地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (12): 1799-1809.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201412006

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中国城镇化与经济增长及用水变化的时空耦合关系

鲍超1,2()   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-22 修回日期:2014-06-24 出版日期:2014-12-25 发布日期:2015-01-24
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:鲍超 (1978-), 男, 湖北麻城人, 博士, 副研究员, 硕士生导师, 中国地理学会会员 (S110006966M), 主要从事城镇化与城市可持续发展研究。E-mail: baoc@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目 (13&ZD027);国家自然科学基金项目 (41101538)

Spatio-temporal coupling relationships among urbanization,economic growth and water use change in China

Chao BAO1,2()   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China
    2.Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101,China
  • Received:2014-01-22 Revised:2014-06-24 Online:2014-12-25 Published:2015-01-24
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Foundation of China, No.13&ZD027;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41101538

摘要:

中国的快速城镇化进程伴随着经济总量与用水总量的持续增长以及严重的城市缺水危机,然而三者之间的定量关系及内在机理尚不完全清楚。本文构建了城镇化驱动经济与用水增长的完全分解模型,定量测度了中国以及31个省级行政区1997-2011年城镇化过程对经济增长与用水变化的驱动效应。结果表明:① 中国城镇化对经济增长的综合贡献率长期稳定在30%左右,经济增长60%以上依赖于生产效率的提高,因此应适当弱化“城镇化是经济增长主要动力”的理念;② 中国城镇化虽然通过拉动经济增长增加用水2352×108 m3,但通过优化产业结构和提高用水经济效率减少用水4530×108 m3,中国用水增长的原因是由于人口和经济规模效应而不是城镇化效应;③ 中国东中部的人口和经济大省且处于城镇化加速阶段的,城镇化拉动经济并造成用水增长的作用大,但减量效应也大,而且均呈逐年增长趋势,最终城镇化对用水的综合驱动以减量效应为主,而且在时空变化上的差异相对缩小;④ 城镇化虽有助于减少全国或较大范围区域的用水总量,但会导致城镇建成区或城市群地区的缺水危机,因此应尽快建立并完善城乡之间 (或城镇化水平较高与较低地区之间) 的水资源流转机制与补偿机制。

关键词: 城镇化, 经济增长, 水资源利用, 时空耦合, 完全分解模型, 省际差异, 中国, urbanization, economic growth, water resources utilization, spatio-temporal coupling, complete decomposition model, differences among provinces

Abstract:

China's rapid urbanization is accompanied by a continuous growth of economy and water use, and also a severe urban water crisis. However, the quantitative relationships and the interaction mechanisms among urbanization, economic growth and water use change are still unclear. To measure the exact driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change, a complete decomposition model was established, and was applied in China and its 31 provincial administrative regions from 1997 to 2011. Results show that: (1) China's urbanization contributed about 30% of economic growth every year. More than 60% of economic growth relied on the increase of production efficiency. Therefore, such idea that urbanization is the engine or major driving force of economic growth may be properly weakened. (2) China's urbanization increased 2352×108βm3 of water use by intensifying the economic aggregate. However, it decreased 4530×108βm3 of water use by optimizing the industrial structure and improving the water use efficiency. Therefore, urbanization did not lead to water use growth. The cause for China's water use growth was the increase of population and economy. (3) In those provinces which are located in the eastern and central China, have large population and economy, and step into a period of accelerating urbanization, urbanization generally made great contribution to economic and water use growth. At the same time, it also had great contribution to industrial restructuring and water use efficiency improvement, and then largely decreased water use. In total, water use was decreased by urbanization in most provinces, and the spatio-temporal differences among them were lessened. (4) Although urbanization helps to decrease water use for China or a large region, it may cause water crisis in urban built-up areas or urban agglomerations. Therefore, the transfer and compensation mechanisms of water resoureces should be constructed as soon as possible between urban and rural areas, or low and high density urban areas.