地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 68 ›› Issue (12): 1595-1606.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201312001

• 城乡发展 •    下一篇

中国城市建设用地扩张与财政收入增长的面板格兰杰因果检验

王丰龙1, 刘云刚2   

  1. 1. 香港浸会大学地理系, 香港九龙塘;
    2. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院, 广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室, 广州510275
  • 收稿日期:2013-03-24 修回日期:2013-07-27 出版日期:2013-12-20 发布日期:2014-03-21
  • 通讯作者: 刘云刚（1973-），男，教授，中国地理学会会员（S110005141M），主要从事城市地理学、政治地理学研究。E-mail：liuyung@mail.sysu.edu.cn E-mail:liuyung@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:王丰龙（1988-），男，内蒙古赤峰人，博士研究生，主要从事地理学理论、行为地理和计量地理研究。E-mail：wfldragon@yahoo.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（41271165；41130747）；教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金（12YJAGJW007）；香港研究资助局优配研究金（GRF）项目（HKBU244610）

Panel Granger Test on urban land expansion and fiscal revenue growth in China’s prefecture-level cities

WANG Fenglong1, LIU Yungang2   

  1. 1. Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong;
    2. School of Geography Sciences and Planning, and Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
  • Received:2013-03-24 Revised:2013-07-27 Online:2013-12-20 Published:2014-03-21
  • About author:10.11821/dlxb201312001
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41271165; No.41130747; Research Programme Fund of Humanities and Social Sciences, No.12YJAGJW007; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China, No. GRF HKBU244610

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摘要： 土地开发已成为当前研究的一个焦点，但是对“土地财政”现象的研究仍集中在其形成机制方面，而很少证实土地是否及如何推动了地方财政收入的增长。为此，本文基于《城市统计年鉴》（1985-2011） 的面板数据，构建面板误差修正模型和随机效应模型，运用格兰杰因果检验探讨城市建设用地扩张与城市财政收入增长之间的因果关系，并对“土地财政”的影响机制、区域差异和开发效率进行初步探讨。结果显示，从1995 年开始，中国城市的土地开发是推动其地方财政收入增长的格兰杰原因。但是这种效应主要为即期的影响，而对房地产开发和工业增值税的长期推动效果不太显著，这暗示了土地财政在中国有过度的倾向。从区域差异来看，土地开发对地方财政收入的推动幅度在中西部地区或在100 万人口以上的超大城市更大，且随城市规模的增加其影响效果更为显著。

关键词: 土地财政, 格兰杰因果检验, 财政收入, 区域差异, 城市建设用地

Abstract: Land development in China has been a popular research topic in existing studies. It is not only mobilized by municipalities to attract investments and promote local economic growth, but also become the trigger to ignite various land-related conflicts. While quite a few researches have focused on the institutional contexts of "land coffer", the effects of urban land expansion on the growth of local fiscal revenue remain poorly examined. Moreover, less attention has been paid to the "land coffer" in different industries in cities with various characteristics. To help narrow this gap, this paper initiates a preliminary inquiry to the causality between expansion of urban built-up land and growth of local fiscal revenue based on the panel vector error correction model (VECM). Using data from City Statistical Yearbook (1985-2011), this study examines the mechanisms, efficiency and regional differences of fiscalization of land among Chinese municipal governments based on random effect models. The findings indicate that the growth of urban land is the Granger cause of local fiscal revenue since 1995. However, the expansion of urban built-up land caused only a transient increase in local fiscal revenue and had no significant long-term effect on the development of housing or manufacturing industries, which suggests that the urban land development in China mainly contributes to local fiscal revenue through short-term land expropriation, which has been excessively extracted and doomed to be unsustainable. As for the spatial differences among the three regions in China, the promoting effects of land development are more significant within the cities in eastern region or those with a larger population size. Nonetheless, land development generally has negative effects on housing and manufacturing industries for Northeast China, central region and western region in the long run. This implies that the intensifying land expropriation across the country is rather short-sighted. To prevent waste of precious farmland in the ongoing urban sprawl and the upcoming round of "small city-township" development (chengzhenhua), we call for more compact land development and reform of current land system.

Key words: regional difference, fiscal revenue, land coffer, Panel Granger Test, urban built-up land