中国降水非均匀性综合评价

doi:10.11821/dlxb201503004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究经过对比各种降水非均匀性研究方法后,选择降水集中度作为降水非均匀性研究方法,结合正态分布函数、累积频率和百分位法,确定降水非均匀性等级评价指标,分析了1960-2013年中国降水非均匀性等级时空变化特征,并进行综合评价。研究结果表明：① 结合正态分布函数、累积频率和百分位法,确定降水非均匀性等级评价指标,划分为7个等级：高度集中、中度集中、轻度集中、正常、轻度分散、中度分散和高度分散。② 近54年来,中国降水年内分配趋于正常或分散的区域有所增加。

关键词: 非均匀性, 降水集中度, 评价指标, 综合评价, 中国

Abstract:

Through comparisons of various methods, the method of precipitation concentration degree (PCD) was used to study precipitation heterogeneity. In addition to PCD, normal distribution functions, cumulative frequencies, and percentiles were used to establish a graded evaluation index of precipitation heterogeneity. A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation heterogeneity and its spatiotemporal variation in China in 1960-2013 were analyzed. Results indicated that: (1) seven categories of precipitation heterogeneity could be identified: high centralization, moderate centralization, mild centralization, normal, mild dispersion, moderate dispersion, and high dispersion; (2) during the study period, the precipitation in more parts of China tended to be normal or dispersed, which is beneficial to human activities.

Key words: heterogeneity, precipitation concentration degree, evaluation index, comprehensive evaluation, China

刘永林, 延军平, 岑敏仪. 中国降水非均匀性综合评价[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(3): 392-406.

Yonglin LIU, Junping YAN, Minyi CEN. Comprehensive evaluation of precipitation heterogeneity in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(3): 392-406.

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大区名称	省级行政区
西北地区	陕西省、甘肃省、宁夏回族自治区、青海省、新疆维吾尔自治区
华北地区	山西省、河北省、北京市、天津市
内蒙古地区	内蒙古自治区
东北地区	辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省
华东地区	山东省、河南省、湖北省、安徽省、江苏省、上海市
江南地区	湖南省、山西省、福建省、浙江省
华南地区	广西壮族自治区、广东省、海南省、香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区、台湾省
西南地区	四川省、重庆市、云南省、贵州省
西藏地区	西藏自治区

等级	类型	Z指数	发生频率	累积频率(%)
1	极涝	Z>1.645	5	100
2	大涝	1.037<Z≤1.645	10	95
3	偏涝	0.842<Z≤1.037	15	80
4	正常	-0.842≤Z≤0.842	40	70
5	偏旱	-1.037≤Z<-0.842	15	30
6	大旱	-1.645≤Z<-1.037	10	15
7	极旱	Z<-1.645	5	5

气候阶段	偏度系数	峰度系数	气候阶段	偏度系数	峰度系数
1960-1989	-0.426	-0.282	1973-2002	-0.419	-0.284
1961-1990	-0.419	-0.301	1974-2003	-0.416	-0.281
1962-1991	-0.424	-0.264	1975-2004	-0.424	-0.246
1963-1992	-0.414	-0.267	1976-2005	-0.446	-0.218
1964-1993	-0.398	-0.294	1977-2006	-0.453	-0.222
1965-1994	-0.396	-0.318	1978-2007	-0.450	-0.206
1966-1995	-0.410	-0.292	1979-2008	-0.447	-0.196
1967-1996	-0.405	-0.268	1980-2009	-0.439	-0.224
1968-1997	-0.405	-0.285	1981-2010	-0.441	-0.228
1969-1998	-0.420	-0.292	1982-2011	-0.443	-0.204
1970-1999	-0.424	-0.259	1983-2012	-0.450	-0.193
1971-2000	-0.428	-0.253	1984-2013	-0.446	-0.213
1972-2001	-0.439	-0.254

转换方法	平方	立方	平方根	立方根	倒数	对数	反正弦	平方根反正弦	Z指数
偏度系数	0.24	0.81	-0.92	-1.15	87.16	-1.91	-0.07	-0.39	-0.10
峰度系数	-0.47	0.60	0.98	1.97	9640.34	8.03	-0.18	0.16	-0.40

气候阶段	5%	15%	30%	70%	85%	95%
1960-1989	0.275	0.390	0.482	0.654	0.729	0.806
1961-1990	0.269	0.385	0.477	0.651	0.725	0.804
1962-1991	0.272	0.388	0.479	0.652	0.726	0.804
1963-1992	0.272	0.386	0.478	0.650	0.724	0.802
1964-1993	0.271	0.385	0.477	0.648	0.723	0.800
1965-1994	0.268	0.383	0.475	0.648	0.723	0.802
1966-1995	0.273	0.387	0.479	0.651	0.725	0.803
1967-1996	0.273	0.387	0.479	0.651	0.725	0.803
1968-1997	0.270	0.385	0.478	0.651	0.725	0.804
1969-1998	0.270	0.385	0.477	0.650	0.725	0.803
1970-1999	0.271	0.386	0.478	0.650	0.724	0.803
1971-2000	0.268	0.383	0.476	0.649	0.723	0.802
1972-2001	0.266	0.382	0.474	0.648	0.723	0.802
1973-2002	0.269	0.385	0.477	0.649	0.723	0.801
1974-2003	0.269	0.383	0.475	0.648	0.722	0.800
1975-2004	0.271	0.384	0.475	0.647	0.720	0.798
1976-2005	0.272	0.386	0.477	0.647	0.720	0.799
1977-2006	0.271	0.384	0.475	0.646	0.719	0.798
1978-2007	0.271	0.384	0.475	0.646	0.719	0.797
1979-2008	0.271	0.383	0.474	0.645	0.718	0.796
1980-2009	0.269	0.382	0.472	0.643	0.717	0.795
1981-2010	0.267	0.381	0.471	0.642	0.716	0.794
1982-2011	0.269	0.382	0.471	0.642	0.715	0.793
1983-2012	0.268	0.381	0.471	0.641	0.714	0.793
1984-2013	0.267	0.381	0.472	0.643	0.717	0.795
均值	0.270	0.384	0.476	0.647	0.721	0.800
标准差	0.002	0.002	0.003	0.003	0.004	0.004