地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (3): 364-379.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201503002
收稿日期:
2014-09-30
修回日期:
2014-11-17
出版日期:
2015-03-20
发布日期:
2015-03-20
作者简介:
作者简介:宁晓菊(1987-), 女, 河南商丘人, 博士研究生, 主要从事区域可持续发展研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Xiaoju NING(), Yaochen QIN(
), Yaoping CUI, Xu LI, Youmin CHEN
Received:
2014-09-30
Revised:
2014-11-17
Online:
2015-03-20
Published:
2015-03-20
Supported by:
摘要:
根据1951-2010年中国824个气象站点逐日观测数据选取与农作物生长密切相关的农业气候指标,按照年代将各指标站点数据空间化,求取前后期数据变化差值,分析中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化;进而对农业水热气候条件进行线性拟合,分析农业气候变化倾向。研究发现:60年来全国年平均气温、0 ℃积温和最冷月平均气温等值线均在不同程度上向北迁移,三者在全国大部分区域表现为显著增加趋势;全国最热月平均气温分成明显的下降和上升区,显著上升区集中在东北地区、内蒙古高原与东南沿海,黄河与长江中下游地区成为下降区;全国年降水量的增加趋势并没有通过显著检验。虽然对中国农业分布格局至关重要的400 mm等降水量线南段和800 mm等降水量线在整体上相对稳定,但是黄河与长江中下游地区最热月平均气温的下降趋势和最冷月平均气温等值线尤其是0 ℃等值线逐渐从秦岭—淮河一带北移到黄河一线,这对中国作物的分布、耕作制度等会产生重要影响。因此,高温、低温与农作物生长期热量供应以及水分的复杂变化对农业的影响将因区域差异与作物种类而变化,后续的研究可以考虑更多因素来分析农作物的适宜种植范围及区域农业对气候变化的适应。
宁晓菊, 秦耀辰, 崔耀平, 李旭, 陈友民. 60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(3): 364-379.
Xiaoju NING, Yaochen QIN, Yaoping CUI, Xu LI, Youmin CHEN. The spatio-temporal change of agricultural hydrothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(3): 364-379.
表1
农业水热气候条件插值结果的交叉检验精度表"
变量 | 检验标准 | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
年平均气温 | 预测误差均值 | 0.025 | 0.027 | 0.023 | 0.023 | 0.028 | 0.027 |
标准均方根预测误差 | 1.864 | 1.284 | 1.382 | 1.433 | 1.376 | 1.405 | |
最热月平均气温 | 预测误差均值 | 0.016 | 0.021 | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.016 | 0.017 |
标准均方根预测误差 | 1.293 | 1.486 | 1.378 | 1.505 | 1.225 | 1.306 | |
最冷月平均气温 | 预测误差均值 | 0.023 | 0.026 | 0.021 | 0.026 | 0.036 | 0.036 |
标准均方根预测误差 | 1.283 | 0.938 | 0.095 | 0.982 | 1.088 | 1.085 | |
0 ℃积温 | 预测误差均值 | 4.586 | 5.184 | 4.589 | 4.692 | 3.896 | 4.104 |
标准均方根预测误差 | 1.92 | 1.298 | 1.37 | 1.412 | 1.372 | 1.421 | |
年降水量 | 预测误差均值 | 3.679 | 1.726 | 0.704 | 2.4 | 2.008 | 2.07 |
标准均方根预测误差 | 1.834 | 1.44 | 1.406 | 1.496 | 1.341 | 1.268 |
表3
农业水热气候条件的变动幅度统计"
变量 | 变动幅度 | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
年平均气温 | 标准差 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
变异系数 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
最热月平均气温 | 标准差 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
变异系数 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
最冷月平均气温 | 标准差 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
变异系数 | -3.1 | -2.7 | -3.3 | -3.9 | -4.7 | -5.2 | |
0 ℃积温 | 标准差 | 1798 | 1795 | 1825 | 1814 | 1824 | 1831 |
变异系数 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
年降水量 | 标准差 | 545.5 | 527 | 550 | 541 | 572.3 | 529 |
变异系数 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
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