地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (5): 650-660.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201405008

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1960-2011年华南地区界限温度10℃积温时空变化分析

戴声佩1,2, 李海亮1,2, 罗红霞1,2, 赵一飞3   

  1. 1. 中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所, 海南儋州 571737;
    2. 海南省热带作物信息技术应用研究重点实验室, 海南儋州 571737;
    3. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 南京 210093
  • 收稿日期:2013-10-30 修回日期:2013-12-28 出版日期:2014-05-20 发布日期:2014-05-20
  • 作者简介:戴声佩（1986-），男，安徽安庆人，助理研究员，主要从事资源环境与农业遥感方面的研究。E-mail:shengpeidai@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（973项目）（2010CB951502）；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费中国热带农业科学院院本级专项项目（1630012012017；1630012013012；1630012014020）

The spatio-temporal change of active accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ in Southern China from 1960 to 2011

DAI Shengpei1,2, LI Hailiang1,2, LUO Hongxia1,2, ZHAO Yifei3   

  1. 1. Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, CATAS, Danzhou 571737, Hainan, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Practical Research on Tropical Crops Information Technology in Hainan, Danzhou 571737, Hainan, China;
    3. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2013-10-30 Revised:2013-12-28 Published:2014-05-20 Online:2014-05-20
  • Supported by:
    National Basic Program of China (973 Program), No. 2010CB951502；The Fundamental Research Founds forChinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences (CATAS), No.1630012012017;No.1630012013012;No.1630012014020

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摘要： 选用福建、广东、广西、云南和海南5 省区104 个及周边39 个资料序列较长的气象站点1960-2011 年逐日平均气温实测数据，采用气候倾向率和累计距平法，以及基于多元线性回归模型的积温空间模拟方法，分析了1960-2011 年华南地区日平均气温稳定≥ 10℃期间积温的时空变化。结果表明：（1）从时间尺度上看，1960 年以来，研究区日平均气温稳定≥ 10℃期间积温呈现增加趋势，其变化倾向率为7.54℃/10a。小于6000℃所占区域面积占总面积的比例有逐年减少的规律；大于6000℃小于8000℃所占区域面积占总面积的比例在1960-1969年、1970-1979 年呈减少趋势，在1990-1999 年、2000-2011 年呈增加趋势；大于8000℃所占区域的面积占总面积的比例呈明显增加的趋势。（2）从空间尺度上来看，研究区日平均气温稳定≥10℃期间积温呈现由南向北逐渐降低的趋势，并且随海拔高度的升高而减少。其空间分布以大于5000℃小于8000℃所占区域的面积最大；其次是大于4000℃小于5000℃所占区域的面积；小于4000℃、大于8000℃所占区域的面积最小。研究区99%的站点日平均气温稳定≥10℃期间积温气候倾向率大于零，表明研究区日平均气温稳定≥10℃期间积温总体增加趋势明显，增加趋势最明显的区域分布在云南中部、广东南部和海南岛等地区。（3）对比时段I（1960-1989 年）和时段II（1980-2011 年）的气候带分布变化情况，边缘热带和南、中亚热带区域逐渐扩大，北亚热带和温带区域呈减小的趋势，气候带的分布在气候变暖形势下呈现出整体向高海拔扩张和向高纬度北移的趋势。（4）积温的增加对热量要求较高的热带作物生产种植提供了有利条件，种植界限向北、向高海拔扩展，该地区适宜种植热带作物的区域有所增加。

关键词: 时空变化, 华南地区, 多元线性回归模型, 积温, 空间模拟

Abstract: The spatial and temporal variation of active accumulated temperature ≥10℃(AAT10) was analyzed by using the linear trend line method, cumulative anomaly method and multiple linear regression interpolation method based on the daily meteorological observation data from 104 meteorological stations in Southern China and surrounding 39 meteorological stations during 1960-2011. The result shows that: (1) From time scale point of view, the climatic trend of AAT10 increased with an average of 7.54oC/10a in Southern China since 1960. The area of AAT10<6000℃decreased from 1960 to 2011, and the area of 6000℃8000℃ increased from 1960 to 2011. (2) From spatial scale point of view, the AAT10 in Southern China was reduced with increasing latitude and increasing altitude. The area of 5000℃8000℃ were the least. The climate trend rate at 99% of the meteorological stations of the AAT10 was greater than zero, suggesting that the AAT10 increased significantly in the central Yunnan province, southern Guangdong province and Hainan Island. (3) Comparison of period I (1960-1989) and period II (1980-2011) with the change of climatic zones indicates that the North Tropical Zone, South Subtropical Zone and Central Subtropical Zone gradually expanded, and North Subtropical Zone and Temperate Zone showed a decreasing trend. The change of climatic zones expanded to high altitude and latitude. (4) The increase of AAT10 is conducive to the production of tropical crops planted, which will increase the planting area suitable for tropical crops, and expand the planting boundaries to high latitude and high altitude.

Key words: spatio-temporal change, multiple linear regression model (MLRM), southern China, active accumulated temperature ≥10℃(AAT10), spatial simulation