地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (7): 896-906.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201407002

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近300年中国耕地数据集重建与耕地变化分析

曹雪1(), 金晓斌1(), 王金朔1, 缪丽娟2, 周寅康1   

  1. 1. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 南京 210093
    2. 北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2013-08-05 修回日期:2014-03-12 出版日期:2014-07-20 发布日期:2014-09-12
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:曹雪 (1990-), 女, 黑龙江省明水县人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事土地资源管理方向的研究。E-mail: hljcaoxue@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目 (41340016);国家重点基础研究发展计划 (973计划) (2011CB952001)

Reconstruction and change analysis of cropland data of China in recent 300 years

Xue CAO1(), Xiaobin JIN1(), Jinshuo WANG1, Lijuan MIAO2, Yinkang ZHOU1   

  1. 1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2013-08-05 Revised:2014-03-12 Online:2014-07-20 Published:2014-09-12
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41340016;National Basic Research Program of China, No.2011CB952001

摘要:

针对中国历史时期不同政体耕地记录的特点,分别采用因素修正、引用替换、线性内插、衔接对比、人地关系检验、垦殖趋势检验、行政面积比例调整等方法对历史耕地数据进行修正,重建了基于现代省界的近300年中国分省耕地数据集,从数量角度对中国耕地总量和分省耕地变动特点进行分析,得到以下主要结论:① 在耕地总量上,SAGE和周荣的数据明显高估,本文结果与HYDE、CHCD和章有义数据的平均差异率在15%以下;但在省域尺度上,与SAGE、HYDE数据库存在明显差异,相对差异率>30%的省份比重分别为94%和61%,与CHCD数据较为接近,相对差异率>30%的省份比重为22%,但部分省份差异明显,仍需进一步分析研究;② 伴随清中期后的人口爆炸,近300年中国耕地增长近3.2倍,由清朝初年的42.4×106 hm2增加至1985年的136.9×106 hm2,根据增长速率变化可分为五个阶段,即清前中期快速增长阶段、清后期低速增长阶段、民国时期波动阶段、建国初期剧烈增长阶段和建国后耕地流失阶段,影响耕地变化主要是国家政策、战乱、经济发展等驱动因素。③ 从省域尺度看,近300年中国各区域耕地变化差异显著。清初,中国耕地主要集中于长江中下游平原、黄淮海平原、关中盆地及银川平原等地,此后,内地的垦殖活动不断增强,外围农区呈由南向北的趋势不断开荒。建国后,耕地开垦逐步向西北和东北方向发展。

关键词: 历史时期, 修正校验体系, 耕地变化, 垦殖趋势, 区域差异

Abstract:

Historical land-use and land-cover changes caused by human activities during the last three centuries have been regarded as one of the five key frame issues in the LUCC project. China, with a history of 5000 years, has had its population boom ever since the early Qing Dynasty (around AD1700), and unprecedented development of national agricultural reclamation had started, left China as one of areas with rapid land-use and land-cover changes. Currently, there are two global historical land use datasets, generally referred as the 'RF datasets' and 'HYDE database', but at the zonal level, these global datasets are widely doubted with coarse resolution and inevitable errors. Academics have tried to reconstruct China's historical land-use and land-cover both quantitatively and spatially, but there are remarkable differences in their results, thus bringing troubles to relevant researches. Since the quantity forms the backbone of cropland restructuring, this paper grounded itself on China's historical records and related research achievements, and reconstructed China's provincial cropland data at the modern boundaries from 1661 to 1985, using a variety of methods based on resources and population, such as factor revision, man-land relationship test, and reclamation trend examination, etc. Our results differ less from HYDE, CHCD and Zhang with an average difference rate of less than 15%. But at the provincial level, our results are closer to CHCD, with 22% of provinces' average difference rate being over 30%. But significant diversities were found in a few provinces and further researches are needed. Then we analyzed China's cropland growth process and regional change characteristics. The results show that ever since the population boom in the Qing Dynasty, China's cropland trebled from 42.4×106 ha in the early Qing Dynasty to 136.9×106 ha in 1985. In terms of the growth rate, the process of China's cropland rise can be identified into five periods. Significant differences existed among the provincial cropland change. At the beginning of the Qing dynasty, China's farming activities mainly existed in the Yangtze River Plain, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Guanzhong Basin and Yinchuan Plain. Thereafter, reclamation activities expanded to outer agriculture areas. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, Northeast China and Northwest China have been major sources of additional cropland. National policy, disasters, wars, and economic development, are main factors affecting cropland changes.

Key words: history, revised and calibrated system, cropland change, reclamation trends, regional differences