576 to 0.5622, the index of adaptive capacity rose rapidly from 0.0282 to 0.9725, and the resilience index rose steadily from 0.1276 to 0.8669. The resilience should be the result of the interaction between fragility and response capability. (2) The total fragility is mostly affected by the ecological subsystem, whereas the total response capacity, by the economic subsystem. The social and economic subsystems, however, directly affect the total resilience. As a matter of fact, the total response capacity plays a decisive role in resilience, in which response capacity of social and economic subsystems are more significant, although the system itself also has certain resistance and resilience. (3) In each subsystem, the resilience factors are divided into two categories respectively with regard to the fragility and response capacity. The fragility consists of the base elements of the subsystems and the relevant variables brought about by tourism development. The response capacity mainly includes the input and storage factors in every subsystem. (4) In the socio-ecological system of tourist destination, the relationship between the impact factors and the resilience falls into roughly six curve types. On the one hand, there are two types of linear relationships between the resilience and ecological background conditions, social stability, industrial livelihood and ecological control measures. The one is in the trend of progressive increase and the other, of progressive decrease. On the other hand, U-shaped curves or inverted U-shaped curves, are mainly related to fragility indexes and response capacity indexes brought by tourism development. In terms of impact direction, rates and ways, the influence curve of resilience factors can be divided into four types, namely U-shaped increasing curve, U-shaped decreasing curve, inverted U-shaped curve which increases fast at first and then decreases slowly, and inverted U-shaped curve which increases slowly at first and then decreases fast. In conclusion, nonlinear effects still dominate. There are differences and uncertainty in the direction and rate of the factors. The results, in fact, further confirm the nonlinear thought of resilience and the applicability of the set pair analysis method.

Key words: tourism socio-ecological system, resilience, impact factors, Qiandao Lake

王群, 陆林, 杨兴柱. 千岛湖社会—生态系统恢复力测度与影响机理[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(5): 779-795.

Qun WANG, Lin LU, Xingzhu YANG. Study on measurement and impact mechanism of socio-ecological system resilience in Qiandao Lake[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(5): 779-795.

图/表 7

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表1

千岛湖旅游地社会—生态系统恢复力测度指标体系

项目	社会系统恢复力指标	指标释义影响性质	经济系统恢复力指标	指标释义影响性质	生态系统恢复力指标	指标释义影响性质
脆弱性指标	人口自然增长率(‰)	衡量系统人口特征(-)	旅游经济总收入(×10⁸元)	衡量系统旅游效益(+)	森林覆盖率(%)	衡量系统自然条件(+)
	外来人口比例(%)	衡量系统开放性(-)	旅游人数(×10⁴人)	衡量系统旅游规模(+)	噪声水平(db)	衡量旅游干扰带来的噪声变化(-)
	旅游者与当地居民比	衡量系统人口结构(+)	旅游总收入占GDP比重(%)	衡量旅游产业在国民经济中的地位(-)	空气污染指数API	衡量旅游干扰导致的空气变化(-)
	社会犯罪率(%)	衡量系统安全(-)	旅游业增长弹性系数(%)	衡量旅游业在整个经济发展的健康程度(+)	人口密度(人/ km²)	衡量旅游干扰导致的土地承载力(-)
	失业率(%)	衡量系统稳定(-)	客源市场集中度(%)	衡量旅游市场状况(-)	降水量(mm)	衡量系统自然条件(-)
	人均居住面积(m²)	衡量系统社会效益(+)	生计多样性指数	衡量人们谋生手段是否多样化(+)	水位年变幅(m)	衡量水量生态安全(-)
	等级公路里程(km)	衡量系统基础设施(+)	产业结构\|多样化指数	衡量产业结构平衡问题(+)	废水排放量(×10⁴t)	衡量废水排放导致的生态压力(-)
	义务教育普及(%)	衡量系统学习能力(+)			耗电量(×10⁴kw/h)	衡量社会用电导致的生态压力(-)
	社会消费品零售总额(×10⁴元)	衡量系统消费能力(+)			全湖营养状态指数	衡量旅游干扰导致的水质生态安全(-)
应对能力指标	地方财政支出(×10⁴元)	衡量社会财政支出力度(+)	GDP(×10⁸元)	衡量经济总量(+)	三同时执行合格率(%)	衡量环保执法制度情况(+)
	教育支出(×10⁴元)	衡量教育扶持力度(+)	财政总收入(×10⁴元)	衡量地方政府经济实力(+)	污染源治理投资额(×10⁴元)	衡量污染治理投资力度(+)
	社会保障和就业支出(×10⁴元)	衡量社会稳定性和就业支持力度(+)	居民人均收入(元)	衡量居民收入水平(+)	生活污水处理率(%)	衡量污水处理情况(+)
	医疗卫生支出(×10⁴元)	衡量医疗支持力度(+)	社会固定资产投资完成额(×10⁸元)	衡量资本投资额度(+)	生活垃圾无害化处理率(%)	衡量固体废弃物处理情况(+)
	金融机构存款余额(×10⁴元)	衡量社会存储状况(+)			节能环保支出(×10⁴元)	衡量环境保护措施及新能源采用状况(+)

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