1961-2010年中国十大流域水分盈亏量时空变化特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb201503003

地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (3): 380-391.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201503003

1961-2010年中国十大流域水分盈亏量时空变化特征

高歌^1,²(), 许崇育³

1. 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室国家气候中心,北京 100081
2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044
3. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程国家重点实验室,武汉 430072

收稿日期:2014-09-16 修回日期:2015-01-04 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-03-20
作者简介:
作者简介：高歌(1972-), 女, 正研级高工, 主要从事气象灾害评估及气候影响评价工作。E-mail: gaoge@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB955903);公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY201106018)

Characteristics of water surplus and deficit change in 10 major river basins in China during 1961-2010

Ge GAO^1,²(), Chongyu XU³

1. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Received:2014-09-16 Revised:2015-01-04 Published:2015-03-20 Online:2015-03-20
Supported by:
National Basic Research Program of China, No.2012CB955903;Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest, No.GYHY201106018

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用线性回归方法和Mann-Kendall方法对1961-2010年中国和十大流域水分盈亏量的气候及变化趋势特征进行分析,并对各流域年水分盈亏量变化成因进行探讨。结果表明：① 中国多年平均年水分盈亏量（1961-2010年平均）为负值,水分条件表现为亏缺。空间分布总体呈现南方盈余,向北向西水分亏缺态势。② 中国水分盈亏量月变化特征表现为夏季6-8月有盈余,7月盈余量最大;其余各月为亏缺,4月亏缺量最大,十大流域月变化特征各有不同。③ 1961-2010年,中国年水分亏缺量呈现多—少—多变化态势,1990s亏缺量为近50年来最少。2000s中国水分亏缺量较常年偏多,主要是由于大多数流域水分亏缺量偏多或盈余量偏少造成的。④ 近50年来,全国平均年和春夏冬三季水分盈亏量呈现增加趋势,秋季减少趋势显著。⑤ 松花江、辽河、海河、黄河流域及西南诸河年水分盈亏量呈现减少趋势,除西南诸河是由于年降水量增加速率小于蒸散量增加速率导致其减少趋势外,其它四个流域则是由于年降水量减少速率大于潜在蒸散量减少速率,年降水量减少变化趋势起主要作用;其余流域年水分盈亏量呈现增加趋势,淮河和长江流域主要是因为潜在蒸散量减少速率大于降水的减少速率,潜在蒸散量的减少变化趋势起主要作用,东南诸河、西北诸河、珠江流域由于年降水量增加、潜在蒸散量减少,二者均对水分盈亏量增加有利。

关键词: 水分盈亏, 十大流域, 变化趋势, 中国

Abstract:

In this paper, linear regression and Mann-Kendall methods are used to examine the climate trend characteristics of annual water surplus and deficit and their causes in the 10 major river basins over China during 1961-2010. The results showed that: (1) The mean annual water surplus and deficit in China during 1961-2010 was negative and the water condition was deficient. The spatial pattern of normal values shows surplus in the south and deficit in the north and west parts of China. (2) The normal monthly values of water surplus and deficit across China show surplus from June to August and deficit in other months. The most surplus was observed in July and the most deficit in April. Different monthly variations were found in each river basin. (3) Decadal variation of annual water surplus and deficit of China shows the feature of more-less-more than normal. The deficit of the 1990s was the least in the past 50 years. In the 2000s, the water deficits of China were more than normal, which was mainly caused by more deficit and less surplus in most of the river basins. (4) Annual, spring, summer and winter water surplus and deficit of China increased during 1961-2010 and the water condition became better, while it decreased significantly in autumn. (5) In the basins of Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River and river basins of Southwest China, the annual water surplus and deficit showed a decreasing trend. For the four major river basins, the decreasing rate of annual precipitation was greater than that of annual potential evapotranspiration, and the decreasing annual precipitation played a great role in these regions. But in river basins of Southwest China, the increasing rate of annual precipitation was less than that of annual potential evapotranspiration, which led to a reduction of water availability. In the Huaihe and Yangtze river basins, the decreasing rate of annual evapotranspiration was greater than that of annual precipitation, which resulted in an uptrend of annual water surplus and deficit. In river basins of Southeast China, Pearl River Basin and river basins of Northwest China, the increase in annual precipitation and decrease in annual evapotranspiration are both beneficial to water increase.

Key words: water surplus and deficit, 10 major river basins, trend, China

高歌, 许崇育. 1961-2010年中国十大流域水分盈亏量时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(3): 380-391.

Ge GAO, Chongyu XU. Characteristics of water surplus and deficit change in 10 major river basins in China during 1961-2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(3): 380-391.

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时段	流域名称	松花江	辽河	海河	黄河	淮河	长江	东南诸河	珠江	西南诸河	西北诸河	中国
春	L	6.7^*	7.6^*	4.7	-3.9	-2.9	-6.5	-6.6	1.6	9.3^*	3.9^*	0.4
	M	1.5	1.5	1.9	-0.6	0.1	-1.4	-0.8	-0.3	1.9	1.9	0.3
夏	L	-5.4	-7.5	-15.1	0.4	20.4	18.1^*	30.4^*	17.1	-9.8	6.4^*	7.7^*
	M	-0.6	-1.0	-2.1^*	0.1	1.6	2.1^*	2.4^*	0.9	-1.5	2.3^*	1.8
秋	L	-4.3	-2.0	0.6	-7.8	-9.3	-10.6	-1.5	-9.8	-2.1	3.1^*	-5.2
	M	-1.2	-0.9	0.5	-1.4	-1.2	-2.2^*	-0.1	-1.2	-0.3	2.7^*	-2.1^*
冬	L	1.2	0.9	0.6	0.7	5.5	4.9	8.8	3.5	-1.3	1.1^*	2.7
	M	1.5	0.7	0.4	0.7	1.6	1.7	1.0	0.4	-0.6	1.9	1.4
年	L	-1.2	-1.1	-9.5	-10.4	13.0	5.4	33.7	13.2	-6.0	14.2^*	5.7
	M	0.0	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	0.9	0.1	1.4	0.5	-0.7	3.1^*	1.1

要素	流域名称	松花江	辽河	海河	黄河	淮河	长江	东南诸河	珠江	西南诸河	西北诸河	中国
年降水量	L	-1.4	-8.7	-19.5	-11.0	-2.6	-1.4	29.9	7.1	0.7	6.4^*	0.3
年降水量	M	-0.3	-1.3	-1.7	-1.4	-0.2	-0.6	1.5	0.3	0.2	3.2^*	0.0
年潜在蒸散量	L	-0.2	-7.7	-10.0	-0.3	-15.3	-7.1	-3.0	-5.4	3.7	-7.9	-5.4
年潜在蒸散量	M	0.1	-1.8	-2.4^*	-0.5	-2.6^*	-2.2^*	-0.8	-1.2	1.0	-2.7^*	-2.7^*
年水分盈亏量	L	-1.2	-1.1	-9.5	-10.4	13.0	5.4	33.7	13.2	-6.0	14.2^*	5.7
年水分盈亏量	M	0.0	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	0.9	0.1	1.4	0.5	-0.7	3.1^*	1.1

1961-2010年中国十大流域水分盈亏量时空变化特征

Characteristics of water surplus and deficit change in 10 major river basins in China during 1961-2010

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