地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (5): 696-704.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201505002

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华中地区历史物候记录与1850-2008年的气温变化重建

郑景云1(), 刘洋1,2, 葛全胜1, 郝志新1()   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2014-12-29 修回日期:2015-02-24 出版日期:2015-05-20 发布日期:2015-06-11
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:郑景云(1966-), 男, 研究员, 主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail: zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA05090104);科技基础性工作专项项目(2011FY120300);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41430528)

Spring phenodate records derived from historical documents and reconstruction on temperature change in Central China during 1850-2008

Jingyun ZHENG1(), Yang LIU1,2, Quansheng GE1, Zhixin HAO1()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2014-12-29 Revised:2015-02-24 Online:2015-05-20 Published:2015-06-11
  • Supported by:
    The "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05090104;Basic Research Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2011FY120300;Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41430528

摘要:

根据历史日记中的华中地区春季植物物候、清代档案中的湖南4地降雪日数记载和区内5个树轮宽度年表,以及植物物候期、雪日观测记录等代用资料;以器测的华中整个地区的逐年气温距平为校准序列,采用逐步回归方法,结合逐一剔除法验证和方差匹配技术,重建了1850-2008年华中地区年均气温变化序列。结果表明:① 自1850年以来,华中地区气温变化以年际至年代尺度波动为主要特征;但至1990年以后则迅速增暖,并超出了原有的年代际波动水平;而1920s中期至1940s中期的温暖尽管也持续了20年,但其温暖程度显著低于1990s-2000s。其间,最寒冷年代则分别出现在1860s、1890s及1950s,最寒冷的年份为1893年。② 华中地区1850年以来的气温年代际波动周期为10~20年和准35年,其中1920s以前主要为12~14年,但自1940s开始则转为18~20年以及准35年。

关键词: 春季物候, 代用资料, 气温序列重建, 华中, 1850-2008年

Abstract:

To reconstruct the series of annual temperature in Central China from 1850 to 2008, we have applied the following data, including the phenodate data series of plants in spring derived from historical records, the data related to snowfall days in 4 sites of Hunan province derived from Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun in the archives of the Qing Dynasty, data from five tree-ring width chronologies. In the reconstruction, the instrumental observation data of annual temperature anomaly for the whole region was adopted as the calibrated series, and the stepwise regression was used for calibration with leave-one-out validation, together with variance matching. The results show that: (1) In Central China, temperature fluctuated at inter-annual and decadal scales since 1850, but increased rapidly after 1990, which exceeded the inter-annual and decadal variability before. Although the warm interval lasted 20 years from the mid-1920s to the mid-1940s, its warmth could not match with that of the 1990s-2000s. The coldest decades are the 1860s, 1890s and 1950s, while 1893 witnessed the lowest temperature. (2) There were decadal cycles of 10-20 years and 35 years in temperature variation in Central China, which contained a cycle of 12-14 years before the 1920s and cycles of 18-20 years and 35-years after the 1940s.

Key words: phenodate in spring, proxy data, reconstruction on temperature change, Central China, 1850-2008