地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (9): 1248-1258.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201409001

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过去2000年中国气候变化研究的新进展

葛全胜1, 郑景云1, 郝志新1, 张学珍1, 方修琦2,1, 王欢3,1, 闫军辉4,1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室, 北京 100101
    2. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院, 北京 100875
    3. 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044
    4. 信阳师范学院城市与环境学院, 信阳 464000
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-12 修回日期:2014-06-09 出版日期:2014-09-17 发布日期:2014-11-19
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:葛全胜 (1963-), 男, 安徽安庆人, 研究员, 中国地理学会会员 (S110000942M), 从事全球变化研究。

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划项目 (2010CB950100);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目 (XDA05080100);科技基础性工作专项项目 (2011FY120300);China Global Change Research Program, No.2010CB950100;The "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05080100;Basic Research Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2011FY120300

State-of-the-arts in the study of climate changes over China for the past 2000 years

Quansheng GE1, Jingyun ZHENG1, Zhixin HAO1, Xuezhen ZHANG1, Xiuqi FANG2,1, Huan WANG3,1, Junhui YAN4,1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    3. Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    4. The College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, Henan, China
  • Received:2014-05-12 Revised:2014-06-09 Online:2014-09-17 Published:2014-11-19

摘要:

回顾过去2000年中国气候变化的研究历史,总结了本领域在最近10年的新成果,并对未来研究动向进行了展望。主要内容包括:代用证据采集、过去2000年温度序列重建与冷暖期辨识、降水及干湿序列重建与变化特征分析、过去千年气候变化模拟与机制诊断、历史气候变化影响分析等。主要进展体现在:加密了中国气候变化代用资料的空间覆盖度,提升了2000年气候变化序列重建、资料分析和影响辨识等研究的定量化程度,深化了对中国过去2000年气候在年代—百年尺度的变化特征及其形成机制与影响的认识。为进一步揭示地球系统的变化规律,特别是更深入认识中国气候的时空变化规律提供了更好的基础。

关键词: 气候变化, 中国, 过去2000年, 进展, 展望

Abstract:

We reviewed the state-of-the-arts of climate change research in China over the past 2000 years and summarized the achievements during recent 10 years; the research works perspectives of this field were discussed as well. The overview mainly focuses on the development of proxy data, reconstructions of temperature and precipitation (wetness/dryness) changes for the past 2000 years, and recognition on the cold/warm periods, modeling simulation and diagnosis of climate changes for the last millennium, as well as the new findings on impacts of climate change on society in historical times. It is found that spatial coverage of proxy data increased largely and that quantifications of climate proxy indicator interpretation and impacts of climate change on society were improved. The understanding of the decadal to centennial climate change and its possible driving forces and impacts were improved. These achievements provide a solid scientific basis for revealing the rhythms of past changes in earth system, in particular for a better understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change in China and dynamics of regional climate change.

Key words: climate change, China, the past 2000 years, state-of-the-arts, perspective