地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (3): 364-379.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201503002

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60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化

宁晓菊(), 秦耀辰(), 崔耀平, 李旭, 陈友民   

  1. 河南大学环境与规划学院 黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室 中原经济区“三化”协调发展河南省协同创新中心,开封 475004
  • 收稿日期:2014-09-30 修回日期:2014-11-17 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-06-14
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:宁晓菊(1987-), 女, 河南商丘人, 博士研究生, 主要从事区域可持续发展研究。E-mail: nxj0655@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2012CB955804);国家自然科学基金项目(41171438, 41401504)

The spatio-temporal change of agricultural hydrothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010

Xiaoju NING(), Yaochen QIN(), Yaoping CUI, Xu LI, Youmin CHEN   

  1. College of Environment and Planning, Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Henan Collaborative Innovation Center for Coordinating Industrialization Urbanization and Modernization in Center Economic Zone, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
  • Received:2014-09-30 Revised:2014-11-17 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-06-14
  • Supported by:
    National Basic Program of China (973 Program), No.2012CB955800;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41171438, No.41401504

摘要:

根据1951-2010年中国824个气象站点逐日观测数据选取与农作物生长密切相关的农业气候指标,按照年代将各指标站点数据空间化,求取前后期数据变化差值,分析中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化;进而对农业水热气候条件进行线性拟合,分析农业气候变化倾向。研究发现:60年来全国年平均气温、0 ℃积温和最冷月平均气温等值线均在不同程度上向北迁移,三者在全国大部分区域表现为显著增加趋势;全国最热月平均气温分成明显的下降和上升区,显著上升区集中在东北地区、内蒙古高原与东南沿海,黄河与长江中下游地区成为下降区;全国年降水量的增加趋势并没有通过显著检验。虽然对中国农业分布格局至关重要的400 mm等降水量线南段和800 mm等降水量线在整体上相对稳定,但是黄河与长江中下游地区最热月平均气温的下降趋势和最冷月平均气温等值线尤其是0 ℃等值线逐渐从秦岭—淮河一带北移到黄河一线,这对中国作物的分布、耕作制度等会产生重要影响。因此,高温、低温与农作物生长期热量供应以及水分的复杂变化对农业的影响将因区域差异与作物种类而变化,后续的研究可以考虑更多因素来分析农作物的适宜种植范围及区域农业对气候变化的适应。

关键词: 温度, 降水, 农业水热气候条件, 时空变化, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the daily observation data of 824 meteorological stations during 1951-2010 released by national meteorological information center, this paper evaluates the change of heat, moisture and winter conditions for crop growth. In this paper, we, taking the average over ten years as a value, analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the agricultural hydrothermal conditions in a 1-km grid. Then we build the regression equations of agricultural hydrothermal conditions to simulate the change trend over years. The main conclusions are summarized as follows. (1) The annual mean temperature, mean temperature in the coldest month and accumulated temperatures of the daily mean temperature ≥0℃ increased significantly for most parts of China, whose contours moved northward in the past 60 years. (2) The mean temperature in the hottest month can be identified into the falling region and rising region, the latter is distributed in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia Plateau and the coast of southeast China. The middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River belong to the region in a remarkable reduction. (3) The annual precipitation has an increasing trend, but it is inconspicuous. (4) The contours of 800 mm rainfall and the southern of 400mm rainfall were stable between 1951 and 2010, which determined the distribution pattern of agricultural production of China. However, the mean temperature in the hottest month of the middle and lower reaches of both the Yellow and Yangtze rivers had a decreasing trend from 1951 to 2010, and the contour of mean temperature in the coldest month shifted northward, in particular, the 0℃ contour gradually moved to the yellow line by the region of Qinling-Huaihe River. This had a major impact on the distribution of crops as well as on the farming system. Thus, the complex change of high temperature, low temperature, and heat supply in the crop growing period and water had impact on the agricultural production, which would change due to the regional differences and crop characteristics. We will study the suitable cultivation of crop in the background of global climate change by considering more factors and then explore the adaptability of regional agriculture to climate change.

Key words: temperature, precipitation, agricultural hydrothermal conditions, spatio-temporal change, China