地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (2): 199-212.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201402005

• 农村发展与土地利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国“四化”协调发展的区域格局及其影响因素

李裕瑞1,2, 王婧1,2, 刘彦随1,2, 龙花楼1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2013-03-25 修回日期:2013-10-24 出版日期:2014-02-20 发布日期:2014-04-04
  • 作者简介:李裕瑞(1983-),男,四川隆昌人,博士,助理研究员,中国地理学会会员(S110009440M),研究方向为土地利用、区域农业与农村发展。E-mail:lyr2008@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目项目(41201176, 41130748, 41171149);中国博士后科学基金项目(2012M520365)

Spatial pattern and influencing factors of the coordination development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in China:A prefecture level exploratory spatial data analysis

LI Yurui1,2, WANG Jing1,2, LIU Yansui1,2, LONG Hualou1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2013-03-25 Revised:2013-10-24 Online:2014-02-20 Published:2014-04-04
  • Contact: 刘彦随(1965-),男,陕西绥德人,博士,研究员、博士生导师,中国地理学会会员(S110005331M),主要从事土地利用和农村发展研究。E-mail:liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41201176; No.41171149; No.41130748; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, No.2012M520365

摘要: 工业化、城镇化、信息化与农业现代化(简称“四化”) 是促进城乡统筹和区域发展的现实需要与战略导向。本文着力构建综合评价指标体系以揭示我国地级区域四化协调发展的空间格局,借助空间计量经济模型探讨四化协调发展的影响因素,结合相关分析探讨四化协调指数与区域发展主要指标的关联关系,建立识别方法开展基于四化发展状态的问题区域识别研究。结果表明:四化各自发展水平、综合指数、耦合度、协调度均存在明显的空间差异;四化协调发展水平越高,区域经济发展水平和农村发展水平越高,而城乡居民的收入差距和消费差距越低;社会经济、交通区位及自然地理类要素对四化协调状况有不同程度的影响,尤以农业和农村的社会投资、财政投入及金融支持,以及大中型企业发展、道路基础设施建设、居民消费等因素对四化协调发展的影响更为稳健而积极;识别出四化发展存在若干问题的7 类计145 个地市,主要分布在中部传统农区、西南山地丘陵区和青藏高原区。在城乡转型发展新时期,推进四化协调发展既需要共性制度创新,还需要针对问题区域及其区域问题研制区域政策,有必要继续加大对农业农村的社会投资、财政投入与金融扶持力度,积极扩大内需,优化外向型经济发展战略,提升城镇投资和教育投资的效率。

关键词: 信息化, 城镇化, “四化”协调, 问题区域, 工业化, 农业现代化, 空间格局, 影响因素

Abstract: The coordination development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization (so called "Sihua Tongbu" in Chinese, and hereinafter referred to as "new four modernizations"; China first put forward the term of "four modernizations" in the early 1960s, targeting the fields of industry, agriculture, national defense and science and technology) is practical need and strategic direction of integrating urban-rural development and regional development in recent China. This study mainly aims to explore the spatial pattern and influencing factors of coordination development of new four modernizations of China's prefecture-level regions. Firstly, we established a comprehensive evaluation index system to reveal the spatial pattern of coordination development of new four modernizations. And then, Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the relationship between the coordinating degrees of new four modernizations and main indicators reflecting regional development state. Thirdly, a spatial econometric model was employed to explore the factors affecting the coordination development of the new four modernizations. Moreover, a set of rules based on the coordination development level of the new four modernizations has been established to identify the problematic region. The main contents and results were summed up as follows: (1) the respective development level of the new four modernizations and the coupling degree and coordinating degree of the new four modernizations shows obvious spatial difference. (2) The coordinating degree of new four modernizations is at relatively low level, and has significant positive correlation with per capita net income of farmers and per capita gross domestic product, and in contrast, it has significant negative correlation with both the income gap and consumption gap between urban and rural residents. (3) Socio-economic conditions, traffic location and physical geography conditions show obvious impacts on the coordinating state of new four modernizations, especially, on social investment, financial investment and financial support on agriculture and rural areas, as well as development level of large and medium-sized enterprise, road infrastructure density and social consumption, have robust and positive impacts on the coordinating state of new four modernizations. (4) A total of 145 prefecture-level cities have been identified as problematic regions according to their coordinating states of new four modernizations. These cities are mainly located in the traditional agricultural zones of central China, hilly areas of southwest China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our findings may contribute to the knowledge of coordination development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in the new era of urban-rural transformation development. To promote the coordination development of new four modernizations needs for top-level design, common institutional innovation, and regional policy innovation specifically for problematic regions. In addition, more social investment, financial investment and financial support for agricultural and rural development should be encouraged, and more attention should be paid to expand domestic demand actively, optimize the export-oriented economic development strategy, and enhance the efficiency of the investment in urban construction and education development.

Key words: informatization, urbanization, the coordination development of new four modernizations, problematic region, industrialization, agricultural modernization, spatial pattern, influencing factor