1954-2011年间珠江入海水沙通量变化的多尺度分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201403013

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于高要（西江）、石角（北江）和博罗（东江）水文站1954-2011 年的连续径流量和输沙率资料，采用Mann-Kendall 非参数秩次检验和小波分析的方法，分析珠江流域的入海水沙通量变化特征。结果显示：（1）1954-2011 年珠江的入海径流量没有明显变化趋势，但输沙率呈明显下降趋势，其间不同阶段的变化趋势不同：1954-1983 年珠江水沙均处于增长阶段，该阶段气候变化和人类活动对输沙的贡献率分别是70%和30%；1984-1993 年珠江水沙通量呈先降后升（1989 年是转折点）波动阶段，主要与气候变化有关；1994-2011 年珠江的水沙通量均呈下降趋势；气候变化和人类活动对输沙率下降的贡献率分别是20%和80%。（2）龙滩水库蓄水后的2007-2011 年与2006 年以前相比，珠江年均入海径流量减少了14%，而年均入海输沙率是减幅达到70%。这一时期水库蓄水和水土保持对输沙率减少的贡献率达到90%以上；（3）珠江的水沙通量变化具有明显年代际周期和年际周期变化特征，且不同子流域的周期有所不同。例如西江的径流量主要存在24 年和13 年的年代际周期以及4~7 年的年际周期，而输沙率主要存在16 年左右和10 年左右的年代际周期和4~7 年的年际周期；北江径流量主要存在12 年左右年代际周期和2 年左右以及8 年左右的年际周期和和输沙率年代际周期主要13-16 年，而年际周期是4~7 年和2~3 年；东江的径流和输沙率主要存在12 年左右年代际周期和2 年左右以及6 年左右的年际周期。这些年代际和年际变化周期与珠江流域降雨量的变化周期有较好关联性。

关键词: 水沙通量, 小波分析, 珠江, Mann-Kendall趋势分析

Abstract: This paper is based on hydrological data gathered from Gaoyao (West River), Shijiao (North River) and Boluo (East River) stations in the Pearl River from 1954 to 2011, and the temporal and spatial variations in water discharge and sediment load are analyzed by Mann-Kendall trend test and wavelet analysis. The results are shown as follows. (1) There is no significant trend in water discharge, but a significant decreasing trend in sediment load during 1954-2011 due to impacts of climate change and human activities. Furthermore, there are different trends in different periods. From 1954 to 1983, both water discharge and sediment load show an increasing trend. The contribution rates of climate change and human activities are about 70% and 30%, respectively. From 1984 to 1993, there are undulating phases in water discharge and sediment load (1989 is the changing point), which is mainly resulted from climate change. From 1994 to 2011, both water discharge and sediment load show a decreased trend, and the contribution rates of climate change and human activity to sediment load are about 20% and 80%, respectively. (2) Compared with the data before 2006 when Longtan Dam started operation, the annual average water discharge from 2007 to 2011 decreases by 14%, meanwhile the annual average sediment load decreased by 70% . The contribution rates of reservoirs and soil and water conservation are about 90%. (3) There are apparent decadal cycle periods (DCPs) and annual cycle periods (ACPs) for water discharge and sediment load in different tributaries of the Pearl River, with cycle periods varying among different tributaries. For example in the West River the DCPs of water discharge were mainly 24 yr and 13 yr and ACPs were 4-7 yr, while for sediment loads the DCPs were ~16 yr and 10 yr, and the ACPs were 4-7 yr. In the North River, the significant DCPs of water discharge were about 12 yr, and the ACPs were 2 yr and 8 yr, but the significant DCPs of sediment load were about 13-16 yr, and the ACPs were 4-7 yr and 2-3 yr, respectively. In the East River, both the water discharge and sediment load had 12 yr of DCPs and 2 yr and 6 yr of ACPs. These periodic variations may be related with periodic variations of precipitation in the Pearl River Basin.

Key words: the flux of water discharge and sediment load, Mann-Kendall trend test, Pearl River, wavelet analysis

吴创收, 杨世伦, 黄世昌, 王珊珊. 1954-2011年间珠江入海水沙通量变化的多尺度分析[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(3): 422-432.

WU Chuangshou, YANG Shilun, HUANG Shichang, WANG Shanshan. Multi-scale variability of water discharge and sediment load in the Pearl River during 1954-2011[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(3): 422-432.

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