地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (3): 291-302.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201403001

• 气候环境变化 •    下一篇

近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子

姚俊强1, 刘志辉1,2,3, 杨青4, 刘洋1, 李诚志2, 胡文峰5   

  1. 1. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐830046;
    2. 新疆大学干旱生态环境研究所, 乌鲁木齐830046;
    3. 干旱半干旱区可持续发展国际研究中心, 乌鲁木齐830046;
    4. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 乌鲁木齐830002;
    5. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 干旱区水循环与水资源研究中心, 兰州730000
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-10 修回日期:2014-01-09 出版日期:2014-03-20 发布日期:2014-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 刘志辉,E-mail:lzh@xju.edu.cn E-mail:lzh@xju.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:姚俊强,男,甘肃通渭人,博士生,研究方向为干旱区气候变化和水资源模拟。E-mail:yaojq1987@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家国际科技合作项目(2010DFA92720-12);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC23B01);国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2010CB951001);教育部创新团队项目(IRT1180)

Temperature variability and its possible causes in the typical basins of the arid Central Asia in recent 130 years

YAO Junqiang1, LIU Zhihui1,2,3, YANG Qing4, LIU Yang1, LI Chengzhi2, HU Wenfeng5   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
    2. Institute of Arid Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
    3. International Center for Desert Affairs-Research on Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-arid Lands, Urumqi 830046, China;
    4. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China;
    5. College of Resources and Environment, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2013-07-10 Revised:2014-01-09 Online:2014-03-20 Published:2014-06-10
  • Supported by:
    The International S&TCooperation Program of China,No.2010DFA92720-12;The National Key Technology R&D Program of China,No.2012BAC23B01;National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program),No.2010CB951001;TheProgram for Innovative Research Team in University of China,No.IRT1180

摘要: 利用中亚干旱区5 大主要典型流域代表性气象站点近130 年逐月实测气温数据,结合线性趋势、Mann-Kenndall 非参数检验和小波分析等方法,研究了各流域气温的多时间尺度特征,并探讨了引起气温变化的可能因素。研究发现,在近130 年来中亚干旱区各主要流域(除阿姆河外)年均气温均呈上升趋势,增温趋势高于全球和周边地区,中亚干旱区气温对全球变化的响应比其他地区更加明显。20 世纪80 年代之后更加明显,并表现出明显的多时间尺度周期振荡特征,这主要是自然外强迫动力作用、气候系统内部变化和人类活动相互叠加的结果,亚洲极涡强度减弱和面积缩小对主要流域气温变化的作用明显,其次是北半球环状模(北极涛动)和青藏高原的影响,而CO2引起的温室气体增温效应在中亚干旱区也不容忽视。气温表现出与布吕克纳周期(BC)、太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和准2~3 年振荡周期(TBO)等有关的显著周期,可以证实中亚干旱区气温变化与大气环流、海温和太阳活动等密切相关。

关键词: 小波分析, CO2排放量, 中亚干旱区, 气温, 多时间尺度, 亚洲极涡

Abstract: Basin-scale is of the special significance to the climate change research in arid areas. In this study, data from five typical basins of the arid Central Asia are analyzed to investigate changes in annual temperature during the period of 1881-2011. The nonparametric Mann- Kendall test, wavelet analysis and the correlation analysis are used to identify trend, multiple time scale feature and their possible causes in the annual temperature. The results show that the average annual temperature had an increasing trend in the main basins (except Amu Darya Basin) of the arid Central Asia in the past 130 years. The rising rate is consistent with that of the northern hemisphere, much higher than that of the global average and surrounding region, suggesting that the arid Central Asia is more sensitive to climate change than other regions. Abrupt change point in annual temperature occurred around the year of 1986, and showed significant multi-time scale periodic oscillation, which is mainly due to the physical external force and internal climate-control system. The Central Asian vortexes' activity has a significant effect on annual temperature of the typical basins, followed by the northern annual mode cycle variation and the Tibetan Plateau, while the greenhouse effect caused by CO2 gas emissions in the arid Central Asia can not be ignored. Temperatures show an aperiodic cycle which is related to the BC, PDO and TBO, and we can confirm that temperature in the arid Central Asia is closely related to the atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature and solar activity.

Key words: multi-time scale, temperature variability, Central Asian vortexes activity, CO2 emissions, Central Asia, wavelet analysis