地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (3): 353-364.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201403007

• 自然地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于作物空间分配模型的东北三省春玉米时空分布特征

谭杰扬1, 李正国1, 杨鹏1, 刘珍环2, 李志鹏1, 张莉1, 吴文斌1, 游良志3, 唐华俊1   

  1. 1. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所/农业部农业信息技术重点实验室, 北京100081;
    2. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院, 广州510275;
    3. Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033K Street, NW, Washington DC 20006, USA
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-26 修回日期:2013-11-20 出版日期:2014-03-20 发布日期:2014-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 李正国(1980- ),男,江西上饶人,博士,副研究员,主要从事全球变化与农业遥感方面研究。E-mail:lizhengguo@caas.cn
  • 作者简介:谭杰扬(1991- ),男,湖南蓝山人,硕士研究生,主要从事全球变化对农业影响研究。E-mail:tanjieyang@caas.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41171328;41201184;40930101);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951502)

Spatiotemporal changes of maize sown area and yield in Northeast China between 1980 and 2010 using spatial production allocation model

TAN Jieyang1, LI Zhengguo1, YANG Peng1, LIU Zhenhuan2, LI Zhipeng1, ZHANG Li1, WU Wenbin1, YOU Liangzhi3, TANG Huajun1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. Geography and Planning School of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    3. Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006, USA
  • Received:2013-07-26 Revised:2013-11-20 Online:2014-03-20 Published:2014-03-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41171328;No.41201184,No.40930101;National Basic Program of China,No.2010CB951502

摘要: 利用1980-2010 年东北三省分县玉米播种面积与产量统计、耕地分布、农业灌溉分布以及作物适宜性分布等多源数据,结合基于交叉信息熵原理的作物空间分配模型(Spatial Production Allocation Model,SPAM),在5'×5'的像元尺度模拟了春玉米种植面积与产量的时空分布,并重点分析了两者在纬向、经向,以及高程上的时空变化规律。结果显示:(1)玉米种植面积在2000 年前向北扩展至北纬44°~48°间,2000 年后在中南部出现大规模发展(北纬42°~44°),并进一步向东扩展至东经123°~127°间,同时还表现为向低海拔(高程100 m以下)和较高海拔(高程200~350 m)扩展的态势;(2)单产在纬向上的增加区主要集中在北纬42°~48°,经向上的单产增加则相对均匀,高程上单产提升区主要集中在海拔350 m以下。(3)像元内玉米种植比例整体上由中低种植比例为主逐步演变为中高比例占据主体,并且中高种植比例像元对应的玉米单产水平整体上较高,反映了市场经济驱动下的玉米种植集聚化和规模化的发展趋势。

关键词: 时空变化, 春玉米, 作物空间分配模型, 东北三省

Abstract: Understanding crop patterns and their changes on a large scale is a critical requirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for analyzing crop sown area and yield on spatiotemporal variations are still insufficient currently. By the use of cross-entropy method, a Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) was developed. Combined with geographic spatiotemporal analysis methods, a case study was further presented to analyze the spatial characteristics of maize sown area and yield in Northeast China during 1980-2010 within 5' × 5' grid cells. The results indicated the following: (1) Maize sown area mainly expanded northwards during 1980-2000 (located at 44° N-48° N) and then concentrated at central and southern in Northeast China on latitudinal variations in the following years. Also it moved eastwards (located at 123°E to 127°E) and lower elevation (below 100m) as well as higher elevation (mainly from 200 m to 350 m) region on longitudinal and altitudinal variations, respectively. (2) Maize yield which has been improved largely mainly located at 42°N to 48°N and concentrated at the region below the altitude of 350 m on latitudinal and altitudinal variations, respectively, while its increase is relatively homogeneous on longitudinal variations. (3) Additionally, dominant maize proportion on a pixel scale has developed to middle-high proportion gradually during 1980-2010, and maize yield located at the pixel of middle-high proportion seems higher, which reflected the trends of agglomeration and large-scale development of maize cultivation driven by market economy.

Key words: Northeast China, spring maize, spatiotemporal changes, spatial production allocation model