城市经济脆弱性模拟评估系统的构建及其应用

doi:10.11821/dlxb201502008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

经济脆弱性评价是风险评估的重要步骤和制定有效防灾减灾规划的前提条件,是应急管理和灾后恢复的重要依据。本文提出了一个微观尺度的城市经济脆弱性评估模型,从各类企业的空间布局及其行业经济特征入手,综合考虑企业属性、产业易损性、产业重要性、经济密度等因素,并在此基础上构建了城市经济脆弱性模拟评估系统,以北京市海淀区为案例区对上述模型方法进行了检验。结果表明,城市经济脆弱性评估方法及系统的构建有利于决策者准确把握城市经济脆弱性的分布状况,甄别风险地区和确定风险级别,为城市灾害风险管理提供了可靠依据。系统的运行取得了良好的效果,在辅助决策方面有很好的应用前景,也为城市灾害管理的信息化提供了有益的探索。

关键词: 经济脆弱性, 评估方法, 模拟评估系统, 海淀区

Abstract:

Cities in China face high and rapidly increasing exposure to disaster risk, calling for effective countermeasures. Reducing disaster vulnerability is a direct and effective way to reduce disaster risk, which requires first and foremost the identification and assessment of vulnerabilities of societies, economies, etc. Economic vulnerability assessment is a significant step in risk evaluation, a prerequisite for effective disaster prevention planning and an important base for emergency management and recovery plan. This paper develops a model for the economic vulnerability assessment, which takes into account of scale of enterprises, vulnerability of industrial sectors, importance of industrial sectors and economic density. Based on the economic vulnerability assessment model, this paper develops an urban economic vulnerability evaluation system, and conducts a case study of Haidian District in Beijing using this system. According to the results, we can identify how many and which blocks are at the level of high and very high economic vulnerability, which can provide useful and practical information for pre-disaster prevention planning, emergency response and recovery plan. Therefore, this evaluation system proves to be effective for economic vulnerability assessment. The economic vulnerability assessment model and the establishment of economic vulnerability assessment system in this paper make it possible for the government to quickly evaluate the economic vulnerability and identify the spatial distribution of vulnerable areas, in all, they are useful explorations into the construction of disaster management information system and will have good application prospects in the area of decision support.

Key words: economic vulnerability, assessment model, evaluation system, Haidian District

袁海红, 牛方曲, 高晓路. 城市经济脆弱性模拟评估系统的构建及其应用[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(2): 271-282.

Haihong YUAN, Fangqu NIU, Xiaolu GAO. Establishment and application of an urban economic vulnerability evaluation system[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(2): 271-282.

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产业易损性影响因素	作用机理
投入要素（劳动力、资本、设备、原材料等）供给不足或者损坏造成的损失	高学历、高技术等级员工的比例越高、生产设备价值及专业化程度越高、中间(原材料)投入率越高、资本需求越高的产业一旦遭受灾害,直接损失可能越大,投入要素的替代性也越低,因此造成生产停滞的可能性越大。
生命线系统（交通、电力、供水等）破坏造成的损失	越依赖于交通、电力和供水的产业越脆弱,运输量、电力和水消耗越大的企业因生命线系统破坏遭受的损失可能越大。
产业链（供需链、空间链）中断造成的损失	垂直一体化程度越高的产业,由于内部交易,有专业供应商,可替代性差,越有可能因为其中一部分供应中断而破坏整个生产过程造成损失。后向联系效应(该产业对上游产业的需求)较大的产业,任一上游产业的中断,都会对它造成影响,对上游产业需求大使得该产业更容易遭受损失。
产业本地集中程度	产业的本地集中程度越大,产业在这个地区所占的比例越高,总暴露越大,越容易受到影响

行业类型	平均得分	行业类型	平均得分
核燃料加工	6.27	化学原料及化学制品制造业	5.14
核辐射加工	6.21	电力生产	5.09
燃气生产和供应业	5.7	专用化学产品制造	4.89
电力供应	5.51	精炼石油产品的制造	4.86
石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业	5.34	石油和天然气开采业	4.83
水的生产和供应业	5.2	生物、生化制品的制造	4.78

行业类型	平均得分	行业类型	平均得分
医院	6.61	燃气生产和供应业	5.96
水的生产和供应业	6.49	电信	5.73
疾病预防控制及防疫活动	6.38	互联网信息服务	5.51
电力供应	6.32	铁路旅客运输	5.45
卫生院及社区医疗活动	6.07	城市公共交通业	5.39
电力生产	5.96	道路货物运输	5.34

脆弱性	街区数	所占比例（%）	面积比例（%）
较低	330	51	73.1
中等	214	33.07	21.97
较高	65	10.04	3.71
很高	38	5.87	1.2