60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化

doi:10.11821/dlxb201503002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据1951-2010年中国824个气象站点逐日观测数据选取与农作物生长密切相关的农业气候指标,按照年代将各指标站点数据空间化,求取前后期数据变化差值,分析中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化;进而对农业水热气候条件进行线性拟合,分析农业气候变化倾向。研究发现：60年来全国年平均气温、0 ℃积温和最冷月平均气温等值线均在不同程度上向北迁移,三者在全国大部分区域表现为显著增加趋势;全国最热月平均气温分成明显的下降和上升区,显著上升区集中在东北地区、内蒙古高原与东南沿海,黄河与长江中下游地区成为下降区;全国年降水量的增加趋势并没有通过显著检验。虽然对中国农业分布格局至关重要的400 mm等降水量线南段和800 mm等降水量线在整体上相对稳定,但是黄河与长江中下游地区最热月平均气温的下降趋势和最冷月平均气温等值线尤其是0 ℃等值线逐渐从秦岭—淮河一带北移到黄河一线,这对中国作物的分布、耕作制度等会产生重要影响。因此,高温、低温与农作物生长期热量供应以及水分的复杂变化对农业的影响将因区域差异与作物种类而变化,后续的研究可以考虑更多因素来分析农作物的适宜种植范围及区域农业对气候变化的适应。

关键词: 温度, 降水, 农业水热气候条件, 时空变化, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the daily observation data of 824 meteorological stations during 1951-2010 released by national meteorological information center, this paper evaluates the change of heat, moisture and winter conditions for crop growth. In this paper, we, taking the average over ten years as a value, analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the agricultural hydrothermal conditions in a 1-km grid. Then we build the regression equations of agricultural hydrothermal conditions to simulate the change trend over years. The main conclusions are summarized as follows. (1) The annual mean temperature, mean temperature in the coldest month and accumulated temperatures of the daily mean temperature ≥0℃ increased significantly for most parts of China, whose contours moved northward in the past 60 years. (2) The mean temperature in the hottest month can be identified into the falling region and rising region, the latter is distributed in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia Plateau and the coast of southeast China. The middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River belong to the region in a remarkable reduction. (3) The annual precipitation has an increasing trend, but it is inconspicuous. (4) The contours of 800 mm rainfall and the southern of 400mm rainfall were stable between 1951 and 2010, which determined the distribution pattern of agricultural production of China. However, the mean temperature in the hottest month of the middle and lower reaches of both the Yellow and Yangtze rivers had a decreasing trend from 1951 to 2010, and the contour of mean temperature in the coldest month shifted northward, in particular, the 0℃ contour gradually moved to the yellow line by the region of Qinling-Huaihe River. This had a major impact on the distribution of crops as well as on the farming system. Thus, the complex change of high temperature, low temperature, and heat supply in the crop growing period and water had impact on the agricultural production, which would change due to the regional differences and crop characteristics. We will study the suitable cultivation of crop in the background of global climate change by considering more factors and then explore the adaptability of regional agriculture to climate change.

Key words: temperature, precipitation, agricultural hydrothermal conditions, spatio-temporal change, China

宁晓菊, 秦耀辰, 崔耀平, 李旭, 陈友民. 60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(3): 364-379.

Xiaoju NING, Yaochen QIN, Yaoping CUI, Xu LI, Youmin CHEN. The spatio-temporal change of agricultural hydrothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(3): 364-379.

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变量	检验标准	1950s	1960s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000s
年平均气温	预测误差均值	0.025	0.027	0.023	0.023	0.028	0.027
年平均气温	标准均方根预测误差	1.864	1.284	1.382	1.433	1.376	1.405
最热月平均气温	预测误差均值	0.016	0.021	0.019	0.020	0.016	0.017
最热月平均气温	标准均方根预测误差	1.293	1.486	1.378	1.505	1.225	1.306
最冷月平均气温	预测误差均值	0.023	0.026	0.021	0.026	0.036	0.036
最冷月平均气温	标准均方根预测误差	1.283	0.938	0.095	0.982	1.088	1.085
0 ℃积温	预测误差均值	4.586	5.184	4.589	4.692	3.896	4.104
0 ℃积温	标准均方根预测误差	1.92	1.298	1.37	1.412	1.372	1.421
年降水量	预测误差均值	3.679	1.726	0.704	2.4	2.008	2.07
年降水量	标准均方根预测误差	1.834	1.44	1.406	1.496	1.341	1.268

倾向值	年平均气温	最热月平均气温	0 ℃积温	最冷月平均气温	年降水量
预测误差均值	0.003	-0.011	0.000	-0.001	-0.002
标准均方根预测误差	0.936	1.05	0.979	0.955	0.938

变量	变动幅度	1950s	1960s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000s
年平均气温	标准差	6.7	6.7	6.7	6.6	6.5	6.5
年平均气温	变异系数	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5
最热月平均气温	标准差	4.9	5.1	5.1	5.0	4.9	4.8
最热月平均气温	变异系数	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
最冷月平均气温	标准差	10.6	10.1	10.2	10.2	10.1	10.1
最冷月平均气温	变异系数	-3.1	-2.7	-3.3	-3.9	-4.7	-5.2
0 ℃积温	标准差	1798	1795	1825	1814	1824	1831
0 ℃积温	变异系数	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4
年降水量	标准差	545.5	527	550	541	572.3	529
年降水量	变异系数	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.6