中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201407003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于“理性小农”、超边际经济学等理论,建立了农户耕地集约利用解释的理论框架。构建了集约利用度指数 (CII) 和驱动力模型,分析了1996-2008年中国省域的耕地集约利用程度及其影响因素。研究结果表明：我国耕地利用集约度总体大幅度提高,但地域差异明显,初步形成了第一阶梯较高集约度、第二三阶梯较低集约度的空间格局;耕地集约利用的首要贡献来自于化肥、机械、农药等省工性劳动的大量使用,其次是资本投入和劳动力;耕地自然本底条件、耕地经济收益和劳动力生产率,与耕地集约度呈正相关,而耕地非农化效益与耕地利用集约度呈负相关。基于研究结论的政策引申：加强政策引导,科学合理使用非可再生能源等省工性劳动;切实改善农业生产条件,适度规模经营,提升劳动生产率和耕地综合生产力;提高耕地经营性经济补贴标准,激励农户稳定从事农业生产的积极性。

关键词: 耕地资源, 集约利用度, 空间格局, 影响因素, 中国

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to establish several important factors representing the land-use intensification in the cultivated land (denoted by CII) using a multi-dimensional approach for achieving realistic and practical cultivated land use policies. For this reason, the theoretical framework was firstly built to explain the changes of land-use intensification in the cultivated land, and then the variables and index were further developed for characterizing the dynamic trends and driving forces of the land-use intensification in the cultivated land at provincial level. Results indicate that the extent of CII obviously increased during the period from 1996 to 2008 due to the extensively use of fertilizers, machinery and pesticide, the increased labor and capital input as well as the intensified land use. Moreover, the principal component regression results show that the productivity of cultivated land, the economic benefits of cultivated land, the labor productivity and the land use conversion are the main factors affecting the village development. The first three factors play a positive role while the last one produces a negative effect on the land-use intensification in the cultivated land. According to these results, main policies for sustainable intensification in cultivated land are formulated. Firstly, the sustainable pathways for intensification should be adopted to reduce the unsustainable uses of chemical fertilizer, agricultural chemicals and etc. Secondly, the condition for agricultural production should be further improved to increase the cultivated land productivity. Thirdly, it is necessary and helpful for improving labor productivity and land use efficiency from the viewpoint of speeding up the cultivated land circulation.

Key words: cultivated land, land-use intensification, spatial pattern, factors, China

王国刚, 刘彦随, 陈秧分. 中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(7): 907-915.

Guogang WANG, Yansui LIU, Yangfen CHEN. Dynamic trends and driving forces of land-use intensification in the cultivated land of China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(7): 907-915.

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评价指标	计量方法	指标描述	功效
劳动力投入 (V₁)	劳动力/耕地面积	劳动力投入水平	+
化肥投入 (V₂)	化肥折纯量/耕地面积	化肥投入强度	+
农药投入 (V₃)	农药使用量/耕地面积	农药投入强度	+
机械投入 (V₄)	机械动力/耕地面积	机械使用水平	+
地均农业支出 (V₅)	农业支出/耕地面积	资金投入水平	+
复种指数 (V₆)	农作物总播种面积/耕地面积	耕地利用强度	+
相对撂荒指数% (V₇)	见注释	耕地节约度	-
耕地变化率 (V₈)	(耕地末期面积-基期面积)/耕地末期面积	耕地转型度	-
有效灌溉面积比重 (V₉)	有效灌溉面积/耕地面积	灌溉基础设施情况	+

公因子	旋转提取值		解释变量
公因子	特征根	累计方差%	V₁	V₂	V₃	V₄	V₅	V₆	V₇	V₈	V₉
1	2.24	24.85	0.57	0.87	0.79	-0.08	0.04	0.64	-0.05	-0.03	0.3
2	1.94	46.41	0.18	-0.07	0.4	0.89	0.04	0.47	0.01	-0.04	0.86
3	1.52	63.32	0.68	0.03	0.25	0.12	-0.92	0.35	0.03	-0.09	-0.06
4	1.08	75.33	-0.12	-0.12	0.04	-0.1	-0.07	-0.21	0.99	-0.05	0.11
5	1.05	87.00	0.17	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	0.2	0.13	-0.05	0.98	-0.02

变量	Y	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉
Y	1
X₁	0.605^**	1
X₂	0.147^*	0.317^**	1
X₃	-0.125*	-0.477**	-0.178**	1
X₄	0.408**	-0.017	0.148**	0.545**	1
X₅	0.529**	-0.276**	-0.1	0.689**	0.625**	1
X₆	0.643**	0.160**	0.049	0.275**	0.563**	0.038	1
X₇	-0.469**	-0.358**	-0.323**	0.347**	-0.058	0.107	-0.052	1
X₈	0.01	-0.403**	-0.367**	0.516**	0.390**	0.343**	0.233**	0.454**	1
X₉	0.580**	0.764**	0.262**	-0.182**	0.210**	-0.106	0.458**	-0.151**	0.046	1

公因子	X₁	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₉
1	0.925	0.055	-0.13	0.188	-0.148	0.913
2	-0.134	0.758	0.963	0.072	0.025	0.016
3	-0.015	0.568	-0.046	0.962	-0.018	0.306
4	-0.242	-0.078	0.075	-0.005	0.985	0.011