地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (3): 420-430.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201503006

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山西降水与ENSO的相关性研究

李芬1(), 张建新2, 郝智文3, 武永利4, 周晋红5   

  1. 1. 山西省气象服务中心,太原 030002
    2. 山西省气象决策服务中心,太原 030006
    3. 山西省气象科学研究所,太原 030002
    4. 山西省气候中心,太原 030006
    5. 太原市气象局,太原 030002
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-30 修回日期:2015-01-27 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-06-14
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李芬(1964-), 女, 山西汾阳人, 硕士, 高级工程师, 主要从事全球变化与区域气候变化研究。E-mail: lifen1964@sina.com

  • 基金资助:
    山西省气象科研项目(SXKYBQH20147828);山西省自然科学基金(2013011038-2);山西省科技攻关项目(20130312012)

Correlation analysis of rainfall and ENSO in Shanxi

Fen LI1(), Jianxin ZHANG2, Zhiwen HAO3, Yongli WU4, Jinhong ZHOU5   

  1. 1. Shanxi Meteorological Service Center, Taiyuan 030002, China
    2. Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision-making, Taiyuan 030006, China
    3. Shanxi Province Meteorological Science Research Institute, Taiyuan 030002, China
    4. Shanxi Climate Center, Taiyuan 030006, China
    5. Taiyuan Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan 030002, China
  • Received:2014-10-30 Revised:2015-01-27 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-06-14
  • Supported by:
    Shanxi Meteorological Scientific Research Project, No.SXKYBQH20147828;Natural Science Fund of Shanxi Province, No.2013011038-2;Shanxi Science and Technology Key Project, No.20130312012

摘要:

基于山西38个测站1958-2013年的逐月降水资料、CPC南方涛动指数、NOAA逐月太平洋海温等资料,应用趋势分析和相关分析等统计方法分析了近56年山西年及四季降水对ENSO事件的响应。结果表明:① La Nina年,山西年降水、秋、冬季降水易偏多,春、夏季易偏少;El Nino年,春季降水易偏多,年降水、夏、秋和冬季易减少。La Nina次年,冬季降水易偏多,年降水、春、夏和秋季易偏少;El Nino次年,年降水、春、夏季降水易偏多,秋、冬季易偏少。② 山西年降水与上年太平洋海温在Nino 3, 4区存在小区域的正相关,上年对应海域海温偏高(低),年降水易偏多(少),与同期太平洋海温在Nino 3区存在负相关,对应海域海温偏高(低),年降水易偏少(多);春季降水与前期冬季(同期)太平洋海温在Nino 3, 4(Nino C)区存在正相关;夏季降水与前期春季(同期)太平洋海温在Nino 3区存在负相关;秋季降水与前期夏季(同期)太平洋海温在Nino C(Nino 3和Nino C)区存在负相关区;冬季降水与前期秋季(同期)太平洋海温在Nino 3, 4(Nino C)区存在大面积负相关。③ SOI与山西大部分地区的降水趋势指数为显著负相关,中西部、东北部局部地区相关系数达-0.5以上,SOI为正(负)值时,上述地区月降水易偏少(多);SOI与东北部滞后1个月的降水趋势指数有相关系数达-0.45以上的负相关区域;SOI与滞后2(3)个月的降水趋势指数的相关分析表明,不同区域对SOI变化的响应不同,相关系数分别为-0.38~0.29和-0.43~0.22。

关键词: 降水, ENSO, SST, SOI, 相关分析, 山西

Abstract:

Based on the monthly rainfall data, the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the monthly Pacific SST (Sea Surface Temperature) of NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) at 38 meteorological stations in Shanxi, trend analysis and correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the response of the seasonal rainfall during recent 56 years to ENSO events in this province. The results are shown as follows: (1) In La Nina years, the annual, autumn and winter rainfall had increasing trends, while the spring and summer rainfall decreased. In El Nino years, the spring rainfall had increasing trends, but the annual, summer, autumn and winter rainfall decreased. In the year after a La Nina event, the winter rainfall would increase, but the annual, spring, summer and autumn rainfall decreased. (2) The annual rainfall showed that there was a positive correlation between Pacific SST of the previous year in Nino 3 and 4 regions and annual rainfall in Shanxi. If Pacific SST of the previous year was higher (or lower), the rainfall in Shanxi would be correspondingly more (or less) than that in a normal year. The annual rainfall was negatively correlated to Pacific SST of the same year in Nino 3 region. If Pacific SST of a year is higher (or lower), the annual rainfall in Shanxi would be less (or more) than that in a normal year. (3) SOI was significantly and negatively correlated to the rainfall trend index of most parts of Shanxi province. The correlation coefficients in some parts of the central-western and eastern-northern Shanx were over -0.5, and the monthly rainfall of these areas would be less (or more) if SOI was positive (or negative).

Key words: rainfall, ENSO, SST, SOI, correlation analysis, Shanxi