1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化

doi:10.11821/dlxb201405007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于国家气象信息中心发布的1961-2011 年全国0.5°×0.5°逐日降水量数据集和气象站点日降水量实测资料，评估了该套格点降水资料在中国南方地区的可信度，并选取了世界气象组织等推荐的5 个极端降水指数，利用格点资料研究了中国南方地区的极端降水事件变化。结果表明，内插到气象站点位置的格点资料和气象站点实测数据之间的偏差普遍较小，偏差在-10%~0 之间的站点个数占总个数的50.64%，在绝大多数区域二者之间的相关系数均在0.80 以上；各极端降水指数的多年平均值表现出明显的空间分布规律，越靠近西北方向越干旱，而越靠近东南方向越湿润；1961-2011 年间，最大5 日降水量（RX5day）、极端降水量（R95）、日降水量≥ 20mm天数（R20mm）和日降水强度（SDII）的年际倾向率分别为0.17 mm·a^-1、1.14 mm·a^-1、0.02 d·a^-1和0.01 mm·d^-1·a^-1，持续降水日数（CWD）则以-0.05d·a^-1的速率减少；各极端降水指数的变化趋势存在空间差异，RX5day、SDII 和R95 呈增加趋势的格点所占比例分别为60.85%、75.32%和75.74%；各极端降水指数与总降水量之间均存在较好的相关性，且均通过了0.01 水平的置信度检验。

关键词: 极端降水, 格点数据, 中国南方

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation from a 0.5° × 0.5° gridded dataset and meteorological stations during 1961-2011 released by National Meteorological Information Center, this paper evaluates the reliability of this gridded precipitation dataset in South China. Five precipitation indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) were selected to investigate the changes in precipitation extremes in South China. The results indicate that the limited bias was observed between gridded data interpolated to given stations and the corresponding observed data, and that 50.64% of the stations had bias between -10% and 0. Generally, the correlation coefficients between gridded data and observed data are above 0.80 in most parts of the region. The average of precipitation indices shows a significant spatial difference with drier northwest section and wetter southeast section. The trend magnitudes of maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), very wet day precipitation (R95), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm) and simple daily intensity index (SDII) were 0.17 mm·a^-1, 1.14 mm·a^-1, 0.02 d·a^-1 and 0.01 mm·d·a^-1, respectively, while consecutive wet days (CWD) decreased by -0.05 d·a^-1 during 1961-2011. There is spatial disparity in trend magnitudes of precipitation indices, and approximate 60.85%, 75.32% and 75.74% of the grid boxes showed increasing trends for RX5day, SDII and R95, respectively. There were high correlations between precipitation indices and total precipitation, which was statistically significant at the 0.01 level.

Key words: gridded data, precipitation extremes, South China

任正果, 张明军, 王圣杰, 朱小凡, 董蕾, 强芳. 1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(5): 640-649.

REN Zhengguo, ZHANG Mingjun, WANG Shengjie, ZHU Xiaofan, DONG Lei, QIANG Fang. Changes in precipitation extremes in South China during 1961-2011[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(5): 640-649.

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