地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (2): 234-247.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201502005

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中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征

方创琳1, 王岩1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-06 修回日期:2014-12-24 出版日期:2015-02-20 发布日期:2015-06-17
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:方创琳(1966-), 男, 甘肃庆阳人, 博士, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事城市发展与城市规划等研究。

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41371177)

A comprehensive assessment of urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation in China

Chuanglin FANG1, Yan WANG1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2013-12-06 Revised:2014-12-24 Online:2015-02-20 Published:2015-06-17
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41371177

摘要:

城市脆弱性是指城市在发展过程中抵抗资源、生态环境、经济、社会发展等内外部自然要素和人为要素干扰的应对能力。当这种抗干扰的应对能力低于某一临界阈值时,城市即进入脆弱状态。城市脆弱性是城市资源脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性和社会脆弱性的综合体现。城市脆弱性的评价与调控研究对提升中国城镇化质量、实现可持续发展具有重要意义。采用系统分析方法和综合指数评价法,从资源、生态环境、经济和社会4个方面确定10项分指数、选取36个具体指标,构建了中国城市脆弱性综合测度指标体系,并确定测度标准值,对中国地级以上城市脆弱性及其空间分异做了总体评价。研究表明,中国城市脆弱性呈现明显的“级差化”分异特征,总体处于中度脆弱状态。按照这种差异,将中国城市脆弱程度划分为低度脆弱、较低脆弱、中度脆弱、较高脆弱和高度脆弱5个级别。城市脆弱性呈现显著的“梯度化”和“集群化”空间分异,东部地区城市脆弱性明显低于中西部地区,城市群地区脆弱性低于其它地区。城市脆弱性与城市规模存在一定的对应关系,规模越大的城市脆弱性相对越小。资源型城市脆弱性明显高于综合性城市,职能综合性强的城市脆弱性相对较低。城市经济增长的快慢不能反映城市脆弱性的高低,经济高速增长并不意味着城市脆弱性就低。如何科学测度城市综合脆弱性,如何应对和降低城市脆弱性,是本研究试图回答的问题。该研究为丰富城市脆弱性与城市可持续发展理论,为解决快速城市化、工业化进程中的城市资源枯竭、生态环境破坏、经济增长方式的转变及系列社会问题等提供科学依据。

关键词: 城市脆弱性, 综合测度, 空间分异, 可持续发展, 中国

Abstract:

Urban vulnerability refers to the coping capacity necessary to resist disturbances from various internal or external natural factors and human factors, such as available resources, ecological environmental systems, economic and social development, during an urban development process. A city that has an anti-disturbance capacity below a certain threshold level is considered vulnerable. The concept of urban vulnerability comprehensively reflects urban resource vulnerability, eco-environmental vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and social vulnerability. Research on the assessment and regulatory control of urban vulnerability is of great significance for both urbanization quality improvement and sustainable development in China. In this study, using systematic analyses combined with a comprehensive index assessment method, we selected 10 subindexes involving 36 specific parameters from four aspects (resources, eco-environmental systems, economics, and social development) to construct a comprehensive index system for the assessment of China's urban vulnerability. In addition, the standard values of measurements were established and used to evaluate overall urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation among cities at the prefecture level and above in China. This study revealed that China's urban vulnerability demonstrates a "grade-difference" based differentiation and overall vulnerability is moderate. The differences in the extent of China's urban vulnerability were divided into five grades: low vulnerability, relatively low vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, relatively high vulnerability, and high vulnerability. Urban vulnerability has a remarkable spatial differentiation of both "gradient distribution" and "clustered distribution", as demonstrated by the facts that cities in eastern China are significantly less vulnerable than those in the central and western regions and the cities with low vulnerability are distributed in the form of agglomeration, which fits the urban agglomerations in China well. The extent of urban vulnerability corresponds to city size, and the bigger the city, the lower its vulnerability. Resource-based cities are more vulnerable than comprehensive cities, and cities with higher functional comprehensiveness have relatively low vulnerability. In addition, a city's economic growth rate does not reflect the extent of its urban vulnerability; in other words, high-speed economic growth does not necessarily indicate low urban vulnerability. The purpose of this study was to address how to scientifically assess overall urban vulnerability and how to effectively cope with and reduce urban vulnerability. This study provides scientific evidence to enrich our understanding of urban vulnerability and sustainable development and to solve problems such as resource exhaustion, eco-environmental disruption, the transformation of economic growth mechanisms, and a series of other social issues that arise during urbanization and industrialization.

Key words: urban vulnerability, comprehensive measurement, spatial differentiation, sustainable development, China