过去2000年亚洲气候变化（PAGES-Asia2k）集成研究进展及展望

doi:10.11821/dlxb201503001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

介绍了国际过去全球变化研究计划（PAGES）过去2000年气候变化研究网络的设立背景、研究目的及亚洲在其中的独特性;总结了过去2000年亚洲气候变化（PAGES-Asia2k）集成研究的主要进展及中国的贡献,分析了当前在亚洲区域开展该项研究的主要问题及难点,并对未来研究进行了展望。亚洲历史悠久,高分辨率的代用资料丰富,是开展过去2000年气候变化研究的理想区域,但目前尚处于起步阶段。已有进展表明：在过去1200年中,亚洲830-1220年相对温暖,1340-1880年明显寒冷,20世纪则快速增暖;但亚洲气候类型多、变化过程复杂、区域差异大。因此,发展气候序列重建的新技术方法,提高重建序列的时、空分辨率、空间覆盖度和重建结果的精度,建立亚洲过去2000年气候代用资料数据库,集成重建过去2000年区域温度变化序列及干湿变化空间型,进而开展区域气候变化驱动机制与气候变化影响及适应研究,是该计划下一步的研究重点。

关键词: 气候变化, 集成研究, 过去2000年, 亚洲

Abstract:

The established background and goals of the last 2 millennia climate research network, past global changes (PAGES2K) were introduced, and the distinctive significance of Asia2k in PAGES project was expounded. The main research progresses from PAGES-Asia2k working group and contributions of China to the synthetic climate reconstructions of the last 2000 years were also addressed in this paper. In addition, we analyzed the challenge and key issues during the studies on climate reconstructions over Asia, and discussed the research activities in the future work. Asia is an ideal area to conduct synthesis studies on the climate changes for the past 2000 years due to its long history and abundant proxy types with a high time-resolution; however, at present, the related research work is still in its infancy. The recent progresses showed that during the past 1200 years there was a warmer period (830-1220), a colder period (1340-1880), and a rapid warming period (the 20th century). However, the climate of Asia is characterized by various types, complicated process changing and large regional differences. Thus, the future work of this project will focus on the following topics: developing the new methodologies for climate change reconstructions to improve the reliabilities of reconstructed results in individual sites (regions) and the temporal-spatial resolutions, data coverage for the whole continent; developing the PAGES-Asia2k proxy climate database for synthesis study to reconstruct the regional temperature series and spatial patterns of wet and dry changes; furthermore, studying the mechanism and impact of climate change and its adaptation at regional scale.

Key words: climate changes, synthesis study, the past 2000 years, Asia

葛全胜, 郑景云, 郝志新. 过去2000年亚洲气候变化（PAGES-Asia2k）集成研究进展及展望[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(3): 355-363.

Quansheng GE, Jingyun ZHENG, Zhixin HAO. PAGES synthesis study on climate changes in Asia over the last 2000 years: Progresses and perspectives[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(3): 355-363.

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国家	中国	巴基斯坦	蒙古	俄罗斯	尼泊尔	不丹	日本	吉尔吉斯斯坦	其他	合计
年表数量	73	33	28	26	16	13	13	12	15	229
>1000年的年表	19	6	2	0	1	0	1	2	0	31